UPDATE - Liberals win minority government, but everyone's a loser. | Canada Votes |OT| - 44th Federal Election - Sept 20, 2021

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Yeah it's bonkers. Why is Ontario of all places shifting? They also have Atlantic shifting while no one else does (but others have Ontario shifting).

[AbsolutSurgen]

47 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Yeah it's bonkers. Why is Ontario of all places shifting? They also have Atlantic shifting while no one else does (but others have Ontario shifting).

If I were to guess...

[CitizenVectron]

But specifically, why now? Polls still have Trudeau with good favourables in Ontario, personally. I do doubt that the CPC are at 37% plus the PPC at 4%, but I don't doubt that they are up (likely 34-35% range). I could be wrong! Just seems like an outlier based on all the other polls.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

But specifically, why now? Polls still have Trudeau with good favourables in Ontario, personally. I do doubt that the CPC are at 37% plus the PPC at 4%, but I don't doubt that they are up (likely 34-35% range). I could be wrong! Just seems like an outlier based on all the other polls.

If I were to speculate....

1)  People here believed the pandemic was over -- this seems to be changing

2)  Evacuation from Afghanistan -- even the CBC (the official network of the LPC) is eviscerating them

3)  I don't think that Liberal support in the 905 is "strong" (particularly among men) -- but much of it has been based on the dislike of the social conservatism that exudes from the western part of the CPC.

4)  I'm seeing lots of articles talking about how Trudeau criticizes Canada about being a good place to live.  I don't believe that plays well to an audience of immigrants who chose to move here from somewhere else.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

 

 

[chakoo]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If I were to speculate....

1)  People here believed the pandemic was over -- this seems to be changing

2)  Evacuation from Afghanistan -- even the CBC (the official network of the LPC) is eviscerating them

3)  I don't think that Liberal support in the 905 is "strong" (particularly among men) -- but much of it has been based on the dislike of the social conservatism that exudes from the western part of the CPC.

4)  I'm seeing lots of articles talking about how Trudeau criticizes Canada about being a good place to live.  I don't believe that plays well to an audience of immigrants who chose to move here from somewhere else.

 

I don't buy #2 & #4 for the current state. I think it really is 

1) Apathy from people thinking the pandemic is over and they're out enjoying their summer while they can

2) Increased anger from anti-vaxers becoming louder and people angry at them for nothing being done to stop the growing 4th wave they are causing

3) CPC came out strong on the messaging from the first day, not just having a message but being in the news nearly constantly compared to the LPC. LPC seems to be mostly out of sight when you check news websites for updates on the election, you even see more coverage of the NDP than LPC which I think is also reflecting in their poll numbers.

 

[CitizenVectron]

In addition to Chakoo's comments, I think what is really helping the CPC is:

• The disliked Conservative premiers (namely Kenney and Ford) are completely silent (unlike 2019)
• While O'Toole is more moderate than Scheer, the actual bench of ministers is perhaps even crazier than 2019 (Poilievre, Garner, etc). But unlike 2019, they are also silent

So the boogyman of social (and economical) conservatism is still 100% there...but those actors have been told to shut up so that the CPC can attract moderate dissatisfied LPC supporters. And it's working, especially in the 905. Of course if O'Toole wins (and especially with a majority) he is going to govern to the right of where he is campaigning, and then people might be mad. If he wins a minority and relies on NDP support, then he'll probably stay popular.

[AbsolutSurgen]

13 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

In addition to Chakoo's comments, I think what is really helping the CPC is:

• The disliked Conservative premiers (namely Kenney and Ford) are completely silent (unlike 2019)
• While O'Toole is more moderate than Scheer, the actual bench of ministers is perhaps even crazier than 2019 (Poilievre, Garner, etc). But unlike 2019, they are also silent

So the boogyman of social (and economical) conservatism is still 100% there...but those actors have been told to shut up so that the CPC can attract moderate dissatisfied LPC supporters. And it's working, especially in the 905. Of course if O'Toole wins (and especially with a majority) he is going to govern to the right of where he is campaigning, and then people might be mad. If he wins a minority and relies on NDP support, then he'll probably stay popular.

Last poll I saw still had Ford winning re-election in Ontario.  Why do you think he is unpopular? 

[chakoo]

9 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Last poll I saw still had Ford winning re-election in Ontario.  Why do you think he is unpopular? 

 

Umm. You can't be serious on this one. 

 

1) Late reaction to past lockdowns

2) Keeping past lockdowns longer than other provinces

3) Lack of a vaccine passport is pissing off businesses (Big & Small)

4) Anti Vaxers are pissed at the possibility of the above happening

5) Forcing his cabinet and some sectors to require vaccination

6) A rising 4th wave

 

Point #1 also didn't happen till his polling numbers tanked hard even though he was pushing back on the 3rd lockdown just days before he implemented it.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 minute ago, chakoo said:

 

Umm. You can't be serious on this one. 

 

1) Late reaction to past lockdowns

2) Keeping past lockdowns longer than other provinces

3) Lack of a vaccine passport is pissing off businesses (Big & Small)

4) Anti Vaxers are pissed at the possibility of the above happening

5) Forcing his cabinet and some sectors to require vaccination

6) A rising 4th wave

 

Point #1 also didn't happen till his polling numbers tanked hard even though he was pushing back on the 3rd lockdown just days before he implemented it.

I haven't seen a poll that he didn't lead.

[chakoo]

2 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I haven't seen a poll that he didn't lead.

 

Because the ONDP & OLP atm for the most part have been shit, OLP is starting to improve thanks to ONDP miss steps. That still does not take away with him being unpopular. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 minute ago, chakoo said:

 

Because the ONDP & OLP atm for the most part have been shit, OLP is starting to improve thanks to ONDP miss steps. That still does not take away with him being unpopular. 

If O'Toole can become as unpopular as Ford is in Ontario, then he'll probably be the next Prime Minister.

[chakoo]

Just now, AbsolutSurgen said:

If O'Toole can become as unpopular as Ford is in Ontario, then he'll probably be the next Prime Minister.

 

O'Toole is less popular than both in Ontario. I'm struggling a bit to find a more recent abacus graph of his popularity over time. 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

8 minutes ago, chakoo said:

 

O'Toole is less popular than both in Ontario. I'm struggling a bit to find a more recent abacus graph of his popularity over time. 

 

 

My point -- Doug Ford levels of popularity in the 905 would likely be enough for O'Toole to carry Ontario.

[CitizenVectron]

Man, nothing makes sense. Even with a 6% lead, Mainstreet still predicts the CPC would lose:

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Man, nothing makes sense. Even with a 6% lead, Mainstreet still predicts the CPC would lose:

 

 

It's all in Ontario -- it would be interesting to see their model (but I'm not going to pay for access).

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

It's all in Ontario -- it would be interesting to see their model (but I'm not going to pay for access).

 

 

 

 

For sure. But to have a 6% lead nationally and not lead Ontario and have the LPC increasing in Quebec...where is the CPC lead coming from? Are their numbers back to skyrocketing in AB and SK? I 100% believe that the two parties are roughly tied in ON, but I don't believe that the CPC are ahead in the Atlantic provinces. BC? 

[AbsolutSurgen]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

For sure. But to have a 6% lead nationally and not lead Ontario and have the LPC increasing in Quebec...where is the CPC lead coming from? Are their numbers back to skyrocketing in AB and SK? I 100% believe that the two parties are roughly tied in ON, but I don't believe that the CPC are ahead in the Atlantic provinces. BC? 

The 338 model has similar numbers for popular support in Ontario, but vastly different seat projections.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

Popular vote:  CPC 32.8%, LPC 32.5%, NDP 19.7%

Ontario: CPC 35% (51 seats), LPC 36%(57), NDP 21%

 

 

There is a fundamental difference in how these models are coming up with seat projections.

[CitizenVectron]

8 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

Popular vote:  CPC 32.8%, LPC 32.5%, NDP 19.7%

Ontario: CPC 35% (51 seats), LPC 36%(57), NDP 21%

 

 

There is a fundamental difference in how these models are coming up with seat projections.

 

Yeah for sure. I think Mainstreet is using regional polling for their seat model, which is theoretically more accurate, assuming you have good enough numbers.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Definitely too early to call the election one way or the other, obviously (there were various times in 2015 when it was obvious that Harper was going to remain with a minority, that Mulcair was going to be the first NDP PM, and that Trudeau was going to win), but I think it's definitely correct to say that it's Trudeau's last election, one way or another. If, through the power of vote distribution, Trudeau can hold onto a small minority (with help from the NDP, and/or BQ as well), he will surely be pushed out quickly to give enough time for a LPC leadership race before another election.

 

Here is the nightmare scenario, though. Something like:

 

CPC - 142

LPC - 140

NDP - 27

BQ - 27

Green - 2

 

Where neither the CPC nor LPC can form government without the help of at least two third parties. Who forms power? Imagine the negotiations behind the scenes if Trudeau loses narrowly but thinks he can make an agreement to govern. NDP would lean with siding with the Liberals over CPC, I think, but the BQ could go for either, given the right promises for Quebec.

 

EDIT - Also, though I think it's only a small chance at this point (since Trudeau, even with his negatives, is no Ignatieff), it is remotely possible that the NDP could eclipse the LPC in popular vote. I don't think this would actually put the NDP ahead in seat count though (since 2011 was unique in that the increase was heavily concentrated in Quebec, and this time it would likely be more spread out, especially in the west). Interesting to consider, though. I do wish our elections were true three-way races.

[CitizenVectron]

 

We are definitely in the age of minority governments.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

Canadians have baffled me for a while.  Jagmeet is the anti-Trudeau -- he is energetic, charismatic, intelligent and displays excellent leadership qualities (unfortunately I disagree with almost all of his policies).  It looks like these attributes are finally starting to result in positive numbers in the polls.

[AbsolutSurgen]

6 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Definitely too early to call the election one way or the other,

I expect this election to go down to the wire.  With Covid, it will probably take several days for us to know the results.

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

 

Rather than promote his record, the mouth-pieces of Trudeau choose to go back to trying to stoke fear in the electorate.

The one good thing that might come from this incomprehensibly-stupid election is that we might finally be rid of Trudeau.  I REALLY hope we have someone better as a candidate for PM (and no, O'Toole BARELY counts as better than Trudeau).

[CitizenVectron]

If the CPC win, I really hope they realize it's because of two things (people tired of Trudeau, but more importantly, people desperate about housing prices), and not about social issues or MAGA beliefs.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

39 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

If the CPC win, I really hope they realize it's because of two things (people tired of Trudeau, but more importantly, people desperate about housing prices), and not about social issues or MAGA beliefs.

"Canadians have rejected Trudeau's liberalism, now is it time for O'Toole to make Canada Great Again? Some lessons for Americans going into the midterms"

By the New York Times editorial board

[AbsolutSurgen]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

I keep expecting the tide to turn back. 
Maybe I was just fundamentally wrong in how this election was going to go. 

[chakoo]

11 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I keep expecting the tide to turn back. 
Maybe I was just fundamentally wrong in how this election was going to go. 

 

I'm still wondering what their game plan is. It feels like they're waiting till the debates to do an ad blits, which could all just be my wishful thinking. It doesn't really make sense they let the CPC dominate the most out of the gate with messaging and mostly stay pretty quite on everything.

 

With that said, the CPC gave them a nice gift over the heckler issue but they oddly seem not be exploiting it. 

[CitizenVectron]

I don't expect the final vote to be 38 to 28, but I also don't expect the Liberals to end up with more than 32. Tough to say what swings we will see. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

It's a real problem, especially after it was revealed that CPC and ON PC staffers and volunteers were in these groups and possibly helping to organize them. O'Toole has of course said these people aren't welcome in the party...but he's also refusing to denounce anti-vaxxer candidates. It's all wink-and-nod to these crazies.