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This is why I won't be buying a next-gen console


crispy4000

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Next gen consoles will have:

 

Solid CPUs

16-24Gb of RAM 

GPUs with 8-11 TFLOPs of performance.

SSD OS drive 

 

So despite the nay saying, this next generation of consoles will be on par with or not that far behind most PC gamers rigs of 2019. Throw in optimizations + the public's acceptance of checker boarding for 4K, on these nearly hardware identical closed systems and I think the PS5 and NextBox will be better positioned at the starting line than the PS4 and X1 where at the start of this generation. That said, Ray Tracing will be largely remain a feature enjoyed on PC for this next generation, though a mid gen console refresh might change that. 

 

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2 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If you're on the "tock" you miss out on playing the exclusives entirely for several years.  I am not convinced that the Tick/Tock cadence we saw this gen will continue into the future.  I can see MS moving to a "continuous" upgrade, and Sony doing a Tick/Tock/Tock etc.

 

Big exclusives traditionally don’t start rolling out until year 2.  The wait wouldn’t be that bad.

 

To be honest, if I went in PC first, Microsoft now has me covered in the interm.

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1 hour ago, Xbob42 said:

Was that dumpster fire of performance supposed to convince me that the refreshes were significantly better? Every single console on display dropped to at least 20. In a fucking action game. What the fuck.

 

I don’t mind a blip or two on occasion, as is the case of the X (and Pro somewhat).

 

Its the base consoles that don’t even reach console standards.

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50 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Next gen consoles will have:

 

Solid CPUs

16-24Gb of RAM 

GPUs with 8-11 TFLOPs of performance.

SSD OS drive 

 

So despite the nay saying, this next generation of consoles will be on par with or not that far behind most PC gamers rigs of 2019. Throw in optimizations + the public's acceptance of checker boarding for 4K, on these nearly hardware identical closed systems and I think the PS5 and NextBox will be better positioned at the starting line than the PS4 and X1 where at the start of this generation. That said, Ray Tracing will be largely remain a feature enjoyed on PC for this next generation, though a mid gen console refresh might change that. 

 

 

That’s exactly what I’d be waiting for.  Although the performance could change my mind.

 

I’m also not convinced of a 60fps future for baseline hardware.

 

 

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1 hour ago, TwinIon said:

Historically, the "base" models of consoles have always dramatically outsold the mid-cycle upgrades and therefore remain the default development targets long after they've been "replaced." Things have obviously changed a bit, but I think that will hold true for the PS5/Xbox Whatever era.

 

I don't think that Control's performance issues is particularly indicative of a larger shift of how devs approach the various platforms. It gets hiccups on every platform, and from what I watched fo that video, only the One X seemed even remotely stable. Even then, it was really only the frame rate that seemed to change. Other visual elements remained consistent across platforms. So they clearly weren't targeting the One X and then lowering things for other platforms. 

 

If you buy a PS5 or the equivalent Xbox, you'll almost certainly see a far greater leap in performance than what we saw with the One X or the PS4 Pro. Ray tracing will probably make something of an impact, and the SSDs will greatly decrease load times.

 

In the end, if you only wanted to buy one console per generation, and you could buy either the launch one or the mid-cycle refreshes, I think you'd probably be better off with the launch consoles. They typically have, and likely will continue to have, a longer lifespan at the top of the heap, and will certainly live longer as the default development platform. In addition to graphics, full gen cycles tend to introduce other new bits, like new controllers, and capabilities. There will always be a better thing just over the horizon, but I think launch consoles remain a pretty good bet for how long they'll remain relevant.

 

If they weren’t targeting the X they would have scaled the visuals (/physics) back in other versions beyond resolution.  I think it’s a sign of things to come especially as cross gen is a thing.

 

I’d rather buy a refresh.  You don’t miss half the generation so much as play catch up to it (and save money on games in the process).  Plus none of these problems like Control.

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I doubt we'll see that many exclusives on this next gen. Sony/MS exclusives yes, but I doubt we'll see many PS5 only games for a while, if ever. I think that'll be especially true on the Xbox side. Given't Microsoft's strategy it's hard to imagine them cutting off the One X or even the OG X for a while. They'll do their best to push what the new hardware can do, but I think we'll see support for the various X consoles for a while.

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20 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

I don’t mind a blip or two on occasion, as is the case of the X (and Pro somewhat).

 

Its the base consoles that don’t even reach console standards.

A "blip or two" of a multi-second drop of 30%+ of your framerate during the moments you need framerate most is... I dunno, not acceptable to me.

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1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

 

Big exclusives traditionally don’t start rolling out until year 2.  The wait wouldn’t be that bad.

 

To be honest, if I went in PC first, Microsoft now has me covered in the interm.

Not having important exclusives at launch clearly happened with PS4 at launch -- but I would argue that this is not typical.  The games clearly are not as good as later games from a gen, but typically there are some critical games that you can't get elsewhere.

 

58 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

I doubt we'll see that many exclusives on this next gen. Sony/MS exclusives yes, but I doubt we'll see many PS5 only games for a while, if ever. I think that'll be especially true on the Xbox side. Given't Microsoft's strategy it's hard to imagine them cutting off the One X or even the OG X for a while. They'll do their best to push what the new hardware can do, but I think we'll see support for the various X consoles for a while.

I think the SSD and much more powerful CPU result in many of the holiday 2021 releases not supporting PS4/XB1 -- at least without serious (non-graphical) compromises.

 

57 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

For anyone who believes we will see a 60FPS baseline for console next gen, I have only this to offer:

 

Image result for uncontrollable laughing animated gif

I couldn't agree with you more.  I wonder if many of the CPUs people are buying today will be sufficient to support 60Hz given how much more powerful the console CPUs will be.

 

1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

 

If they weren’t targeting the X they would have scaled the visuals (/physics) back in other versions beyond resolution.  I think it’s a sign of things to come especially as cross gen is a thing.

 

I’d rather buy a refresh.  You don’t miss half the generation so much as play catch up to it (and save money on games in the process).  Plus none of these problems like Control.

If you have a PC, you don't have problems like Control.  If you don't have a PC, you are having a severe drought in games for 4 years.  I really don't understand your argument to skip the first 4 years of exclusives.

 

1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

 

I don’t mind a blip or two on occasion, as is the case of the X (and Pro somewhat).

 

Its the base consoles that don’t even reach console standards.

A blip from 60Hz is OK (assuming VRR).  Anything under 30Hz is unacceptable.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Not having important exclusives at launch clearly happened with PS4 at launch -- but I would argue that this is not typical.  The games clearly are not as good as later games from a gen, but typically there are some critical games that you can't get elsewhere.

 

 

I would argue it is typical.  Launch line-up exclusives haven’t been truly enticing for the past two generations, for any manufacturer.  They tend to be half baked showpieces, or port-ups/remasters of last gen projects.

 

Even year one track records aren’t great.  The stellar Dreamcast and Gamecube lineups are a distant memory.  (And those consoles still underperformed!)

 

If trends change, I’d be somewhat more open to being an early adopter.  It’d take a lot though, with the hardware precedent.

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21 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If you have a PC, you don't have problems like Control.  If you don't have a PC, you are having a severe drought in games for 4 years.  I really don't understand your argument to skip the first 4 years of exclusives.

 

A blip from 60Hz is OK (assuming VRR).  Anything under 30Hz is unacceptable.

 

 

 

Sorry for the double post (on phone).

 

A PC helps, but so might a Switch... or a backlog.  I’ve sat out extended periods of a console generation before.  It’s really not so bad.

 

Who knows how long the Pro or X could maintain relevance too.  That’s a bit of a wildcard.

 

I don’t mind blips under 30fps.  If that’s truly what they are. Blips.

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23 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 couldn't agree with you more.  I wonder if many of the CPUs people are buying today will be sufficient to support 60Hz given how much more powerful the console CPUs will be.

 

TBH while they will be more powerful then Jaguar I still expect their CPUs to be the Ryzen equivalent of a Jaguar.

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1 minute ago, crispy4000 said:

 

I would argue it is typical.  Launch line-up exclusives haven’t been truly enticing for the past two generations, for any manufacturer.  They’re typically either half baked showpieces, or port-ups/remasters of last gen projects.

 

Even year one track records aren’t great.  The stellar Dreamcast and Gamecube lineups are a distant memory.  (And those consoles still underperformed!)

 

If trends change, I’d be somewhat more open to being an early adopter.  It’d take a lot though, with the hardware precedent.

XB1 had Forza 5, which was a worthwhile launch game.  (Even if it was nowhere near as good as Forza 6.)

If you want me to explain what made the X360 launch lineup awesome, I have no answer.

PS3 has Resistance, Ridge Racer 7, Motorstorm, Virtua Fighter 5, etc.

2 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

Sorry for the double post (on phone).

 

A PC helps, but so might a Switch... or a backlog.  I’ve sat out extended periods of a console generation before.  It’s really not so bad.

 

Who knows how long the Pro or X could maintain relevance too.  That’s a bit of a wildcard.

 

I don’t mind blips under 30fps.  If that’s truly what they are. Blips.

It depends on your taste in games.  I understand that my tastes in games may be somewhat different than others, but I'll take the Sony exclusives over the Nintendo exclusives any day of the week.

Given the potential for SSDs (and the impact they have on streaming data) and the more powerful CPUs (which can meaningfully impact gameplay), I think there will be more of a hard cut than in previous gens.

30fps sucks -- if you don't have VRR, dips below 30fps REALLY sucks.  They may be blips, but they really hurt the experience.

5 minutes ago, Zaku3 said:

 

TBH while they will be more powerful then Jaguar I still expect their CPUs to be the Ryzen equivalent of a Jaguar.

They will be Zen2 based -- which at least is a desktop CPU.  Jaguar was a mobile chip.

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21 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Sorry, I missed this.  If they don't have 12-14 TFLOPS, they will be a massive disappointment.  You may be entirely correct though.

Yeah, I’m guessing the mid gen refreshes with clock in closer to 16TFLOPs. But who knows, maybe we get lucky and they mange 12 out of the gate. 

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3 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

XB1 had Forza 5, which was a worthwhile launch game.  (Even if it was nowhere near as good as Forza 6.)

If you want me to explain what made the X360 launch lineup awesome, I have no answer.

PS3 has Resistance, Ridge Racer 7, Motorstorm, Virtua Fighter 5, etc.


A new racing game in a long running biannual franchise isn't really that exciting, IMO.  That goes for both Forza and Ridge Racer.  It's not what takes a launch line-up from bad to good.  Also, Motorstorm and VF5 weren't at the PS3 launch.

I don't think we've had a stellar launch line-up since the Dreamcast, and stellar launch 'window' since the Gamecube.

 

3 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

It depends on your taste in games.  I understand that my tastes in games may be somewhat different than others, but I'll take the Sony exclusives over the Nintendo exclusives any day of the week.

 


How long did it take after the PS4 launch for Uncharted 4 and Bloodborne to come out?  Even someone biased towards Sony should admit the heavy hitters took too long to materialize.

If history repeats itself and we get a line-up like the PS4's first two years, I could easily wait.  I really do hope Sony does better this time.  The industry as a whole too, though I don't expect it.

 

3 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Given the potential for SSDs (and the impact they have on streaming data) and the more powerful CPUs (which can meaningfully impact gameplay), I think there will be more of a hard cut than in previous gens.
 

30fps sucks -- if you don't have VRR, dips below 30fps REALLY sucks.  They may be blips, but they really hurt the experience.


A hard cut would imply that most consumers are chomping at the bit to move on from their last gen machines.  I think you're underestimating the cross-gen limbo most publishers could find themselves in.  Especially with the mid-cycle machines now.

... Even if it "sucks," I feel like I can enjoy 30fps games these days just fine.  You do too if you enjoy Sony exclusives so much.  Occasional drops are to be expected when an AAA dev targets a framerate for a fixed platform.  That's just being realistic.  Optimization gains are an estimate in development.

 

I don't agree that 'blips' are something horrendous.  There's a gulf of a difference in playability between that and the truly ugly results the DF video shows on baseline hardware.  It's exponentially worse.

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10 hours ago, crispy4000 said:


A new racing game in a long running biannual franchise isn't really that exciting, IMO.  That goes for both Forza and Ridge Racer.  It's not what takes a launch line-up from bad to good.  Also, Motorstorm and VF5 weren't at the PS3 launch.

:shrug:

Racing games might be my favourite genre.

I don't particularly enjoy fighting games, so I don't have the same reverence for the Dreamcast launch line-up as others do.  However, I understand why others do.

 

10 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

How long did it take after the PS4 launch for Uncharted 4 and Bloodborne to come out?  Even someone biased towards Sony should admit the heavy hitters took too long to materialize.


If history repeats itself and we get a line-up like the PS4's first two years, I could easily wait.  I really do hope Sony does better this time.  The industry as a whole too, though I don't expect it.

 

I've never seen a write-up on why so many studios at Sony had a huge gap in games releases.  I suspect they had a large number of games cancelled, and pressed the "reset" button -- but have nothing to back that up.  I wouldn't expect that kind of drought again, but who knows.

 

10 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

A hard cut would imply that most consumers are chomping at the bit to move on from their last gen machines.  I think you're underestimating the cross-gen limbo most publishers could find themselves in.  Especially with the mid-cycle machines now.

 

I expect Madden, FIFA and CoD to continue on for multiple years.  However, I've never seen a case where many of the games are cross-gen for more than 6-9 months.

Given that the big advantages of these new machines appears to be the flash-memory and the faster CPU, taking advantage of these benefits may preclude current-gen versions.  (i.e. they can't stream in the assets fast enough, handle the AI, etc.)

10 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

... Even if it "sucks," I feel like I can enjoy 30fps games these days just fine.  You do too if you enjoy Sony exclusives so much.  Occasional drops are to be expected when an AAA dev targets a framerate for a fixed platform.  That's just being realistic.  Optimization gains are an estimate in development.

 

I don't agree that 'blips' are something horrendous.  There's a gulf of a difference in playability between that and the truly ugly results the DF video shows on baseline hardware.  It's exponentially worse.

I can enjoy 30 fps, but I do notice the difference from higher framerates.  It DOES impact the experience, and might be the #1 reason people game on PC.

IMHO, dynamic resolution is a much better choice than framerate drops.

 

If blips are frequent, then it is horrendous.  Because consoles don't really support VRR, dips feel very janky due to bad framerate pacing and can impact control.  I feel they also tend to happen when you least want them to -- when the action gets frantic and you're trying not to die in the game.

 

The blips as described in the DF video on the XB1X version of control don't seem that bad (described as happening in just two sections of the game, a couple of times).

 

The PS4/XB1S versions of Control look completely unplayable.  I never suggested that blips were equivalent to that.  TBH, based on that video I am shocked that MS/Sony allowed Control to be released.

 

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19 hours ago, JPDunks4 said:

I mean what would we expect from 2013 hardware using a cpu that was already semi outdated in 2013?  Isn’t this the norm for most gens?  End of gen cycle games tend to run like shit cause they are pushing the performance boundaries?

Seriously, that shitty ass Jaguar is holding this generation back so much. At least with the 360, it launched with a half decent processor and was able to last a lot longer.  They should have put a better processor in it instead of bundling a Kinect with every unit. 

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14 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Sorry, I missed this.  If they don't have 12-14 TFLOPS, they will be a massive disappointment.  You may be entirely correct though.

12-14 is in the 2080ti range. I don't think it is realistic to expect that in a $500 console. I think it will be more in line with slightly beefed up 5700 XT.

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41 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

Control is a poorly optimized game. Games like this exist in every generation.

Except more and more games run like this lately. Almost like developers have realized people don't simply have low standards, they actively fight against people who point out these kinds of faults and demand better. Elitists, snobs, people-with-functioning-eyeballs, the list of terms used to describe someone who like games to not run like shit is as extensive as it is counterproductive. Games will run well when people demand that they do so.

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1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I expect Madden, FIFA and CoD to continue on for multiple years.  However, I've never seen a case where many of the games are cross-gen for more than 6-9 months.

Given that the big advantages of these new machines appears to be the flash-memory and the faster CPU, taking advantage of these benefits may preclude current-gen versions.  (i.e. they can't stream in the assets fast enough, handle the AI, etc.)

 

 

But again, it's not so much about the benefits to development - it's about the money.  If you were making a next-gen game at this point, would it be wise to target the new platforms as a minimum spec?

Go back to last gen. With how long the 360/PS3 era was, you'd think people would be quick to update.  Instead, the cross-gen stuff generally exceeded 9 months.  Games like Shadow of Mordor, Alien Isolation, Far Cry 4 and Destiny released a year or more after launch.  Those were some of the heaviest hitters.

 

So what of the PS5/XB Next?  Our current generation will have been shorter.  The Pro and X haven't been around for very long.  Outside of an absolutely bonkers first year of next-gen only releases, I think everything is set for the pattern to continue.  Apart from exclusives, I could even see a scenario where cross-gen stays the norm going into 2022.

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6 minutes ago, Rbk_3 said:

12-14 is in the 2080ti range. I don't think it is realistic to expect that in a $500 console. I think it will be more in line with slightly beefed up 5700 XT.

The 2080Ti also has the tesor cores, which add significantly to its cost.

 

The 5700XT (8.2 GFFlops) is roughly equivalent to a GTX-1080 that came out in 2016.  If they are targeting 8-9 GFlop, it will be only slightly more powerful than the 3-year old XB1X (6 GFLOP).  They need it to be competitive with AMD's 2020 mid-level card, not the 2019 mid-level card -- which needs to be much faster.

 

However, if they are doing 8-9 GFlop of rasterization performance, plus an AMD equivalent of NVidia's tensor cores -- that is a completely different story.

 

6 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

But again, it's not so much about the benefits to development - it's about the money.  If you were making a next-gen game at this point, would it truly be wise to target the new platforms as a minimum spec?

Go back to last gen. With how long the 360/PS3 era was, you'd think people would be quick to update.  But the cross-gen stuff generally exceeded 9 months.  Games like Shadow of Mordor, Alien Isolation, Far Cry 4 and Destiny released a year or more later.  Those were some of the heaviest hitters of the year.

 

So what of the PS5/XBO?  Our current generation will have been shorter.  The Pro and X haven't been around for very long.  Outside of an absolutely bonkers first year of next-gen releases, it's hard not to see the pattern continue.  Outside of exclusives, I think we might see cross-gen be the norm well into 2022.

Shadow of Mordor is a good example of why not to buy a cross-generation game on the old platform.  Performance was terrible, and the Nemesis system (which was arguably the best part of the game) was completely gimped.  You're right about 2014 -- there were more cross-gen games than I remembered.

 

2 years after launch there were some games that supported previous gen -- but you would have been missing out on Fallout 4, The Witcher 3, Halo 5, The Order, Just Cause 3, Rainbow 6 Siege, Star Wares: Battlefront. etc.

 

It's hard to make a top-tier game that takes advantage of the new hardware in a meaningful way, while simultaneously supporting the old hardware.  That's why so many of the best games of 2015 didn't.

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38 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

Shadow of Mordor is a good example of why not to buy a cross-generation game on the old platform.  Performance was terrible, and the Nemesis system (which was arguably the best part of the game) was completely gimped.  You're right about 2014 -- there were more cross-gen games than I remembered.

 

 

2 years after launch there were some games that supported previous gen -- but you would have been missing out on Fallout 4, The Witcher 3, Halo 5, The Order, Just Cause 3, Rainbow 6 Siege, Star Wars: Battlefront. etc.

 

It's hard to make a top-tier game that takes advantage of the new hardware in a meaningful way, while simultaneously supporting the old hardware.  That's why so many of the best games of 2015 didn't.

 

I don't anticipate the Shadow of Mordor problem being as prevalent for people with X's and Pro's.  Or those who buy them after further price cuts.  There was no middle ground the last time.  Just the difference between 8+-year-old hardware and brand new.


2 years after launch is about the latest I'd imagine cross-gen staying a thing.  By that point, I agree the industry will have moved on.


As for that line-up, I still don't own a single one of those games.  I didn't have a PS4/XBO (or capable enough PC) 2 years in.  It obviously wasn't enough to convince me.  I'll probably pick up Witcher 3 at some point, since its regarded so well, but I've hardly touched 2 and didn't feel much enjoyment there, tbh.

 

I was most interested in Xenoblade X and Splatoon that year.  If those were releases on PS4/XBO, I could have been swayed earlier.

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