Jump to content
SaysWho?

~*Official 2020 Presidential Election Thread of miscellaneous stuff that isn't worth its own thread and now sayswho finishes his edits to the OP until November*~

Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I've heard the Emerson poll methodology was particularly bad

 

Explain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

3 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

This is overall bleak. Polls this far aout aren't the best, but if even Biden is within the MoE let's just nominate him and lose everything so progressive policies and candidates aren't blamed for hilldawging 2020. (It is important to note that all but 2 state/candidate matchups are within the margin of error)

 

 

Though I do submit that if ideology was a driving favor in the divide, Warren would be running better than Sanders.

It's just one poll a year away, so this poll doesn't mean much to me.

 

If you take the poll at face value, it appears Warren is a weaker candidate than Sanders or Biden. This is notable since Sanders had a heart attack and Biden babbles non nonsensical stuff regularly. It seems like Sanders would do better with the public and some find Warren unlikable (according to this poll). The poll asked voters that support Biden over Warren why, and many of them said it's because she is too far left and they are against single payer.

 

 

1 hour ago, CayceG said:

Regarding that NYT poll:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the lesson here is NOT that polls a year beforehand are trash. 

The lessons are:

1. Dems need to start appealing to a base through more leftist politics and policies

2. The NYT's narratives are junk. 

A weighing problem sounds like Romney 2012. I remember the right created their own polling website that adjusted the weights to what they thought they should be. I wouldn't rely on any single poll and certainly not a single tweet critiquing it. I would just wait for more polls and average them. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Warren is a weaker candidate then them both

 

Because of one poll? Bah.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Because of one poll? Bah.

Because of her tendency to do dumb things after being goaded into it. Her DNA test was a complete snafu, and her response to the "how to pay for M4A" was bad.

 

She's trying to be quite progressive and appeal to centrists at the same time in a way that I don't think will work. Everyone knows what Biden and Bernie are about, because they've lived it their whole lives. For Warren this is not the case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Beto is such a moron

This is about as frustrating as it gets in Texas. If Beto would have just launched immediately into a run against Cornyn after his slim loss, he would have a really good chance. Now he is on record for confiscating firearms and a complete flop of a campaign. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

This is about as frustrating as it gets in Texas. If Beto would have just launched immediately into a run against Cornyn after his slim loss, he would have a really good chance. Now he is on record for confiscating firearms and a complete flop of a campaign. 

 

Similar to Beto, Hegar did very well in a very red district.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The dumbest think about Beto here is he gave up trying to get literally the second best job on the planet, to try and get the most demanding, stressful, and thankless white collar job on the planet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the 2020 primaries, I've been highest on Warren, Yang and Bernie. Having watched them all year, I'd love to have any of them president, but I've been thinking for a while now that Bernie's the best one in terms of campaigning and responding to adversity. Hillary nearly collapsed and nobody on her team even knew she had pneumonia besides Huma Abedin. Sanders has a g'damn heart attack and turns it into a laugh line in the next debate.

 

Questions about his health will easily be there if he were to win the nomination, but he never has an issue, far as I can tell, responding to any criticism, and never shrinks from explaining what his position is. Couple that with the huge rallies, and I've no problem thinking, "But they're gonna get him for being a socialist!" in 2016 was short-sighted.

 

The field will be much smaller by the time it gets to Florida, but at this point in the race, Sanders is ever-so-slightly the one I'd vote for. And that comes as two votes because my newly-registered mother, who became a citizen last year, trusts me and my vote preference. :p 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

And that comes as two votes because my newly-registered mother, who became a citizen last year, trusts me and my vote preference.

 

ANCHOR BABIES VOTERS! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

For the 2020 primaries, I've been highest on Warren, Yang and Bernie.

 

I am curious as to why you would approve of both a socialist and someone like Yang who would slash social services.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I am curious as to why you would approve of both a socialist and someone like Yang who would slash social services.

 

UBI, Medicare-For-All, ambitious environmental plans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

UBI, Medicare-For-All, ambitious environmental plans

 

My understanding of his UBI is that it's a massive net-reduction. From what I've read on his UBI plan (and I could be mistaken), it's an offer of $1,000/mo in exchange for eliminating all other social services you'd receive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

My understanding of his UBI is that it's a massive net-reduction. From what I've read on his UBI plan (and I could be mistaken), it's an offer of $1,000/mo in exchange for eliminating all other social services you'd receive.

 

What social services? I think people really over estimate how much welfare there are in the US. Most of it is Medicaid, which if you have Medicare for All with the additional Medicaid waiver services, you don't need. Housing is really the only one I can see being more valuable than UBI. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I mean the idea that nationally votes could move so far in 1 direction but only in swing states it doesn't and he still wins is ludicrous, i know the NYTs Upshot polling is heavily weighted and in a couple states they had to reduce the number of respondents because of poor response percentages, but it kinda looks like an outlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, so: I have no idea what the upper midwest is going to do next year considering the economy will be different, we'll have a Dem nominee chosen, etc. But the article takes polls showing Biden/Warren/Sanders up a few points this early and how that means Wisconsin will be brutal. Wisconsin could be reealllly close again (people forget it was the closest state in 2004), but I have an issue with that logic being the methodology. 

 

SurveyUSA    1/20 - 1/21    532 RV    --    46    44    McCain +2
SurveyUSA    12/13 - 12/15    542 RV    --    44    46    Obama +2

 

These were 2008 and 2007 polls, respectively, showing a supposed brutally close election in Wisconsin despite Obama sweeping almost all counties.

 

Heck, here's Romney and Obama in August of the same year when Obama won by nearly 7 points.

 

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac    8/15 - 8/21    1190 LV    3.0    49    47    Obama +2
PPP (D)    8/16 - 8/19    1308 LV    2.7    47    48    Romney +1
Marquette University    8/16 - 8/19    576 LV    4.2    49    46    Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports    8/15 - 8/15    500 LV    4.5    47    48    Romney +1

 

We'll have a better idea next year; I just don't see the purpose this early on fretting about swing state polls.

 

That said, it's still a great interview with the state chair in Wisconsin about Wisconsin's politics, the manufacturing recession it's experiencing, what the party is doing, what Hillary did wrong, etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those states might not even determine the winner with that kind of popular vote lead if it were to happen, maybe too much focus on the white working class voter and where they're headed while every other demographic is going the other way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

Those states might not even determine the winner with that kind of popular vote lead if it were to happen, maybe too much focus on the white working class voter and where they're headed while every other demographic is going the other way.

 

It's the reverse issue we had in 2016. We talked so much about the increase in the Hispanic population after 2012 that we forgot about other groups that could swing the election in 2016.

 

I think it's a reminder to focus on all ages, religions, socio-economic backgrounds, etc. and then just see where the chips land.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, CayceG said:

TANF, CHIP, and SNAP mainly. 

 

TANF is incredibly difficult to get, you wouldn't need CHIP with Medicare for All, SNAP is worth keeping. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biden, Sanders gain ground in early voting states

 

Quote

The Morning Consult poll found Biden reached 33 percent support and Sanders earned the backing of 22 percent in the early primary states: Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Nevada. Both experienced 4 percentage point gains since last week’s poll.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...