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Update: Iraqi court issues arrest warrant for Insurrectionist-in-Chief over killing of paramilitary leader last January


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13 hours ago, mclumber1 said:

 

Limited drone strikes could result in retaliation by Iran - like they would no shit start sinking oil tankers in the gulf and blocking the straights to not allow passage through. 

Trump doesn't strike me (ha) as a thinking-about-the-consequences-of-his-actions type of guy though

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iranian-commander-downed-drone-a-message-to-us/ar-AAD98Sr?ocid=AMZN

Quote

The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard says the shooting down of a U.S. drone has sent "a clear message" to America.

Gen. Hossein Salami said also says that Iran does "not have any intention for war with any country, but we are ready for war."

His speech was carried live on Iranian state television on Thursday, shortly after U.S. and Iranian officials acknowledged the shooting down of the drone.

The Guard says it shot down the American drone over Iranian airspace, while U.S. officials told The Associated Press the downing happened over international airspace in the Strait of Hormuz.

The different accounts could not be immediately reconciled.

 

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So let's assume that this happens. How does it play out? Obviously the US is not prepared for long-term ground involvement (doesn't even have troops in position), would it just be a bunch of airstrikes? 

 

And how does Iran stack up against Iraq 2003 in terms of ability to do damage to US forces?

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1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

So let's assume that this happens. How does it play out? Obviously the US is not prepared for long-term ground involvement (doesn't even have troops in position), would it just be a bunch of airstrikes? 

 

And how does Iran stack up against Iraq 2003 in terms of ability to do damage to US forces?

 

Depends how far it goes, unlike most countries we bomb, Iran can fight back. Ground war is unlikely unless Iran pushes into Iraq. The US would do airstrikes, then brace for impact waiting for the Iranian counter attack. The US 5th Fleet would have to withdraw from the Gulf since Iranian antiship missiles can be fired from the coast and if the Strait is mined, the Fleet, including a Carrier Strike Group, could be cut off. Once out the Fleet would have to fight it's way back in, clearing mines (a capability the US has neglected thanks to LCS), fighting off fast attack suicide boats, and wishing it has lasers to shoot down antiship missiles. If I'm Iran, my goal is simple, kill a Carrier. Iran can also counter asymmetrically using proxies. 

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23 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

Depends how far it goes, unlike most countries we bomb, Iran can fight back. Ground war is unlikely unless Iran pushes into Iraq. The US would do airstrikes, then brace for impact waiting for the Iranian counter attack. The US 5th Fleet would have to withdraw from the Gulf since Iranian antiship missiles can be fired from the coast and if the Strait is mined, the Fleet, including a Carrier Strike Group, could be cut off. Once out the Fleet would have to fight it's way back in, clearing mines (a capability the US has neglected thanks to LCS), fighting off fast attack suicide boats, and wishing it has lasers to shoot down antiship missiles. If I'm Iran, my goal is simple, kill a Carrier. Iran can also counter asymmetrically using proxies. 

 

And the thing is you don't need to sink a carrier to kill it.  Immobilizing a carrier effectively makes it dead in the water, because if you can't get wind speed across the flight deck, you can't launch airplanes.

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12 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

And the thing is you don't need to sink a carrier to kill it.  Immobilizing a carrier effectively makes it dead in the water, because if you can't get wind speed across the flight deck, you can't launch airplanes.

 

That's because of magnets. If we had steam like our grandfathers, the wind would be great.

 

But in all seriousness, can you imagine the hit to US reputation if a carrier was sunk?

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I can see the immobilization of a carrier literally going nuclear under Trump. It would be a massive embarrassment for him (as this escalation is his policy) and he is as thin skinned as they come, and I think the joint chiefs (and hell, a good portion of the population) would demand retribution of some kind.

 

I don't think it's particularly likely, but I can see the scenario happening under a Trump type.

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