Baseball The Mariners

[Amazatron]

38 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

I'm not dying on any hill. I think it was the right move. Others may disagree. You could make a strong case with analytics that he should have stayed in, actually. Your (and others) criticism of the move is about attacking analytics and that's just irrational.

 

LOL irrational. I've used data/analytics longer than you, but whatever helps you sleep at night.

 

Analytics works with large sample sizes, so maybe the percentage play out of thousands of games says it favors taking the pitcher out. But that completely ignores the in-game factors going on. That's where being stubbornly tied to analytics breaks down.

[Joe]

5 minutes ago, Amazatron said:

 

LOL irrational. I've used data/analytics longer than you, but whatever helps you sleep at night.

 

Analytics works with large sample sizes, so maybe the percentage play out of thousands of games says it favors taking the pitcher out. But that completely ignores the in-game factors going on.

 

I see you've trained some models before, which is cool! However:

 

"Analytics say put in Jansen, god damn it Roberts, follow the fucking model!"

 

That is a dumb quote.

[Amazatron]

Just now, Joe said:

 

I see you've trained some models before, which is cool! However:

 

"Analytics say put in Jansen, god damn it Roberts, follow the fucking model!"

 

That is a dumb quote.

 

Can't take a joke?

 

Also, so you're saying analytics would have said keep in Urias for a second inning? I don't think so.

[Joe]

Just now, Amazatron said:

 

Can't take a joke?

 

Also, so you're saying analytics would have said keep in Urias for a second inning? I don't think so.

 

I'm saying "analytics" isn't some unchanging, homogenous thing across organizations. I think you understand this? Like it could very well be that the data in the Tampa Bay organization would have been against what Cash did, but he combined his understanding of the TTO penalty and his gut to make that call. You guys are oversimplifying this.

[Amazatron]

I'm not criticizing analytics, there's certainly value on it. I'm criticizing the application of it, because taking Snell out there for Anderson is completely ridiculous given what was going on in the game. Nobody's gut said take out Snell.

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, Amazatron said:

I'm not criticizing analytics, there's certainly value on it. I'm criticizing the application of it, because taking Snell out there for Anderson is completely ridiculous given what was going on in the game. Nobody's gut said take out Snell.

 

That's fine, but it seemed like you were criticizing it earlier and others definitely are.

[Joe]

A Defense of Kevin Cash Pulling Blake Snell in the World Series

BLOGS.FANGRAPHS.COM

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Was Blake Snell wearing down in the sixth?

 

Good article.

[Amazatron]

9 minutes ago, Joe said:

A Defense of Kevin Cash Pulling Blake Snell in the World Series

BLOGS.FANGRAPHS.COM

---

Was Blake Snell wearing down in the sixth?

 

Good article.

 

Snell threw 4 total pitches in the inning. The curveball and fastball were 2 mph slower, the change and the slider were right on with his previous pitches. No way you could possibly make a determination based off that sample size.

[Guest]

This reminds me of the debate that went on regarding Romeo Crenel deciding to go for 2 when up by 7 against the Titans, instead of taking the kick to go up by 8. He was getting crushed for making the wrong call by the numbers, but that completely ignored what RAC knew...which is that his defense could not stop Tennessee from scoring, it could not stop them from getting the 2 point conversion after they scored. The only way his terrible team wins the game is to go up by two scores with 2 minutes to play.

They didn't execute on the 2 point conversion and lost in OT without ever taking another offensive snap.

Analytics are an aid to decision making, but you still need to know your team and put them into the best position to win and aggregate data doesn't always give the best decision given what is actually occurring on the field of play.

[Joe]

9 minutes ago, Amazatron said:

 

Snell threw 4 total pitches in the inning. The curveball and fastball were 2 mph slower, the change and the slider were right on with his previous pitches. No way you could possibly make a determination based off that sample size.

 

It was still the lowest he had thrown in the entire game. Combined with the fact that the deepest he had gone in a game in the regular season was 5.2 innings, the decision makes perfect sense. I highly doubt the FO has any issues with Cash's decision.

[johnny]

Yeah probably cuz the FO are the idiots that said Snell has to come out once Betts is up a third time no matter what 

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, johnny said:

Yeah probably cuz the FO are the idiots that said Snell has to come out once Betts is up a third time no matter what 

 

I thought they were going to fire him tho? Not that you said that.

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

It was still the lowest he had thrown in the entire game. Combined with the fact that the deepest he had gone in a game in the regular season was 5.2 innings, the decision makes perfect sense. I highly doubt the FO has any issues with Cash's decision.

They didn't make the decision to pull him in previous starts because he couldn't go longer, they pulled him in previous starts because the data suggests it's the smartest play. And in the aggregate it probably is. The argument here is when and how do you make a decision that is not dictated by the aggregate. I would argue "Pitcher is murdering all the best hitters on the best offense and is barely 70 pitches in" as a solid scenario in which you use your brain over the cold hard numbers.

[Joe]

1 minute ago, sblfilms said:

They didn't make the decision to pull him in previous starts because he couldn't go longer, the pulled him in previous starts because the data suggests it's the smartest play. And in the aggregate it probably is. The argument here is when and how do you make a decision that is not dictated by the aggregate. I would argue "Pitcher is murdering all the best hitters on the best offense and is barely 70 pitches in" as a solid scenario in which you use your brain over the cold hard numbers.

 

No, he was hurt to start the year. That's why he had not pitched deep into games. It would have been unbelievably risky to let that game be the one where he tried to finish 6 innings.

 

[Amazatron]

4 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

No, he was hurt to start the year. That's why he had not pitched deep into games. It would have been unbelievably risky to let that game be the one where he tried to finish 6 innings.

Because there’s some magic barrier at six innings where his arm was going to fall off? He had thrown 108 pitches in a previous start this year. It had nothing to do with arm health.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

No, he was hurt to start the year. That's why he had not pitched deep into games. It would have been unbelievably risky to let that game be the one where he tried to finish 6 innings.

 

What does the number of innings matter? Your arm doesn't care how many innings you've pitched. It does care how many pitches you've thrown, and Snell was well below his season average for pitches when he got pulled last night. He got pulled in all those other games for the same exact reason, third time through. It's not even debatable. He was only limited the first three starts of the season due to injury concerns.

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, Amazatron said:

Because there’s some magic barrier at six innings where his arm was going to fall off? He had thrown 108 pitches in a previous start this year. It had nothing to do with arm health.

 

It was the fact that he had not pitched previously that deep into a game and his arm was not prepared for it. I don't think they were worried about arm health, either.

[Amazatron]

2 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

It was the fact that he had not pitched previously that deep into a game and his arm was not prepared for it. I don't think they were worried about arm health, either.

“Deep” into the game is solely pitch count. Has nothing to do with whether it’s the 5th or 7th inning.

[Guest]

Yes, again, your arm doesn't know what inning it is 

[Joe]

12 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

What does the number of innings matter? Your arm doesn't care how many innings you've pitched. It does care how many pitches you've thrown, and Snell was well below his season average for pitches when he got pulled last night. He got pulled in all those other games for the same exact reason, third time through. It's not even debatable. He was only limited the first three starts of the season due to injury concerns.

 

This is verifiably false. Look at his 2019 and 2018 numbers. The announcers even mentioned that it took Snell a while into this season before he felt like himself.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Joe said:

 

This is verifiably false. Look at his 2019 and 2018 numbers. The announcers even mentioned that it took Snell a while into this season before he felt like himself.

Which part is verifiably false? That he was only limited in pitches the first three games of the season? Or that he was pulled repeatedly as the beginning of the third time through? Because those are quite clearly seen in the data.

And it's really just the Rays way. Look at how often there starters get pulled after 5-5.2IP in 2020. Why might that be?

[Joe]

4 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Which part is verifiably false? That he was only limited in pitches the first three games of the season? Or that he was pulled repeatedly as the beginning of the third time through? Because those are quite clearly seen in the data.

And it's really just the Rays way. Look at how often there starters get pulled after 5-5.2IP in 2020. Why might that be?

 

He was pulled early-ish this year because he was recovering from injury. Cash was around in 2018 and 2019, so it doesn't make sense that he just started instituting that rule this year.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

He was pulled early-ish this year because he was recovering from injury. Cash was around in 2018 and 2019, so it doesn't make sense that he just started instituting that rule this year.

He did it repeatedly throughout the year for all his starters. It’s quite clear, he rarely let pitchers go through the order a third time and he picked a particularly bad time not to make an exception to that strategy.

[Dodger]

It's Snells last start of the season and a win or go home game for the Rays. Not some random August game against Baltimore or something. If there was ever a time to let it fly for another 20-30 pitches, last night was it. He literally wasn't going to pitch again this season so what are you saving him for. 

[johnny]

Analytics are great. Following them works out A LOT in the regular season, when you get to play average and below average teams. Applying them in the postseason still works more often than not. But the postseason is different. You’re playing elite teams every game. There’s a lot more pressure and people react to it differently. Your analytics don’t account for the fact that bringing in Anderson was a horrible move for two reasons: 1. Betts hits much better against a righty. 2. Snell was dealing in what is a unique situation that analytics can’t pick up on.

 

you have to ride the hot hand sometimes, especially when the hot hand is your BEST PITCHER

 

[Dodger]

It's also possible that it could have been the right move and that Anderson was just the wrong guy to bring in. Still, At this point the bullpen was gassed for both teams and it looked like Snell could have gone through at least the next inning. 

 

Urias is 24 and has a history of arm injuries and he has just started game 4 two days earlier, Roberts still decided he was his best option to close out the game and let him do it because he knew he didn't have anyone more reliable to go to. 

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, johnny said:

you have to ride the hot hand sometimes, especially when the hot hand is your BEST PITCHER

It can’t be overstated enough that Snell is the best arm on the team, so you’re guaranteed bringing in a worse option than your best pitcher while he is pitching exceptionally well.

[Joe]

2 hours ago, sblfilms said:

He did it repeatedly throughout the year for all his starters. It’s quite clear, he rarely let pitchers go through the order a third time and he picked a particularly bad time not to make an exception to that strategy.

 

Morton was recovering from injury and Glasnow just doesn't pitch deep into games. I see no evidence that he just changed how he coaches this year out of nowhere. 

[Joe]

"Analytics are overrated" says the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and A's fan. LMAO!

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Morton was recovering from injury and Glasnow just doesn't pitch deep into games. I see no evidence that he just changed how he coaches this year out of nowhere. 

Besides the consistent decrease in innings pitched directly at the inflection point where the lineup most often turns over for the third time?

 

3 minutes ago, Joe said:

"Analytics are overrated" says the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and A's fan. LMAO!

 

Thanks for making the trolling more obvious since the argument is not whether analytics are overrated or not, but how to utilize them best.

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Besides the consistent decrease in innings pitched directly at the inflection point where the lineup most often turns over for the third time?

 

 

Thanks for making the trolling more obvious since the argument is not whether analytics are overrated or not, but how to utilize them best.

 

1. Show me that data. 

 

2. I'm honestly not trolling (well not entirely lol), but we have seen some fairly anti-analytics posts in this thread. Perhaps I unfairly grouped you in with those posters. but such is life!

[Biggie]

2 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

1. Show me that data. 

 

2. I'm honestly not trolling (well not entirely lol), but we have seen some fairly anti-analytics posts in this thread. Perhaps I unfairly grouped you in with those posters. but such is life!

[Joe]

27 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

It can’t be overstated enough that Snell is the best arm on the team, so you’re guaranteed bringing in a worse option than your best pitcher while he is pitching exceptionally well.

 

Snell for one inning? Sure! Snell TTTO with a velocity drop vs maybe the best RP in baseball? The latter is preferable.

[Guest]

The only analytics notion at play here is third time through the order. Actual situational strategy was tossed out in favor of the view from 35,000 feet. Cash deserves allllll the grief he’s getting.

[Joe]

I mean I disagree, but I'm not going to sway anyone, so what's the point of discussing it further.

 

Let's move on to bigger issues like what an asshole Justin Turner is!