2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

[SaysWho?]

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-02-2018-hurricane-season-forecast-csu-twc-july

 

Quote

A pattern of cooler-than-average water temperatures has persisted and expanded in the eastern Atlantic and in the central northern Atlantic.

 

The Weather Company compared sea-surface temperature anomalies in June for inactive vs. active hurricane seasons and found that the current pattern more closely represents inactive hurricane seasons.
 

Temperatures between the Lesser Antilles and Africa are supportive for tropical growth nearly year-round, but the warmer the water in that region, the more likely a tropical cyclone is to develop, all other factors (wind shear, atmospheric moisture, forward speed, etc.) held constant.

 

Should this pattern of cooler-than-average ocean temperatures continue into the heart of hurricane season (August, September and October), we can expect less tropical activity east of the Caribbean.

 

 

 

Quote

There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season. Residents near the coast should prepare each year, no matter what seasonal outlooks say.

 

A couple of classic examples that show the need to prepare each year occurred in 1992 and 1983.

 

The 1992 hurricane season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane.

 

In 1983, there were only four named storms, but one was Hurricane Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities along the Texas coast as Andrew did in South Florida.

 

In contrast, the 2010 hurricane season was active. There were 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Basin. Despite the high number of storms that year, no hurricanes and only one tropical storm made landfall in the U.S.

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Boy these guys look like a bunch of dumb dumbs now

[PaladinSolo]

Its pretty nuts how fast this shit winds up, but with record sea temps in the gulf and along the east coast bound to see something with just a slight change.

[SaysWho?]

1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Boy these guys look like a bunch of dumb dumbs now

 

Not yet, honestly. As far as ACE, September may be above average due to Florence alone (which fought wind shear in a very surprising way), but overall, it's trending not too different from 02 or 06 as far as number of storms.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

29 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Not yet, honestly. As far as ACE, September may be above average due to Florence alone (which fought wind shear in a very surprising way), but overall, it's trending not too different from 02 or 06 as far as number of storms.

Easy to say when you're not violently hitting refresh at midnight to get the latest Euro and gfa runs to see how many nonperishable foodstuffs you need to get tomorrow to beat the rush 

[SaysWho?]

16 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Easy to say when you're not violently hitting refresh at midnight to get the latest Euro and gfa runs to see how many nonperishable foodstuffs you need to get tomorrow to beat the rush 

 

it's my job to do that.  

 

But why do that at midnight? For the Euro, you have to wait until 2 - 3 for the models to process the information (both 2am and 2pm).

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Easy to say when you're not violently hitting refresh at midnight to get the latest Euro and gfa runs to see how many nonperishable foodstuffs you need to get tomorrow to beat the rush 

 

Be safe, we’ve been having the Harvey anniversary jitters here in Houston. I get you.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

23 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

 

Be safe, we’ve been having the Harvey anniversary jitters here in Houston. I get you.

Thanks. Have an old friend in Myrtle Beach, and I have family in Columbia SC, all from Ohio, and I don't trust my family members to look far enough ahead to start preparing

[SaysWho?]

Euro and UKMet have been putting this close to the South Carolina/Georgia area. Gonna be easier to determine Monday due to the variables at play.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Read this on Reddit, and it summarized why my first post in here was so glib

 

Quote

 • Guam is in the path of typhoon Mangkhut, expected to strengthen to Cat 3-5 with moderate potential for landfall currently forecasted.

 • The Eastern US coastline is in the path of hurricane Florence, expected to strengthen to Cat 2-4 with high potential for landfall.

 • Hawaii is in the path of hurricane Olivia, expected to weaken to a tropical storm shortly before it becomes a landfall threat.

 • US Virgin Islands are in the path of Tropical storm Nine, expected to strengthen into Hurricane Isaac prior to becoming a landfall threat.

Some of these paths can and will dramatically change but I found it quite shocking, I forget to check on updates for a week, come back and the current cones point to 4 potential US landfalls from 4 different hurricanes/typhoons. A good reminder that the season starting slow means nothing and to always be prepared if you live in places with high hurricane threat.

 

[SaysWho?]

26 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Read this on Reddit, and it summarized why my first post in here was so glib

 

 

 

The typhoon isn't relevant to the Atlantic hurricane season, nor is Hawaii. The Pacific season has been very active and was forecasted to be above average.

 

Furthermore, right in the OP:

 

Quote

There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season. Residents near the coast should prepare each year, no matter what seasonal outlooks say.

 

A couple of classic examples that show the need to prepare each year occurred in 1992 and 1983.

 

The 1992 hurricane season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane.

 

In 1983, there were only four named storms, but one was Hurricane Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities along the Texas coast as Andrew did in South Florida.

 

In contrast, the 2010 hurricane season was active. There were 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Basin. Despite the high number of storms that year, no hurricanes and only one tropical storm made landfall in the U.S.

 

1992 was an inactive season that featured a Cat 5 US landfall, one of the most infamous ones. The Atlantic season getting up to 'I' around this time of the year isn't abnormal for a below-average to average season (see: 2002, 2006, 2013).

 

Last year at this time, Irma was approaching my state, Harvey had devastated parts of Texas, Jose was a major hurricane out in the Atlantic, and we were around a week away from Maria forming. There was virtually no wind shear affecting any of them.

 

We're at the most active part of the hurricane season, and below-average to average seasons still become more active in September because that's when activity peaks.

[Jwheel86]

This storm definitely has my parents spooked, to the point we're preparing to evacuate. Normally evacuating never enters my Dad's mind. 

[SaysWho?]

Just now, Jwheel86 said:

This storm definitely has my parents spooked, to the point we're preparing to evacuate. Normally evacuating never enters my Dad's mind. 

 

Where do they live?

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

2 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

The typhoon isn't relevant to the Atlantic hurricane season, nor is Hawaii. The Pacific season has been very active and was forecasted to be above average.

 

Furthermore, right in the OP:

 

 

1992 was an inactive season that featured a Cat 5 US landfall, one of the most infamous ones. The Atlantic season getting up to 'I' around this time of the year isn't abnormal for a below-average to average season (see: 2002, 2006, 2013).

 

Last year at this time, Irma was approaching my state, Harvey had devastated parts of Texas, Jose was a major hurricane out in the Atlantic, and we were around a week away from Maria forming. There was virtually no wind shear affecting any of them.

 

We're at the most active part of the hurricane season, and below-average to average seasons still become more active in September because that's when activity peaks.

I know, just posted that as a reference that this many US territories and States (in both oceans) are at very really risk within the next week or so. This also happened to be the only non-Maria thread about hurricanes on the board 

[SaysWho?]

Hurricane hunters enter Florence today. Forecasts usually improve at that point, which should lead to a better forecast.

[Jwheel86]

5 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Where do they live?

See the UK and GFS models? Direct hit on Eastern NC, like up my driveway. 

[SaysWho?]

@b_m_b_m_b_m Good info here for times:

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

26 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

@b_m_b_m_b_m Good info here for times:

 

 

Having a hard time understanding how to read that guy. Care to elaborate?

 

Also, south Carolina has declared a state of emergency.

[SaysWho?]

28 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Having a hard time understanding how to read that guy. Care to elaborate?

 

Also, south Carolina has declared a state of emergency.

 

Aw man, I didn't even notice it had all that Z shit there.  

 

Just know GFS is 12a/6a/12p/6p ET, and the Euro will come in starting around 2a/2p ET.

[SaysWho?]

Noticeable shift north on the latest Euro to North Carolina.

 

If I were anywhere from Jacksonville through Virginia, I'd get the basics down now, and I'd start putting up shutters if I were in the Carolinas and maybe even the Georgia coast.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

10 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Noticeable shift north on the latest Euro to North Carolina.

 

If I were anywhere from Jacksonville through Virginia, I'd get the basics down now, and I'd start putting up shutters if I were in the Carolinas and maybe even the Georgia coast.

Prepare your butthole, @Jwheel86

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Time to move my truck (parked near the James River). 14-15" of rain ain't nothing to fuck with

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Also

https://mobile.twitter.com/splillo/status/1038492065242464260

[SaysWho?]

I really hope it doesn't just hang around as the Euro is suggesting. We don't need a situation like Harvey.

[SaysWho?]

 

Pretty significant shift north for the 5pm. Winds up to 70 and they'll go up from here most likely.

 

Anyone with friends and family in flood-prone zones should definitely heed evacuation orders that'll be issued by midweek. 

[PaladinSolo]

Ughhh, the remains of Gordon are suppose to come through my area tomorrow into monday and they're already issuing flood watches.

[Jwheel86]

Looks like we've decided to go to Raleigh if we go. As have a few neighbors so we're going to convoy out together. 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

The 06z gfs.....this kills the OBX. Not as bad as the 00z which has it sitting at cat 5 over the OBX for a sustained period of time.

[SaysWho?]

Not discounting the GFS entirely since it's a major model, but long-range, it's usually not as good as the Euro.

 

That said, I'm impressed that, while the Euro was the first to show a westerly shift, it and the UKMet have shifted north to where the GFS was.

 

Not liking that they just sit over land for a while. We already saw that with Harvey, but I know some meteorologists/climatologists are concerned with the lack of a steering flow -- a trough and a high pressure system both dying, where they'd normally be great at getting storms out of the area.

[SaysWho?]

@b_m_b_m_b_m With both Carolinas in the cone, make sure your family knows that they need to execute their hurricane plan starting today as they only have until Wednesday afternoon-ish to get everything prepared.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

I'm telling them they have until Wednesday, and to check in on my brother who has issues of his own to make sure he's going to be safe.

 

At this point the best case scenario looks to be the GFS, but still terrifying. Basically it looks like a cat 5 sitting over the obx but doesn't hit the mainland. Still so much uncertainty.

[CitizenVectron]

How likely is this to be very bad?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

How likely is this to be very bad?

That would entirely depend on the warmth of the Atlantic as it approaches the coast.  It appears that it will make landfall as a Cat 3 (bad) or Cat 4 (very, very bad).

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

5 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

That would entirely depend on the warmth of the Atlantic as it approaches the coast.  It appears that it will make landfall as a Cat 3 (bad) or Cat 4 (very, very bad).

The biggest issue, imo, is if it gets stuck on land and just dumps water down for days. I've seen some rainfall projections over 18" from Thursday to Saturday in central Virginia...put that a few miles west over the  shenandoah valley and it's a complete disaster. It would be bad here, but nothing like the valley or tidewater region. And don't forget the storm surge in Hampton Roads area...nothing about this storm is good.

[SaysWho?]

11 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

That would entirely depend on the warmth of the Atlantic as it approaches the coast.  It appears that it will make landfall as a Cat 3 (bad) or Cat 4 (very, very bad).

 

You're still in Virginia, right? How are you holding up there? What's the feeling like?