Update: DoD and Iraqi officials believe Ukrainian airliner was accidentally shot down by Iranian Tor M-1 SAM

[osxmatt]

 

[CastlevaniaNut18]

Well, that’s crazy. 

[Comet]

What is happening 

[CayceG]

31 minutes ago, Comet said:

What is happening 

 

 

Lots of unconnected things, simultaneously. 

[CitizenVectron]

Looks like 176 people, including crew. Surprisingly, a lot of Canadians:

 

Iran: 82

Canada: 63

Ukraine: 11

Sweden: 10

Afghanistan: 4

UK: 3

Germany: 3

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51029994?fbclid=IwAR00zgrccRisowDkPZFmUhKu5U6xU59zXR8-4QxiUXNU6udH_eJGRPmjCR0

[AbsolutSurgen]

63 Canadians among dead after Ukrainian plane crash in Iran, Ukraine says

Quote

The crash came hours after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Iraqi bases housing U.S. soldiers, but Iranian officials said they suspected a mechanical issue brought down the 3½-year-old Boeing 737-800 aircraft. Ukrainian officials initially agreed, but later backed away and declined to offer a cause while the investigation is ongoing.

Airline officials said most of the passengers were en route to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, transiting through to other destinations. Staff at Boryspil International Airport in Kyiv told The Associated Press that passengers on this flight are usually Iranian students returning to Ukraine after winter holidays.

Ukraine International Airlines said it had indefinitely suspended flights to Tehran after the crash.

"It was one of the best planes we had, with an amazing, reliable crew," Yevhen Dykhne, the airline's president, said at a briefing following the crash.

A Ukraine International Airlines statement said it is working to confirm the accuracy of reports regarding the cause of the crash.

"Our task is to establish the cause of the crash of the Boeing and provide all necessary help to the families of the victims," said parliament speaker Dmytro Razumkov in a Facebook statement.

The airline said it indefinitely suspended flights to Tehran after the crash.

Hassan Razaeifar, head of air crash investigation committee, said it appeared the pilot couldn't communicate with air-traffic controllers in Tehran in the last moments of the flight. He did not elaborate.

Qassem Biniaz, a spokesperson for Iran's Road and Transportation Ministry, said it appeared a fire struck one of its engines. The pilot of the aircraft then lost control of the plane, sending it crashing into the ground, Biniaz said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency.

Under international rules, responsibility for investigating the crash lies with Iran, and Iranian state television said both of the plane's black boxes had been found.

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Iran will not give black box from crashed Ukrainian airliner to Boeing - Mehr

Quote

Iran will not give the black box of the crashed Ukrainian airliner to planemaker Boeing, the head of Tehran’s civil aviation organisation was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Ali Abedzadeh also said it was not clear which country Iran would send the box to so that its data could be analysed, semi-official Mehr news agency reported.

A Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737 crashed earlier on Wednesday, killing all 176 people aboard shortly after taking off from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini airport.

 

[Joe]

That thing was attacked.

[AbsolutSurgen]

3 minutes ago, Jose said:

That thing was attacked.

I cannot imagine the Iranian (or U.S.) military deliberately attacking this plane.  An exploding engine is certainly possible, it has happened before.

 

Given the situation, with missile strikes occurring mere hours before, it is not hard to imagine situations where the flight was accidentally shot down.

If Iran does not have an "open investigation" on the crash, I am sure that many will assume that is the case.

[Joe]

6 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I cannot imagine the Iranian (or U.S.) military deliberately attacking this plane.  An exploding engine is certainly possible, it has happened before.

 

Given the situation, with missile strikes occurring mere hours before, it is not hard to imagine situations where the flight was accidentally shot down.

If Iran does not have an "open investigation" on the crash, I am sure that many will assume that is the case.

 

True! It was probably an accident.

[CitizenVectron]

I don't know why a country would give black boxes to Boeing...any country would want to investigate the crash itself. There is a chance that Iran shot it down by accident, but them wanting to keep the black box doesn't lend any credence to that possibility. 

 

Not directed at anyone here, I've just seen this mentioned online!

[AbsolutSurgen]

15 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

I don't know why a country would give black boxes to Boeing...any country would want to investigate the crash itself. There is a chance that Iran shot it down by accident, but then wanting to keep the black box doesn't lend any credence to that possibility. 

 

Not directed at anyone here, I've just seen this mentioned online!

I don't know if Iran has the technical capability to read a black box.  (I am not an expert, but I have heard that it requires specialized training and equipment.)

My understanding is that they have had to leverage outside expertise in the past (i.e. the French BEA helped them after flight ATR 72-212 crashed in 2018).  To your point, Boeing is not necessarily the right people to do the analysis.  I am assuming they should/will do something similar here.

[CayceG]

If any of you fuckers start saying it was shot down without any evidence (and I've seen some things that people are using to justify that--and they are NOT valid) I'm going to fight some of you. 

[Bacon]

"It was shot down" says this source.

[SuperSpreader]

9 minutes ago, Bacon said:

"It was shot down" says this source.

No Mayo Pete no!

[Joe]

1 hour ago, CayceG said:

If any of you fuckers start saying it was shot down without any evidence (and I've seen some things that people are using to justify that--and they are NOT valid) I'm going to fight some of you. 

 

Not necessarily shot down, but planes don't just randomnly burst into flames in the air.

[CayceG]

3 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Not necessarily shot down, but planes don't just randomnly burst into flames in the air.

 

Correct. They don't randomly burst into flames. But they sometimes do burst into flames, and rarely is a missile the cause of that. 

[Joe]

Yep, but there are other ways to bring down a plane.

[AbsolutSurgen]

14 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

Correct. They don't randomly burst into flames. But they sometimes do burst into flames, and rarely is a missile the cause of that. 

3.5-year old planes rarely have their engines explode for no reason.  My understanding is that a 737 can normally fly on one engine.  This crash looks "suspicious".

[AbsolutSurgen]

What we know so far about Boeing plane that crashed in Iran

Quote

According to aviation expert John Cox, chief executive officer of Washington, D.C.-based Safety Operating Systems, the plane is a "workhorse airplane" that has been in service for many years with a "very, very good safety record." That's unlike the Boeing 737 Max, a newer plane that has been grounded after two fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia that killed 346 people within five months in 2018 and 2019.

Cox called the crash in Tehran "very unusual" for 737-800.

….

According to the plane's radar data, the plane took off and climbed normally during the first two minutes of the flight. Then it stopped transmitting data.

Cox says that indicates something probably interrupted the power to the transmitters. Typically, he says, when that happens, a second generator will supply power. That does not appear to have happened in this case. He called it "very unusual."

 

Quote

Keith Mackey, president of Mackey International, an aviation consulting firm specializing in safety and risk management, suggested that, given the plane's recorded speed and altitude during takeoff, which were normal, and the fact that it landed very close to its last recorded location, the cause was probably not an engine failure.

Mackey, a former pilot and aircraft accident investigator, said an engine problem would have made the plane unable to climb that quickly. He added that in the case of an engine fire or similar problem, the pilots would likely have been able to steer the plane and land it safely.

"We know the the aircraft very suddenly and inexplicably descended," he told CBC News Network Wednesday morning.

"What happened is consistent with what we would expect to happen if there was a bomb blast or some sort of explosion on the aircraft."

 

Trudeau says plane crash in Iran that killed 63 Canadians will be 'thoroughly investigated'

Quote

"On behalf of the government of Canada, Sophie and I offer our deepest condolences to those who have lost family, friends, and loved ones in this tragedy. Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that this crash is thoroughly investigated and that Canadians' questions are answered," he said.

"Today, I assure all Canadians that their safety and security is our top priority. We also join with the other countries who are mourning the loss of citizens."

Trudeau is expected to hold a news conference and take questions this afternoon.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Not to say that there couldn't be some other explanation...but sometimes things just go wrong, even to workhouse, reliable pieces of technology. Things only work until they don't. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

Quote

Given the crew's experience, error probability is minimal.  We do not even consider such a chance.

 

[CitizenVectron]

If this was an accident, then it could be the fault of ground crews not doing a proper inspection, a part that shorted out far before its life expectancy, etc. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

[Bacon]

Iran plane crash may have been ‘shootdown event’, aviation experts say

[SilentWorld]

58 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

Correct. They don't randomly burst into flames. But they sometimes do burst into flames, and rarely is a missile the cause of that. 

But sometimes a missile is a cause of that.

[AbsolutSurgen]

37 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Not to say that there couldn't be some other explanation...but sometimes things just go wrong, even to workhouse, reliable pieces of technology. Things only work until they don't. 

 

6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

If this was an accident, then it could be the fault of ground crews not doing a proper inspection, a part that shorted out far before its life expectancy, etc. 

It "could" be a mechanical failure.

Given the excellent safety record of the airline, this particular plane, and these pilots -- a mechanical failure is looking less and less probable.

Given the circumstances that are still coming to light, most aviation experts that have made comments are suggesting an explosive device is most likely.  (eg. a missile, or a bomb on a timer or altitude sensor)

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CayceG]

1 hour ago, Bacon said:

Iran plane crash may have been ‘shootdown event’, aviation experts say

 

This link the Independent uses goes to a website that presents photos showing shrapnel damage. Except that the photos in question have been debunked as showing shrapnel damage. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[Joe]

Not trying to be RSF up in here, but if you don't think this is suspicious, you crazyyyyy.

[CayceG]

Prove that this points to a shootdown at this point in time. 

 

Give me all your evidence. 

[Joe]

12 minutes ago, CayceG said:

Prove that this points to a shootdown at this point in time. 

 

Give me all your evidence. 

 

Never said it was.

[CayceG]

Timing is the only thing that's "suspicious" about this. And it's only that because our brains cannot fathom that many many shitty things can happen simultaneously in one place on the planet.