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Inflation sucks bruh


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I mean, inflation was already decided as being something that was going to be a huge part of the 22/24 elections. It’s been teased out as soon as Trump lost. So we were always going to be forced to talk about it for the next few years no matter what happens. Seems dumb right now cuz pandemic stuff but wether we have a problem with it or not, yeah we can’t discount it.

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33 minutes ago, Chris- said:

Comparing inflation YoY to 2020 is some lulzy shit. Gee, I wonder if anything happened last year to wildly curtail the expected rate of inflation!

Yep. For all we know we're returning to 2019 price levels. We went through a massive deflationary event last year! But none of the reporting I've seen thus far keeps this context.

 

Does this mean that inflation and fears of inflation should be discounted? No, but the irresponsible reporting isn't helping anyone.

 

There's probably some inflation but we could manage it a lot better if we legalized the production of dense housing in our metro areas connected by mass transit and other transportation alternatives to cars. Food and cars also seem to have issues in particular due to the pandemic (remember infections and deaths in meat packing facilities? I'd assume this is harming the labor pool regardless of pay! and cars have the same microprocessor issues that everyone is having due to demand and the supply issues due to the pandemic)

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53 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Yep. For all we know we're returning to 2019 price levels. We went through a massive deflationary event last year! But none of the reporting I've seen thus far keeps this context.

 

The 2020 inflation rate wasn’t even the lowest in the last decade though, and even taking the highest rate of the last decade and comparing the delta between that and the annualized rates we are seeing this year, 2021 is at the top of the chart for most of our lifetimes.

 

There are certainly good questions to ask about what is the cause, or more likely causes, and whether or not the ballooning inflation is worth it for the benefits of those causes.

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I mean, it seems to my dumb, uneducated mind that the two main causes of inflation (in this order) are:

  • Global supply chain issues/shortages caused by the pandemic
  • Spending caused by the pandemic

This isn't to brush aside concerns about how this inflation is going to affect regular people (because it is), but for people slamming current governments over this inflation, the question needs to be: what could have been done differently/better to prevent this inflation? Because as far as I see, there isn't much. Yes, spending could have been better controlled in specific circumstances (made more efficient, etc). But getting money out to people quickly was of utmost importance. And, as the great resignation shows, the financial aids weren't the cause of people not returning to shitty jobs. The implication of much of the criticism of current inflation is that anti-virus efforts are to blame (which is certainly true), and that they shouldn't have been undertaken. I'm not talking about criticism from people going "wow gas is high, this sucks," I'm talking about the pundits, etc.

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Inflation is primarily being caused by consumers buying more goods than services because of the pandemic.  We have been told this is transitory, but it’s not unless that means 2-5 years. Inflation will be here with us until we scale up our ports and fill job positions related to logistics. The transitory conventional wisdom is probably wrong, or maybe I am. 

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6 minutes ago, Joe said:


We almost bought a Rav 4 a couple of months ago. It was 50k out the door. Like wtf?

“Well you qualified for 0% for 72 months so the payment is only $650! What a steal.  What do you mean you don’t want a 6 year loan? Depreciation is overrated. It’s basically free money.”  
 

We looked at VW, Kia, and Hyundai and came away shocked at the quotes. 

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40 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

Inflation is primarily being caused by consumers buying more goods than services because of the pandemic.  We have been told this is transitory, but it’s not unless that means 2-5 years. Inflation will be here with us until we scale up our ports and fill job positions related to logistics. The transitory conventional wisdom is probably wrong, or maybe I am. 

I will say it is deeper than transportation and logistics jobs. We basically took the 2019 economy but with the labor market(prime age participation rate and U6 unemployment) of the late 2017 early 2018 era. We've removed 3 million people from the labor market! (& only a fraction of that number is directly from covid illness and death)

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44 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I will say it is deeper than transportation and logistics jobs. We basically took the 2019 economy but with the labor market(prime age participation rate and U6 unemployment) of the late 2017 early 2018 era. We've removed 3 million people from the labor market! (& only a fraction of that number is directly from covid illness and death)

It is. There’s a cultural issue that’s deeper.

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As much as I love it I want to get rid of my luxo murder truck Jason would hate because I rarely drive anymore but used car prices are nuts and I can’t bring myself to pay a ton for a relative bucket. But I should figure something out soon and start saving some money.

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4 hours ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

I need to replace my 2009 car so I started some car shopping and mother of god, the price of a car is ridiculous.  

 

When the pandemic hit I did regret buying a brand new Mazda 3 in July of 2019, considering my commute when from a round trip of 60 miles a day to nothing.  I just checked, it's only lost $1000 in value in two years, which is insane.

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If you have time to decide, I'd recommend special ordering a car instead of buying one off the lot.  Special orders are less susceptible to insane dealer markups, and some dealerships even make it a point to sell at MSRP for ordered vehicles.  You'll have to wait though - I ordered a Ford Maverick back in June, and I'll be lucky if I get it in November. 

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I have a 2013 Focus which I paid off in 2018 or 2019. Since then I've just been dumping the same amount as my monthly payment into a high-interest savings account (between 1.5% and 2.5% interest). So, I now have enough cash to effectively buy a used car whenever I want to. I was planning on doing that this year (and getting a 2-or-3-year-old Toyota or Honda sedan), but now the prices on used cars are also through the roof. So, I'll keep saving, and hopefully my car continues to run. 

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25 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

I have a 2013 Focus which I paid off in 2018 or 2019. Since then I've just been dumping the same amount as my monthly payment into a high-interest savings account (between 1.5% and 2.5% interest). So, I now have enough cash to effectively buy a used car whenever I want to. I was planning on doing that this year (and getting a 2-or-3-year-old Toyota or Honda sedan), but now the prices on used cars are also through the roof. So, I'll keep saving, and hopefully my car continues to run. 

 

I may consider this once things get better for me. I kinda want a new car but I don't actually want a car note. My 2012 Lincoln MKZ Hybrid is still going strong so it might just be better to ride it until the wheels fall off. More money for space marines.

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1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

I have a 2013 Focus which I paid off in 2018 or 2019. Since then I've just been dumping the same amount as my monthly payment into a high-interest savings account (between 1.5% and 2.5% interest). So, I now have enough cash to effectively buy a used car whenever I want to. I was planning on doing that this year (and getting a 2-or-3-year-old Toyota or Honda sedan), but now the prices on used cars are also through the roof. So, I'll keep saving, and hopefully my car continues to run. 

 

My car is a 2012 Focus that I paid off in 2016.  I'm hoping it can last me at least a couple more years.

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Dollar’s actually on an uptrend after a big dip earlier in the year following the early 2021 USD ‘dead cat bounce’. If we’re lucky that means this is transitory.  A lot of the inflation is partially related to the earlier devaluation, IMO, which started during the COVID recession and exacerbated the inflationary pressures fomented by disruptions in supply chains and the labor market.

 

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Whatever the case ends up being, it’s interesting to see the tame reaction to the Fed’s preliminary round of tightening.  They just tapered their QE operations and the markets barely blinked.  That wasn’t the case the last time they tried.

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