Movies BO Report: Alita Battle Angel outperforms expectations on worst Presidents' Day weekend since 2004

[SaysWho?]

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4487&p=.htm

 

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The three-day President's Day weekend last year saw the top twelve gross over $270 million, the bulk of which was due to the over $202 million three-day opening for Black Panther, accounting for nearly 74% of the combined top twelve gross. This year didn't have such a monster release, and while expectations were muted, the top twelve's combined $109.1 million makes for the worst three-day President's Day weekend since 2004.

 

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Fox's Alita: Battle Angel topped the weekend box office with ease, outperforming expectations and delivering an estimated $27.8 million over the three-day weekend with expectations to hit over $33 million for the four-day weekend. The result would push the film's five-day cume over $41 million, well ahead of the $30 million expectations for the film heading into the weekend. Of course, despite the film's over-performance, it still carries a lofty $170 million price tag with sources suggesting it needs to gross $500-550 million globally to break even, which, at this point, looks nearly impossible.

 

This is added to LEGO Movie 2's underperformance last weekend ($20 million below estimates).

[Guest]

Looking forward to Dragon 3 giving a jolt as we head into a March that could be very strong with Captain Marvel, Us, and Dumbo.

[johnny]

It’s a shame the budget for Alita was so high. 

[EternallDarkness]

Enjoyed Alita quite a bit, was disappointed in Lego 2. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, johnny said:

It’s a shame the budget for Alita was so high. 

It really wasn’t. In typical Hollywood math, they roll up every single cost over the course of development into the alleged budget for the film, even when much of that has nothing to do with what it actually cost Fox to get the movie on screen. It’s all a bunch of fluff.

[johnny]

5 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

It really wasn’t. In typical Hollywood math, they roll up every single cost over the course of development into the alleged budget for the film, even when much of that has nothing to do with what it actually cost Fox to get the movie on screen. It’s all a bunch of fluff.

Regardless, they need a ton of money to break even

[TheLeon]

I hope it makes enough that they make a sequel. It was a fun movie, and I would like to see another one.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, johnny said:

Regardless, they need a ton of money to break even

Based on its current trajectory, it is going to be nearing or at the break even point before it hits video. I expected far worse TBH.

[johnny]

7 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Based on its current trajectory, it is going to be nearing or at the break even point before it hits video. I expected far worse TBH.

True. When I first saw trailers I thought it was going to bomb. 

[skillzdadirecta]

It's gonna make a ton of money in China and Asia.

[number305]

19 hours ago, sblfilms said:

Looking forward to Dragon 3 giving a jolt as we head into a March that could be very strong with Captain Marvel, Us, and Dumbo.

Do you expect Dragon 3 to perform better than Lego 2?

 

I don't follow this stuff all that much, but from the outside I would have expected Lego to be a bigger impact.

[SaysWho?]

Just now, number305 said:

Do you expect Dragon 3 to perform better than Lego 2?

 

I don't follow this stuff all that much, but from the outside I would have expected Lego to be a bigger impact.

 

Lego 2 vastly underperformed. I've seen some movies make below estimates, but Lego 2 was $20 million below estimates. It may be franchise fatigue? I dunno.

[Greatoneshere]

I really hope Alita: Battle Angel does well enough for a sequel. I have yet to see it yet, but audiences on both RottenTomatoes and IMDb seem to LOVE it while critics were pretty hard on it. Perhaps word of mouth will be strong.

[Rodimus]

I liked the the first Lego Movie and the lefo natman movie. I missed out on Lego Ninjago but I'm ok with that. I will catch Lego Movie 2 someday. Alita Battle Angel looks good. I might go see that in the next week of so. I never say any how to train your dragon movies. I'm opposed to these Disney "live action" remakes. It seems they are just not animated on computer this time around. I'm all in for Captian Marvel. Perhpas that is why I haven't gone to see much. Once I se Captian Marvel it wil be the continued waiting game for Avengers End Game. I really hope Captian Marvel is great. I know it is Marvels first female lead super hereo movie. If it flops they will blame it on acount of the lead being female. I know that is not fair but it is what will happen. I know they want it to be the female Black Panther.

[LazyPiranha]

Surprised to see people disappointed by Lego 2, I really enjoyed it.  Just more fun, clever popcorn fluff.

[Keyser_Soze]

51 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

I really hope Alita: Battle Angel does well enough for a sequel. I have yet to see it yet, but audiences on both RottenTomatoes and IMDb seem to LOVE it while critics were pretty hard on it. Perhaps word of mouth will be strong.

 

Since it's no longer 1993 it would be cool to see them do a real anime version of the manga.

[Greatoneshere]

6 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

Since it's no longer 1993 it would be cool to see them do a real anime version of the manga.

 

That would be pretty great, but I'm not holding my breath.  

[TwinIon]

I haven't yet written down all my thoughts on Alita, but I do hope that it does well enough to get a sequel.

 

It's a fun mess of a film. It's charging through plot like it's on borrowed time, but it still doesn't get through enough. It really wants to spend time fleshing out all the characters, but there's always more world building to do. It wants to earn every moment, but it takes every crazy shortcut it can find to do so. It's a gorgeous mess of CG that actually does a pretty good job of escaping the uncanny valley. The action is insane, but always clear and well shot. I don't think Alita is a good movie, but it's not a bad one either. Even at its worst, it's still fun and Rosa Salazar does a good a job bringing a manga character to life as I can imagine. 

[Hurdyb1]

Going to see Alita tomorrow.

[Man_of_X]

Saw Alita yesterday. I enjoyed it quite a bit. 

[Greatoneshere]

22 hours ago, TwinIon said:

I haven't yet written down all my thoughts on Alita, but I do hope that it does well enough to get a sequel.

 

It's a fun mess of a film. It's charging through plot like it's on borrowed time, but it still doesn't get through enough. It really wants to spend time fleshing out all the characters, but there's always more world building to do. It wants to earn every moment, but it takes every crazy shortcut it can find to do so. It's a gorgeous mess of CG that actually does a pretty good job of escaping the uncanny valley. The action is insane, but always clear and well shot. I don't think Alita is a good movie, but it's not a bad one either. Even at its worst, it's still fun and Rosa Salazar does a good a job bringing a manga character to life as I can imagine. 

 

I'll see it soon myself and report back, but this is no surprise that the story rushes through things. It's a tough spot to be in and most movies never pick the best way to do it but Alita: Battle Angel is based on a 9 volume manga series (which has a 19 volume manga sequel series, which now has its own sequel manga series that is currently ongoing). So Battle Angel Alita (or Gunnm, as its known in Japan) has become this big, epic story that has gone way past its initial 9 volume story (which was epic in itself). 

 

For the purposes of this film, the first 9 volume manga series is all that matters and it tells a full and complete story which was intended to end the entire story (the 19 volume sequel series came out 5 years after the first series ended, much later). Even with 9 volumes though, that's a lot of material to cover and it would take ideally 3 movies or more to cover; 1 film for every 3 volumes and I can say even then you are condensing things some (though action scenes take up a lot of manga pages but go quick in live-action or animated format which helps save time). I'll be curious to see just how much they condense and speed through things, as I just re-read the 9 volumes in preparation for the film. I know there's no way they can keep the hardcore violence that's in the manga (which is part of its point, but oh well) but I'd still like the rest translated over if possible. 

 

 

[Nokt]

Honestly after seeing the battle scene they released awhile ago I have had absolutely no desire to go see Alita.

[Keyser_Soze]

31 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

I'll see it soon myself and report back, but this is no surprise that the story rushes through things. It's a tough spot to be in and most movies never pick the best way to do it but Alita: Battle Angel is based on a 9 volume manga series (which has a 19 volume manga sequel series, which now has its own sequel manga series that is currently ongoing). So Battle Angel Alita (or Gunnm, as its known in Japan) has become this big, epic story that has gone way past its initial 9 volume story (which was epic in itself). 

 

For the purposes of this film, the first 9 volume manga series is all that matters and it tells a full and complete story which was intended to end the entire story (the 19 volume sequel series came out 5 years after the first series ended, much later). Even with 9 volumes though, that's a lot of material to cover and it would take ideally 3 movies or more to cover; 1 film for every 3 volumes and I can say even then you are condensing things some (though action scenes take up a lot of manga pages but go quick in live-action or animated format which helps save time). I'll be curious to see just how much they condense and speed through things, as I just re-read the 9 volumes in preparation for the film. I know there's no way they can keep the hardcore violence that's in the manga (which is part of its point, but oh well) but I'd still like the rest translated over if possible. 

 

 

 

If a lot of anime shows adapted from manga means anything, a volume is like 25 minutes worth of live material. So at the very least this movie could have been nearly 4 hours, but trim the fat a bit and you've got a 2 hours movie which is quite generous for a live action anime adaptation.

[Greatoneshere]

10 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

 

If a lot of anime shows adapted from manga means anything, a volume is like 25 minutes worth of live material. So at the very least this movie could have been nearly 4 hours, but trim the fat a bit and you've got a 2 hours movie which is quite generous for a live action anime adaptation.

 

I'd agree with that, but there is a lot of world building and mythology that can go quick in a manga that takes time to properly explain and establish in animation and live action by comparison. Things like Pander Kunst, etc. would take time to explain in Alita, for instance. 

 

The problem becomes that you have to choose where to cut things off, but you have to cede the larger story of the 9 volumes in the first film, even though the first 3 volumes of the manga don't even really get the larger story going much. So either you make a bunch of one-off smaller stories in a larger film or you create some hybrid that hopefully hits the sweet spot between dropping crumbs of the larger story while faithfully adapting the episodic (but large) stories of earlier volumes. I'll be curious how and in what ways Alita: Battle Angel cuts things off. 

[TwinIon]

35 minutes ago, Greatoneshere said:

I'll see it soon myself and report back, but this is no surprise that the story rushes through things. It's a tough spot to be in and most movies never pick the best way to do it but Alita: Battle Angel is based on a 9 volume manga series (which has a 19 volume manga sequel series, which now has its own sequel manga series that is currently ongoing). So Battle Angel Alita (or Gunnm, as its known in Japan) has become this big, epic story that has gone way past its initial 9 volume story (which was epic in itself). 

 

For the purposes of this film, the first 9 volume manga series is all that matters and it tells a full and complete story which was intended to end the entire story (the 19 volume sequel series came out 5 years after the first series ended, much later). Even with 9 volumes though, that's a lot of material to cover and it would take ideally 3 movies or more to cover; 1 film for every 3 volumes and I can say even then you are condensing things some (though action scenes take up a lot of manga pages but go quick in live-action or animated format which helps save time). I'll be curious to see just how much they condense and speed through things, as I just re-read the 9 volumes in preparation for the film. I know there's no way they can keep the hardcore violence that's in the manga (which is part of its point, but oh well) but I'd still like the rest translated over if possible. 

I'll be interested in your take on where they decided to end it, as it didn't feel to me like a natural stopping point to me.

 

I was surprised with how much of the violence they got away with. It can be pretty gruesome, in a strictly PG-13 no blood and guts kinda way.

[ALIEN-gunner]

I want to see this but it's hard to get past her bug eyes.

[Hurdyb1]

Loved it. I had faith in both Robert Rodriguez and Cameron to deliver. 

[johnny]

9 hours ago, TwinIon said:

I'll be interested in your take on where they decided to end it, as it didn't feel to me like a natural stopping point to me.

 

I was surprised with how much of the violence they got away with. It can be pretty gruesome, in a strictly PG-13 no blood and guts kinda way.

Yeah the ending was half “okay let’s wrap these two-three storylines up kinda” and half “we need to set up a sequel”. Which, really? James Cameron wrote this and AVATAR did not set up a sequel unless you count the guy transferring into his na’vi body a set up. And they’re making like 20 of those. If anything just leave a small seed towards the end or do an after credits scene to tease people. 

 

Besides how they handle the end i really I really enjoyed it. 

[Hurdyb1]

14 hours ago, Greatoneshere said:

 

I'll see it soon myself and report back, but this is no surprise that the story rushes through things. It's a tough spot to be in and most movies never pick the best way to do it but Alita: Battle Angel is based on a 9 volume manga series (which has a 19 volume manga sequel series, which now has its own sequel manga series that is currently ongoing). So Battle Angel Alita (or Gunnm, as its known in Japan) has become this big, epic story that has gone way past its initial 9 volume story (which was epic in itself). 

 

For the purposes of this film, the first 9 volume manga series is all that matters and it tells a full and complete story which was intended to end the entire story (the 19 volume sequel series came out 5 years after the first series ended, much later). Even with 9 volumes though, that's a lot of material to cover and it would take ideally 3 movies or more to cover; 1 film for every 3 volumes and I can say even then you are condensing things some (though action scenes take up a lot of manga pages but go quick in live-action or animated format which helps save time). I'll be curious to see just how much they condense and speed through things, as I just re-read the 9 volumes in preparation for the film. I know there's no way they can keep the hardcore violence that's in the manga (which is part of its point, but oh well) but I'd still like the rest translated over if possible. 

 

 

That makes a lot of sense after seeing the film.

[GeneticBlueprint]

Surprised to see all the positive word of mouth. Because it looks like hot garbage. Maybe I'll check it out.

[Keyser_Soze]

6 hours ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

Surprised to see all the positive word of mouth. Because it looks like hot garbage. Maybe I'll check it out.

 

It looks ok but there have been zero successful live action anime adaptations, so I guess it's been lifted because things like Aeon Flux, Kite and Ghost in the Shell exist.

[TwinIon]

14 hours ago, johnny said:

Yeah the ending was half “okay let’s wrap these two-three storylines up kinda” and half “we need to set up a sequel”. Which, really? James Cameron wrote this and AVATAR did not set up a sequel unless you count the guy transferring into his na’vi body a set up. And they’re making like 20 of those. If anything just leave a small seed towards the end or do an after credits scene to tease people. 

 

Besides how they handle the end i really I really enjoyed it. 

Yeah, it's hard to talk too much about the ending without getting into spoilers. I honestly don't think that they chose that point to end because they felt a need to setup a sequel. I don't know the manga, but my intuition is that they didn't want to change the existing story in order to have a nice neat ending for the film. A lot of those stories are cliffhangers of one sort or another at the end of each volume, though someone who's read it can tell me if that's the case here.

 

Still, I think if you're willing to make significant changes, you easily could have ended the film in a way that left room for sequels, but was still fulfilling. Specifically:

Spoiler

I think they could easily have gotten away without Alita being aware of Nova at all, at least for the first film. Vector and Grewishka would have been the big bads, and the first movie wraps up with Alita beating them, but still hinting at a larger force behind Vector. You could have just left the flashback about Nova out, and the next film could be her digging into the mystery of Vector's superiors and her own past, revealing that Nova was pulling the strings all along and was her original mission. Again, I'm guessing that's a deviation from the Manga they weren't willing to make, but I think it could have worked in their favor.

 

[Greatoneshere]

14 hours ago, johnny said:

Yeah the ending was half “okay let’s wrap these two-three storylines up kinda” and half “we need to set up a sequel”. Which, really? James Cameron wrote this and AVATAR did not set up a sequel unless you count the guy transferring into his na’vi body a set up. And they’re making like 20 of those. If anything just leave a small seed towards the end or do an after credits scene to tease people. 

 

Besides how they handle the end i really I really enjoyed it. 

 

Yeah, I think they were worried the story didn't feel big enough on its own (like I said, the first few volumes don't have the overarching story kick in). I'd have been happy to leave it as a "smaller" story that becomes bigger in sequels but they probably felt they needed to indicate that there are bigger things afoot the whole time, that the stakes aren't small (when you first read the manga, the stakes are high but very personal only - there isn't really a bigger story until volume 3). 

[Greatoneshere]

3 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

Yeah, it's hard to talk too much about the ending without getting into spoilers. I honestly don't think that they chose that point to end because they felt a need to setup a sequel. I don't know the manga, but my intuition is that they didn't want to change the existing story in order to have a nice neat ending for the film. A lot of those stories are cliffhangers of one sort or another at the end of each volume, though someone who's read it can tell me if that's the case here.

 

Still, I think if you're willing to make significant changes, you easily could have ended the film in a way that left room for sequels, but was still fulfilling. Specifically:

  Reveal hidden contents

I think they could easily have gotten away without Alita being aware of Nova at all, at least for the first film. Vector and Grewishka would have been the big bads, and the first movie wraps up with Alita beating them, but still hinting at a larger force behind Vector. You could have just left the flashback about Nova out, and the next film could be her digging into the mystery of Vector's superiors and her own past, revealing that Nova was pulling the strings all along and was her original mission. Again, I'm guessing that's a deviation from the Manga they weren't willing to make, but I think it could have worked in their favor.

 

 

I didn't read the spoilers but you would be correct about how manga volumes work ending on cliffhangers - and I would argue better to just adapt it and leave things off as the manga does (if that is indeed what the film does) because hey - that's how the story worked anyway. I'm all for nips and tucks and changes though. I have heard they do botch the ending a bit. 

[GeneticBlueprint]

I took an extended lunch and went to see it. It wasn't hot garbage like the trailer makes it seem. But it was basically the Tatooine sequence of The Phantom Menace stretched out for two hours.