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Microsoft/Activision Blizzard Acquisition - Information Thread, update: The Deal Has Closed


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20 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

The idea of a PC in this form factor is relatively new.  I think that actually gives it more appeal than the PSP (or Vita) ever had.  The way its being packaged is also much more accessible than PC gaming has been before.  It's Valve moving into dedicated handheld territory, if anything.
 

 

3DS didn't exactly do gangbusters out of the gate either.  When Nintendo's software is underwhelming at launch, it spells a bit more trouble for them.

I don't think Nintendo could be easily beaten, or will be.  But they are going to lose some of the pie.  How much depends on how well Valve positions the Deck against Nintendo's shortcomings.

 

I just think it’s wishing for more of an impact for the deck than even Valve expects along with everything else, and even then I’m feeling different market sets for the two. I mean anything could be anything I guess, I’m just not seeing it at all, agree to disagree!

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3 minutes ago, Zarich said:

Wow.. first Minecraft and now this.  I am sad because I worry this will Halo Diablo.  For those who remember what Halo was suppose to be before MS bought them... yes Halo is popular, but not what was originally planned.

It wasn't Microsoft that made Bungie turn Halo from an RTS to FPS. That was all decided by Bungie internally.

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1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

The idea of a PC in this form factor is relatively new.  I think that actually gives it more appeal than the PSP (or Vita) ever had.  The way its being packaged is also much more accessible than PC gaming has been before.  It's Valve moving into dedicated handheld territory, if anything.

 

3DS didn't exactly do gangbusters out of the gate either.  When Nintendo's software is underwhelming at launch, it spells a bit more trouble for them.

I don't think Nintendo could be easily beaten, or will be.  But they are going to lose some of the pie.  How much depends on how well Valve positions the Deck against Nintendo's shortcomings.

 

Valve still has a lot to prove on the hardware front. Their only successful piece of hardware to date, the Index, is used by fewer than 20% of their own VR users with the lion's share going to some flavor of Facebook hardware. Steam Machines? Stream Link? The Steam Controller? Given their history, I have no idea why anyone would be bullish on Valve succeeding with a $400+ handheld launching in the middle of a massive components shortage. I'm sure it'll do well with the RGB gamers, but that's likely new market.

 

Something to keep in mind about poor launch 3DS sales is that it came at the price of continued DS sales. People not buying a 3DS weren't buying some other non-Nintendo handheld.

 

Microsoft is the only ones that could really take a chunk out of Nintendo's grip on the market. I would instantly buy an ARM-powered handheld meant for light gaming or game streaming from the now even more massive library of Game Pass games. I'd go back in time and buy that yesterday. I troll AliExpress looking for some less shitty Android gaming handheld. The GDP XP looks pretty sweet, but I'd rather have something made by Microsoft coming in around the same price.

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I know that the announcement throws the word "Metaverse" in there like it means something or matters to anyone other than Zuck, but I think there is actually some relevance here worth thinking about.

 

Most conceptions of the metaverse entail a rather complete interoperability. If I move my avatar between spaces, it should be consistent. This is obviously one of the biggest stumbling blocks of the whole idea, but I do think there's more possibility for some various siloed metaverses. Microsoft is building up quite the collection of valuable IPs where people spend a lot of time. Should any stripped down version of a metaverse happen anytime soon, it's easy to see MS having an advantage in being able to carry things over between all these IPs.

 

I'd still say that even that kind of stripped down, siloed metaverse has yet to prove to be a worthwhile idea, but MS may well give it a go anyways.

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2 hours ago, stepee said:

 

I just think it’s wishing for more of an impact for the deck than even Valve expects along with everything else, and even then I’m feeling different market sets for the two. I mean anything could be anything I guess, I’m just not seeing it at all, agree to disagree!


People always like to say that Nintendo exists on an island where the rest of the industry doesn’t matter to their business.  I’ve never felt that to be true, because Nintendo platforms can fluctuate wildly on the success/bomb scale from one gen to the next.

 

I just don’t see people who want indie games portably being beholden to Nintendo.  We’ve already seen the ‘indie darling’ label jump across platforms before, including to Nintendo’s from elsewhere.  There’s nothing to say they’ll keep it.  Even if we dismiss the Deck also vying for it.  (though really, we shouldn’t)

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2 hours ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

Valve still has a lot to prove on the hardware front. Their only successful piece of hardware to date, the Index, is used by fewer than 20% of their own VR users with the lion's share going to some flavor of Facebook hardware. Steam Machines? Stream Link? The Steam Controller? Given their history, I have no idea why anyone would be bullish on Valve succeeding with a $400+ handheld launching in the middle of a massive components shortage. I'm sure it'll do well with the RGB gamers, but that's likely new market.

 

Something to keep in mind about poor launch 3DS sales is that it came at the price of continued DS sales. People not buying a 3DS weren't buying some other non-Nintendo handheld.

 

Microsoft is the only ones that could really take a chunk out of Nintendo's grip on the market. I would instantly buy an ARM-powered handheld meant for light gaming or game streaming from the now even more massive library of Game Pass games. I'd go back in time and buy that yesterday. I troll AliExpress looking for some less shitty Android gaming handheld. The GDP XP looks pretty sweet, but I'd rather have something made by Microsoft coming in around the same price.


100% agreed that Valve’s history with hardware isn’t great.  And that the chip shortage is really going to put a damper on any potential they have with it regardless.

 

The difference I see with the Deck is that they’re leveraging their existing storefront/compatibility/product key approach in more desirable form factor than the past.  Specifically, trying to build PC’s for the living room failed for them because anyone who wanted that was already doing it, or enjoyed their console well enough.  Whereas if the Deck fails to find an inroad into portable gaming, it’ll be because most people find that the Switch is good enough.

 

I’d agree with you that subscriptions services are also a threat.  Nintendo may have the ability to Disney+ things one day.  But only if they can let go of their cash hoard and join the arms race for acquisitions.  

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mercury33 said:

The best thing I’ve taken from this thread is the idea that Nintendo gives a flying fuck about the Steam Deck 😂😂😂 I literally can’t stop laughing. 


Pretending their competitors didn’t exist is how we ended up with the Wii U.  I sure hope they have a better pulse on what’s happening in the industry now apart from them.

 

All these buyouts included.  Next Level Games almost got snatched from them.

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57 minutes ago, Mercury33 said:

That’s not at all why the WiiU failed. The marketing and messaging was shit and they overestimated the readiness of the Wii user base to move on to another system so quickly. 


There was many reasons it failed.  Making a standard console with a worse CPU than the 360/PS3 was really stupid from a dev support angle at the time.  It took the Switch for them to finally get UE4, for that reason.

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44 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

Pretending their competitors didn’t exist is how we ended up with the Wii U.  I sure hope they have a better pulse on what’s happening in the industry now apart from them.

 

All these buyouts included.  Next Level Games almost got snatched from them.

 

The Wii U has zero to do with Nintendo's success with the Switch. Nintendo has been number one in the dedicated handheld console market since they created it back in 89.

 

Either way, we're really over estimating Valve here. PlayStation Network has what? 105m monthly active players? That's the same Sony that had some really slick hardware that was competitively priced, was readily available at every big box retailer on the planet, and had honest to God exclusives. The same Sony that had a legit success with the PSP. Steam has 120m monthly users on their free platform. That extra 15m players aren't really going to make much of a difference here.

 

Nintendo mostly ignored the PSP and that thing moved 80m units. Valve isn't selling a Deck 2/3 of their entire active user base. That's the level Valve has to approach to move the needle here.

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11 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

Either way, we're really over estimating Valve here. PlayStation Network has what? 105m monthly active players? That's the same Sony that had some really slick hardware that was competitively priced, was readily available at every big box retailer on the planet, and had honest to God exclusives. The same Sony that had a legit success with the PSP. Steam has 120m monthly users on their free platform. That extra 15m players aren't really going to make much of a difference here.

 

Nintendo mostly ignored the PSP and that thing moved 80m units. Valve isn't selling a Deck 2/3 of their entire active user base. That's the level Valve has to approach to move the needle here.


If anyone with a Deck stops buying indie games and multiplats on Nintendo platforms full stop, that’s a different threat to Nintendo’s business than the PSP was.

 

I don’t expect the Deck to outsell the PSP.  It wouldn’t need to in order to have a greater impact on Nintendo’s bottom line.

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58 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:


Pretending their competitors didn’t exist is how we ended up with the Wii U.  I sure hope they have a better pulse on what’s happening in the industry now apart from them.

 

All these buyouts included.  Next Level Games almost got snatched from them.

 

They are 'competitors' the same way Porsche competes with Kia. Same product category, wildly different markets.

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9 minutes ago, Chris- said:

 

They are 'competitors' the same way Porsche competes with Kia. Same product category, wildly different markets.

 

Insert Disney+ and Netflix into that equation for a closer equivalent, IMO.  And it only kinda works.

 

Nintendo owns the dedicated gaming handheld market, so in some ways it’s further out still.  But that’s why talking about other portables is relevant.

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35 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:


If anyone with a Deck stops buying indie games and multiplats on Nintendo platforms full stop, that’s a different threat to Nintendo’s business than the PSP was.

 

I don’t expect the Deck to outsell the PSP.  It wouldn’t need to in order to have a greater impact on Nintendo’s bottom line.

 

The number of Decks that would have to be sold for Nintendo to care about the lack of sales from INDIES would have to be in the PSP sales category. Anything less and it doesn't make a difference. There's are 100m+ Switches out there. Anything less likely doesn't even become a bullet in an unrelated slide in any presentations made for the exec team.

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32 minutes ago, johnny said:

if sony wanted to make a similar bombshell purchase could they realistically afford something like this? it’s such an insane amount of money. idk how much they get from their other revenue streams. 

A Bethesda type deal ($10B range)? Absolutely. This type of deal? No. 
 

I don’t see them making any major acquisitions. You need the cash to not only acquire a major studio(s) but then cash to fund it and it’s next game. Sony’s business plans seems to buy through organic relationships developed. I could see them buying From Software over Sega or SE. I think Sony will definitely lock in more exclusives from Japanese Publishers like Persona 6, FFXVI, DQXII. 
 

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13 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

The number of Decks that would have to be sold for Nintendo to care about the lack of sales from INDIES would have to be in the PSP sales category. Anything less and it doesn't make a difference. There's are 100m+ Switches out there. Anything less likely doesn't even become a bullet in an unrelated slide in any presentations made for the exec team.


*While the Switch maintains its relevance 

 

Deck is beginning the next gen of handhelds.  Nintendo will announce something new before too long.  This is more relevant for what comes next than affecting Switch, where they’ve already built a huge install base and indie prominence.

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31 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

Insert Disney+ and Netflix into that equation for a closer equivalent, IMO.  And it only kinda works.

 

Nintendo owns the dedicated gaming handheld market, so in some ways it’s further out still.  But that’s why talking about other portables is relevant.

 

You keep mentioning products and services instead of markets; those are not the same thing. 

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