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Iran Conflict Thread - pls no - update: Iran has seized a UK-flagged tanker

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1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

One of the very, very few redeeming features of Trump is his general (and I'm being very liberal with the term here) anti-war stance for being a Republican. So I'm guessing at worst he will approve limited drone strikes, no matter what John Bolton wants.

 

Not a hill I'm going to die on though. Just a gut instinct

 

Limited drone strikes could result in retaliation by Iran - like they would no shit start sinking oil tankers in the gulf and blocking the straights to not allow passage through. 

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2 hours ago, MarSolo said:

 

Let's not pretend Trump won't fold like one of his cheap suits. War is coming unfortunately.

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, mclumber1 said:

 

Limited drone strikes could result in retaliation by Iran - like they would no shit start sinking oil tankers in the gulf and blocking the straights to not allow passage through. 

Trump doesn't strike me (ha) as a thinking-about-the-consequences-of-his-actions type of guy though

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lol, this is the extent of what the Democrats are going to offer up in opposition to this?! Yeah, this is Iraq 2002-03 all over again. My God.

 

 

 

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Quote

“The people demand human rights!” the young boy can be seen shouting through a megaphone.

 

Here’s the problem: Demanding human rights in Saudi Arabia lands you in prison. Even if you’re a kid.

 

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1 minute ago, PaladinSolo said:

There isn't a nuclear deal so there isn't a limit to go beyond. 

 

The shart of the deal

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9 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

There isn't a nuclear deal so there isn't a limit to go beyond. 

Thanks Obama 

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iranian-commander-downed-drone-a-message-to-us/ar-AAD98Sr?ocid=AMZN

Quote

The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard says the shooting down of a U.S. drone has sent "a clear message" to America.

Gen. Hossein Salami said also says that Iran does "not have any intention for war with any country, but we are ready for war."

His speech was carried live on Iranian state television on Thursday, shortly after U.S. and Iranian officials acknowledged the shooting down of the drone.

The Guard says it shot down the American drone over Iranian airspace, while U.S. officials told The Associated Press the downing happened over international airspace in the Strait of Hormuz.

The different accounts could not be immediately reconciled.

 

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So let's assume that this happens. How does it play out? Obviously the US is not prepared for long-term ground involvement (doesn't even have troops in position), would it just be a bunch of airstrikes? 

 

And how does Iran stack up against Iraq 2003 in terms of ability to do damage to US forces?

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15 minutes ago, 2user1cup said:

Iran shoots down US drone???

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

But it was just under HALF of America that made a much, much, bigger mistake back in 2016! 

 

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1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

So let's assume that this happens. How does it play out? Obviously the US is not prepared for long-term ground involvement (doesn't even have troops in position), would it just be a bunch of airstrikes? 

 

And how does Iran stack up against Iraq 2003 in terms of ability to do damage to US forces?

 

Depends how far it goes, unlike most countries we bomb, Iran can fight back. Ground war is unlikely unless Iran pushes into Iraq. The US would do airstrikes, then brace for impact waiting for the Iranian counter attack. The US 5th Fleet would have to withdraw from the Gulf since Iranian antiship missiles can be fired from the coast and if the Strait is mined, the Fleet, including a Carrier Strike Group, could be cut off. Once out the Fleet would have to fight it's way back in, clearing mines (a capability the US has neglected thanks to LCS), fighting off fast attack suicide boats, and wishing it has lasers to shoot down antiship missiles. If I'm Iran, my goal is simple, kill a Carrier. Iran can also counter asymmetrically using proxies. 

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23 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

Depends how far it goes, unlike most countries we bomb, Iran can fight back. Ground war is unlikely unless Iran pushes into Iraq. The US would do airstrikes, then brace for impact waiting for the Iranian counter attack. The US 5th Fleet would have to withdraw from the Gulf since Iranian antiship missiles can be fired from the coast and if the Strait is mined, the Fleet, including a Carrier Strike Group, could be cut off. Once out the Fleet would have to fight it's way back in, clearing mines (a capability the US has neglected thanks to LCS), fighting off fast attack suicide boats, and wishing it has lasers to shoot down antiship missiles. If I'm Iran, my goal is simple, kill a Carrier. Iran can also counter asymmetrically using proxies. 

 

And the thing is you don't need to sink a carrier to kill it.  Immobilizing a carrier effectively makes it dead in the water, because if you can't get wind speed across the flight deck, you can't launch airplanes.

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12 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

And the thing is you don't need to sink a carrier to kill it.  Immobilizing a carrier effectively makes it dead in the water, because if you can't get wind speed across the flight deck, you can't launch airplanes.

 

That's because of magnets. If we had steam like our grandfathers, the wind would be great.

 

But in all seriousness, can you imagine the hit to US reputation if a carrier was sunk?

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I'm just seeing headlines since the volume is down, but Trump was just talking to the press, and he said it would have been a big difference in the drone was manned and "you'll soon find out" if US plans to strike Iran.

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The problem is Trump is irrational and he has people like Bolton whispering in one ear, and Tucker Carlson whispering in the other.  Both are crazy, and giving bad advice to the President. 

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It was foolish but he finds it hard to believe it was intentional because it "could have been someone that is loose and stupid."

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