CitizenVectron Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 Like look at this shit. It's 100% imported from the USA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 I think this is something that will hurt O'Toole from breaking out in Quebec. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 Interesting little thread on why maybe the IVR pollsters show a bigger CPC lead than online or phone pollsters: This could have merit, making the CPC lead bigger than it is...but at the same time, it also shows that CPC enthusiasm is higher, which is a big advantage on election day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 12 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: Interesting little thread on why maybe the IVR pollsters show a bigger CPC lead than online or phone pollsters: This could have merit, making the CPC lead bigger than it is...but at the same time, it also shows that CPC enthusiasm is higher, which is a big advantage on election day. IMO, the direction of the polls is probably more accurate than their absolute numbers. I would guess that they will be more accurate after Labour Day, when people are more likely to not be on vacation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 We're now in a world where supposedly credible people are turning into conspiracy theorists who believe that the current CPC slogan is a dog-whistle for Neo-Nazis. (For those who think he was joking, he has doubled-down on this.) David Fisman is the UofT professor that recently resigned from the Ontario Science Table because he felt they were ignoring his Covid modelling, and received national media attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 If you're in political communications it should absolutely be in your job to make sure you're not casually using, even innocently or incidentally, well known hate tropes and phrases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 First candidate drops out. I'm sure there will be more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: If you're in political communications it should absolutely be in your job to make sure you're not casually using, even innocently or incidentally, well known hate tropes and phrases. No. I think we should live in a world where we don't have conspiracy theorists that try and link centrist political parties to racist hate groups from other countries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 If this stuff continues, this will possibly run away and cost the CPC a lot of squishy centrist votes. -edit- Lets not forget that O'Toole pulled some of this shit during his leadership race. Talking about 'old stock canadians'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said: No. I think we should live in a world where we don't have conspiracy theorists that try and link centrist political parties to racist hate groups from other countries. Or maybe someone in political communications should have a better understanding of hate rhetoric and that you can't repurpose it for not hateful aims. That should be part of their job, hell that is their job. I'm not even accusing them of doing this purposefully but just ignoring the international historical context of certain phrases in a shared language is just so, so stupid. Hell, political rhetoric is often shared between us anglo countries, so you need to be aware at a surface level of what is going on! Again, this was done by a paid political operative and not some idiot online. They should know better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 56 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: While I do believe the direction of that poll, it is worth keeping in mind two things: Angus Reid has a very strong pro-CPC house effect (just as strong as IRG's pro-LPC house effect). No one else has Trudeau that underwater in approval (usually around 0 to -5) Bryan Breguet has his own anti-LPC bias. You should check out some of his comments on twitter from a few months ago. He...does not like the current government. He really shouldn't be running an ostensibly neutral poll aggregator/predictor while being so open about his own beliefs, it definitely taints his commentary on the current polling. He's kind of like the Nate Silver of Canadian politics (only less intelligent/knowledgeable—stick to your analysis and leave the commentary out) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: While I do believe the direction of that poll, it is worth keeping in mind two things: Angus Reid has a very strong pro-CPC house effect (just as strong as IRG's pro-LPC house effect). No one else has Trudeau that underwater in approval (usually around 0 to -5) Bryan Breguet has his own anti-LPC bias. You should check out some of his comments on twitter from a few months ago. He...does not like the current government. He really shouldn't be running an ostensibly neutral poll aggregator/predictor while being so open about his own beliefs, it definitely taints his commentary on the current polling. He's kind of like the Nate Silver of Canadian politics (only less intelligent/knowledgeable—stick to your analysis and leave the commentary out) They're all different perspectives that help us piece together a total picture. Frank Graves is the most outwardly biased person in the industry that I have seen -- I still post data from him. For Good measure: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Edit: Posted too early This will only explain why the IVR polling results have changed -- this disconnect between IVR and online may remain unanswered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 I guess he didn't want to wait until tomorrow: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 I wonder if the anti-vaxxers realize that screaming racial slurs and death threats might actually end up helping Trudeau. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said: Edit: Posted too early This will only explain why the IVR polling results have changed -- this disconnect between IVR and online may remain unanswered. I don't understand how anybody could look at 1-3 & 7 and think O'Toole would have done better. 4-6 I can see someone might see the CPC better on but that comes down to persona/party bias. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 I expect we'll see some tightening, and then another swing in some direct after the debates. Oh, also, there are apparently three French debates/interviews planned, and only one in English. The English networks in Canada really suck at organizing debates. There needs to be one with just Trudeau, O'Toole, and Singh, with maybe Blanchet for the final fifteen minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 However the Abacus poll is weird, as it shows the Liberals behind in Quebec (which no one else does), but up in ON. Weird how none of the polls paint a consistent picture. Perhaps it is just the summer results? Hopefully a clearer image comes out in the next week or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Not a great answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I mention this before but if knowing this was part of the LPC play then it makes more sense to do an ad blitz after Labour Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Time to start those coalition discussions with the NDP, Justin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodyHell Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 13 hours ago, chakoo said: I don't understand how anybody could look at 1-3 & 7 and think O'Toole would have done better. 4-6 I can see someone might see the CPC better on but that comes down to persona/party bias. Trudeau tried to stop a vote calling the Uhghur (sp?) Muslim genocide a genocide, and you believe he'd be better at standing up for Canada and against other countries? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, BloodyHell said: Trudeau tried to stop a vote calling the Uhghur (sp?) Muslim genocide a genocide, and you believe he'd be better at standing up for Canada and against other countries? He didn't stop it, he and his cabinet just did not participate. If you think the CPC in power would have acted differently then you're naive. Harper and the CPC had no issue selling out Canada to China just the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 13 hours ago, chakoo said: I don't understand how anybody could look at 1-3 & 7 and think O'Toole would have done better. 4-6 I can see someone might see the CPC better on but that comes down to persona/party bias. Everyone's views are down to personal bias. I personally think that Singh do a significantly better job tackling almost any issue than Trudeau, and O'Toole would do a better job. [It mostly speaks to how low my personal opinion is of Trudeau is ATM.] 12 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: I expect we'll see some tightening, and then another swing in some direct after the debates. Oh, also, there are apparently three French debates/interviews planned, and only one in English. The English networks in Canada really suck at organizing debates. There needs to be one with just Trudeau, O'Toole, and Singh, with maybe Blanchet for the final fifteen minutes. I won't try and predict where the polls will go, not how they will translate into ACTUAL popular vote (and seat projections). They are all over the place at the moment. IMHO, one debate is enough. And to be honest, IMHO including the fringe parties at all is completely unnecessary. The debates used to be more useful when they were actually debates, rather than the current theatre of avoiding most questions and returning to prepared talking points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: Everyone's views are down to personal bias. I personally think that Singh do a significantly better job tackling almost any issue than Trudeau, and O'Toole would do a better job. [It mostly speaks to how low my personal opinion is of Trudeau is ATM.] I won't try and predict where the polls will go, not how they will translate into ACTUAL popular vote (and seat projections). They are all over the place at the moment. I know personal bias will play a large roll in it but objectively speaking some of those there is no basis for reality in that opinion (like climate change). There are some of those I do think Singh would do a better job on (4, 6 & 7) but there is no guarantee on that either (BC is still horrible for housing). I don't actually dislike Singh, I was for him during the leadership race. I just have a dislike of him saying some of the dumbest things (like saying Trump was right on something that he was horribly wrong on) when trying to 1up on JT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, chakoo said: I know personal bias will play a large roll in iit but objectively speaking some of those there is no basis for reality in that opinion (like climate change). There are some of those I do think Singh would do a better job on (4, 6 & 7) but there is no guarantee on that either (BC is still horrible for housing). I don't actually dislike Singh, I was for him during the leadership race. I just have a dislike of him saying some of the dumbest things (like saying Trump was right on something that he was horribly wrong on) when trying to 1up on JT. There is lots of different opinions on what a good job looks like on climate change. Your opinion on where it should go is probably different than mine. And both of our opinions are probably different than where the average Albertan thinks it should go. There is really no objective way to measure it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Interesting to see Singh on top as preferred PM (in one poll, at least). Not that I think it will affect anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Awkward! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Awkward! If looks could kill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Liberal candidate allowed to run for re-election despite past claims of inappropriate behaviour | CBC News Quote The Liberal Party has given southwestern Ontario candidate Raj Saini the green light to seek re-election for his third term as an MP despite a series of allegations of inappropriate behaviour toward young female staffers that spanned his six years in office, CBC News has learned. Seven sources with knowledge of the claims described four different cases where Saini allegedly made unwanted sexual advances or inappropriate comments. Saini said he has never acted inappropriately toward staff. A former senior staffer who filed a Canadian Human Rights Commission complaint against Saini last year alleging unwelcome advances and harassing behaviour said it's upsetting the party is allowing Saini to campaign again under the Liberal banner in Kitchener Centre. The staffer said her experience in Saini's office contributed to her mental distress, and she eventually tried to take her own life in his office in March 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Should be booted! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Uh oh, Jagmeet got my person email 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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