Update (10/04): September job creation report comes in far higher than expected, reducing chances for 50 basis point cut in November

[marioandsonic]

20 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

What does this mean?

[Chris-]

56 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

What does this mean?

It would mean all consumer goods less food/energy only rose 0.1% month over month (the real figure ended up being 0.3%, which is still not terrible). It means that - for now - the inflation we are seeing is more or less contained to select industries/products. 

[Brian]

It means all those people who finally got long overdue raises are still getting fucked 

[CitizenVectron]

Glad I locked in my 1.59% mortgage rate for 5 years.

[CitizenVectron]

Just now, ManUtdRedDevils said:

It means all those people who finally got long overdue raises are still getting fucked 

 

When I took my current job, I was ecstatic because we have a transparent salary grid that increases by 5.5%/yr for the first seven years in a position, and we also get whatever raises the teachers union negotiates with the government (current contract is 0-2-2). So this year I get around 7.5%. But...this is basically only protecting me from inflation, and I am a lucky person.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

14 minutes ago, Chris- said:

It would mean all consumer goods less food/energy only rose 0.1% month over month (the real figure ended up being 0.3%, which is still not terrible). It means that - for now - the inflation we are seeing is more or less contained to select industries/products. 

 

The bond market has reacted accordingly:

 

10-year Treasury yield pulls back from 3-year high after core CPI comes in lighter than expected

WWW.CNBC.COM

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The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated from a three-year high as investors digested the latest inflation report.

 

Quote

Investors seemed to take solace from the core CPI, excluding food and energy, which increased 6.5% year over year, in line with the expectation. Month to month, core CPI rose 0.3%, lighter than the 0.5% expectation.

 

[Bacon]

My favorite chocolate milk is 6 bucks a gallon... 

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

The bond market has reacted accordingly:

 

10-year Treasury yield pulls back from 3-year high after core CPI comes in lighter than expected

WWW.CNBC.COM

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The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated from a three-year high as investors digested the latest inflation report.

 

 

 

I Bonds gonna be at nearly 10% at least.

 

The Safe Investment That Will Soon Yield Almost 10%

WWW.WSJ.COM

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The March surge in the consumer-price index is the latest boon to buyers of U.S. savings bonds that are adjusted for inflation, known as I Bonds.

 

[mclumber1]

The Democrats will absolutely not be able to convince voters this November that inflation isn't their fault.  

[CitizenVectron]

8 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

The Democrats will absolutely not be able to convince voters this November that inflation isn't their fault.  

 

The future of America is both parties attempting to keep gasoline sub $3/gallon at the expense of everything else in existence, and voters rewarding them for it.

[Zaku3]

16 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

The future of America is both parties attempting to keep gasoline sub $3/gallon at the expense of everything else in existence, and voters rewarding them for it.

 

Miyazaki should make a Souls Trilogy about fighting to keep things going when it's clearly time to go home. Ooo wait we have that in Dark Souls.

[stepee]

If GOP takes over house/senate this November, I hope someone thinks of giving more money to rich people, I think that would probably fix all of this and everything.

[Nokra]

I'm totally fine with gas going to $6/gallon or more if it means we move away from fossil fuels, but I drive a Prius. 

 

[rc0101]

6 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The Fed is totally gonna raise rates by 100 basis points @rc0101

 

Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March, slightly hotter than expected and the highest since 1981

WWW.CNBC.COM

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The consumer price index for March was expected to increase 8.4% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates.

 

 

The fed will overreact for sure. 1.50% fed funds rate by June is what we are operating under with a 50 basis point increase after their May meeting. 

[rc0101]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

10 hours ago, rc0101 said:

 

 

That right there is a "flight to safety".

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Powell says taming inflation 'absolutely essential,' and a 50 basis point hike possible for May

WWW.CNBC.COM

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday affirmed the central bank's determination to bring inflation down.

 

For Heaven's sake, stop talking about it and just do it already!

[rc0101]

1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Powell says taming inflation 'absolutely essential,' and a 50 basis point hike possible for May

WWW.CNBC.COM

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday affirmed the central bank's determination to bring inflation down.

 

For Heaven's sake, stop talking about it and just do it already!

They took April off so they might go really crazy in May. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

6 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

They took April off so they might go really crazy in May. 

 

I was just speaking with my mom's Morgan Stanley investment advisor and we agreed that 75 basis points in May definitely isn't off the table, and there is an ever-so-remote chance of 100 basis points if the Fed was REALLY feeling wild n' crazy!

[GeneticBlueprint]

I'm not a money/finance person... What are basis points?

[Jason]

Just now, GeneticBlueprint said:

I'm not a money/finance person... What are basis points?

 

25 basis points = 0.25%

[GeneticBlueprint]

Why not just say 0.25%?

[rc0101]

3 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

I was just speaking with my mom's Morgan Stanley investment advisor and we agreed that 75 basis points in May definitely isn't off the table, and there is an ever-so-remote chance of 100 basis points if the Fed was REALLY feeling wild n' crazy!

100 would cause the ultimate meltdown…so I believe it’s possible that Fed does this. 
 

My guess is 50 basis points May 3-4th and 50 June 14-15 meetings. Although 75 in either May or June would get them to a nice 1.50 in June

[Jason]

1 minute ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

Why not just say 0.25%?

 

I think the point is that "it went up 0.25%" can be ambiguous. For example if interest rates are 2% and you say "it went up 0.25%" that could be taken as either 2%+0.25%=2.25% or 2%*1.0025=2.005%. So if you talk about it in basis points it can only mean the former.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Unless the goddamn congress would do something about affordable housing you can kiss a generation of homebuyers goodbye. 

[rc0101]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I think the point is that "it went up 0.25%" can be ambiguous. For example if interest rates are 2% and you say "it went up 0.25%" that could be taken as either 2%+0.25%=2.25% or 2%*1.0025=2.005%. So if you talk about it in basis points it can only mean the former.

Exactly this. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

9 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

100 would cause the ultimate meltdown…so I believe it’s possible that Fed does this. 
 

My guess is 50 basis points May 3-4th and 50 June 14-15 meetings. Although 75 in either May or June would get them to a nice 1.50 in June

 

If the Fed went the full 100 basis points, the yield curve inversion would be SOMETHING to behold! 

[Guest]

I feel confident in one thing: the Fed is going to cock this up 

[CitizenVectron]

Going to be a lot of people with variable mortgages going under.

[Jason]

18 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Unless the goddamn congress would do something about affordable housing you can kiss a generation of homebuyers goodbye. 

 

nationalized japanse-style zoning

[rc0101]

5 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Going to be a lot of people with variable mortgages going under.

They haven't been very popular the past decade but will start to become more popular as rates rise.

[Ghost_MH]

25 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Unless the goddamn congress would do something about affordable housing you can kiss a generation of homebuyers goodbye. 

 

Housing as a service. In 2030, my neighborhood is owned by Amazon Homed and, conveniently, my rent includes free Prime.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said:

 

Housing as a service. In 2030, my neighborhood is owned by Amazon Homed and, conveniently, my rent includes free Prime.

Some “crypto native” tech bro is definitely going to rebrand renting as “HaaS”, aren’t they?

[Ghost_MH]

8 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Some “crypto native” tech bro is definitely going to rebrand renting as “HaaS”, aren’t they?

 

Tech bros have been throwing around term for nearly a decade now; long before even Zillow was going around buying everything they could. Most people "rent" their phones, everyone rents the software on their computers, video and game and music ownership is on the decline. HaaS is an obvious next step.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

There’s got to be an avocado toast joke about millennials and housing if it’s going to be called HaaS