Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

[CitizenVectron]

Ukraine is now pushing towards Izyum?!

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Monsters

 

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Uaarkson]

2 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

 

Man. It’s nuts how fast those rockets move once they clear the firing zone.

[CayceG]

Ukraine won Eurovision. 

 

 

[CayceG]

Everyone needs to watch this combat footage from a Ukrainian foxhole. This is insane. I can't fathom being in this. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini of the West's "intelligence briefing" for Days 77-79:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 14 May 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the

 

 

Quote

 

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers. The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense as satellite images show (destroyed) Russian vehicles tightly bunched up at both ends of the (destroyed) bridge, clearly allowing Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes. The milbloggers who have hitherto been cheering on the Russian military criticized Russian armed forces leadership for failing to learn from experience in the war. They also expressed the concern that the constant pushing of Russia’s propaganda lines was making it hard for them to understand what was actually going on.

 

The effects of this change in tone and discourse by these milbloggers are uncertain but could be potent. People living under tightly censored regimes often trust individuals who seem to be independent of but generally aligned with the government more than the government line (even more than do citizens of democratic societies). The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders (at least).

 

The destruction of the motorized rifle elements may also severely disrupt Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north. Russian troops made no attempts to advance in that area in the last 24 hours.

 

Russian forces continued operations to set conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south, however, advancing on the town of Zolote, roughly 30 km south of Severodonetsk. Russian troops likely seek to secure the highway north from Zolote to Severodonetsk for their advance, but they may also seek to cut the last highway linking Severodonetsk with the rest of Ukraine via Bakhmut. They could try to strike northwest across the country from their current positions to cut that highway closer to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The Russians are extremely unlikely to be able to take Bakhmut but they may be able to cut or render unusable the highway from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk if they can advance far enough along either of these possible routes.

 

Ukrainian forces will likely conduct counteroffensive operations to dislodge the Russians from around Izyum, according to Ukrainian officials. We have previously noted that Russian artillery fire directed to the west from around Izyum was more likely intended to disrupt such a counter-offensive than to set conditions for a Russian attack.

 

Russian forces continued their withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast but will likely seek to hold a line east of Vovchansk to secure the ground line of communication (GLOC) running from Belgorod through Vovchansk to Izyum. The terrain in this area generally favors the defender, and the Russians have other GLOCs with which to supply Izyum, so the Ukrainians may not try to advance much farther to the east at this time.

 

Ukrainian defenders continued to fight in the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol despite horrific conditions and continued Russian attacks. The Ukrainian defense of Azovstal is still tying down Russian combat forces and inflicting casualties.

 

Key Takeaways

• Catastrophic Russian losses in a failed river crossing and the military incompetence displayed in that crossing have shaken the confidence of some prominent Russian milbloggers.
• Russian forces continue shaping operations for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south even though those losses have at least temporarily disrupted their efforts from the north.
• Ukrainian forces announced that they will conduct a counteroffensive around Izyum.
• Russian forces continued to withdraw from northern Kharkiv Oblast, but will likely seek to hold a line defending their ground lines of communication from Belgorod via Vovchansk to Izyum.

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[mclumber1]

It's simply amazing that Ukraine still has an air force at this point.  Have they been able to fly any donated MiGs yet?

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

Ukraine is now aiming to restore its 1991 borders.

[mclumber1]

Since Russia considers Crimea 100% Russian territory, Ukrainian troops going onto the island would definitely be provocative.  Justifiable?  Yes.  

[CitizenVectron]

More Ukrainian bombers. 

 

 

[CayceG]

Go after the Donbas, sure, but Ukraine just realistically will not be going any further than the Crimean isthmus. 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

9 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

 

 

Sure thing, Moscow - knock yourself out!

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 15 May 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the

 

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Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the Russian military command likely understands that it will not be able to seize Donetsk Oblast but believes that it has the capacity to reach the administrative borders of Luhansk Oblast.[1] His observations are generally consistent with our analysis. The Russian military command will likely prioritize the Battle of Severodonetsk going forward, with some efforts dedicated to disrupting Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in eastern Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are continuing a coordinated effort to seize Severodonetsk from the north and the south, which would result in a shallower encirclement of Ukrainian troops than originally expected. The failed Russian attempts to cross the Siverskyi Donets River near Kreminna may shift Russian encirclement operations further east, closer to Severodonetsk via Rubizhne, rather than conducting a wider encirclement along multiple axes. Russian forces have also likely been scaling down advances to Slovyansk from Izyum, possibly due to the slow pace of the offensive operation there.

 

Russian forces have likely run out of combat-ready reservists, forcing the Russian military command to amalgamate soldiers from many different elements, including private military companies and proxy militias, into ostensibly regular army units and naval infantry. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that approximately 2,500 Russian reservists are training in Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov oblasts to reinforce Russian offensive operations in Ukraine. That number of reservists is unlikely to generate enough force to replenish Russian units that have reportedly lost up to 20 percent of staffing in some areas—to say nothing of the battalion tactical group that was largely destroyed recently while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River.[2] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate stated that Russian forces are conducting covert mobilization and creating new units with newly mobilized personnel who likely have insufficient training to be effective and little motivation to fight.[3] Russian forces also deployed new conscripts from occupied settlements in Donetsk and

Luhansk oblasts to maintain an offensive around Kharkiv City, likely due to the lack of Russian reserves.[4]

 

Russian private military companies are reportedly forming combined units with airborne elements due to significant losses in manpower.[5] Denaturing elite airborne units with mercenaries is shocking, and would be the clearest indication yet that Russia has exhausted its available combat-ready manpower reserves. The Russian 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade is reportedly receiving personnel from other Black Sea Fleet units, including navy ship crewmembers.[6] Newly formed or regrouped units are unlikely to be effective in combat.

 

Russian forces are likely fortifying occupied settlements in southern Ukraine, indicating that the Russians are seeking to establish permanent control in the region. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces began digging trenches and building concrete revetments in unspecified areas of Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblast, near Melitopol, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[7]

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces will likely prioritize winning the Battle of Severodonetsk over reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces did not advance in the Slovyansk direction due to unsuccessful offensive operations in the Izyum area. Ukrainian aviation continues to operate north and east of Izyum.
• Russian forces continued to launch artillery, air, and naval assaults on the Azovstal Steel Plant, but Mariupol defenders maintained their positions.
• Russian forces are fortifying occupied settlements along the southern axis, indicative of Russian objectives for permanent control of the area.

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The Swedish government just officially announced that it is applying for NATO membership, one day after the Finnish government made its own NATO membership application announcement.

[CayceG]

Ukraine's air force is still up. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

24 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

ISW analysis for 15 May 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces have likely abandoned the objective of completing a large-scale encirclement of Ukrainian units from Donetsk City to Izyum in favor of completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that the

 

 

 

 

The slowly shrinking goals of the Russian campaign:

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Ukrainian soldier operating M777:

 

[CitizenVectron]

2 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The Swedish government just officially announced that it is applying for NATO membership, one day after the Finnish government made its own NATO membership application announcement.

 

[CayceG]

Turkey will vote against Sweden and Finland being admitted to NATO. 

 

NATO admissions have to be voted on unanimously by all members. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Word from Russian milsec groups that Ukraine has crossed the Donets river east of Kharkiv:

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

2 minutes ago, CayceG said:

Turkey will vote against Sweden and Finland being admitted to NATO. 

 

NATO admissions have to be voted on unanimously by all members. 

 

 

 

 

 

How does one boot a country out? As someone said on resetera, Turkey is the Joe Manchin of NATO. I expect them to cave, however, after getting whatever they want out of this.

[CayceG]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

How does one boot a country out?

 

Turkey controls the Bosporus and kicking them out would be a bigger boon to Russia than the loss they'd suffer with admitting Finland/Sweden.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

There's gonna be a bunch of haggling with Erdogan to find out what will be the price to get him to "yes", probably involving F-35s and a crackdown on Kurdish separatist organizations based in Sweden and Finland.

[CayceG]

9 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

How does one boot a country out? As someone said on resetera, Turkey is the Joe Manchin of NATO. I expect them to cave, however, after getting whatever they want out of this.

 

 

 

Actually, this might be a ploy by Erdogan to make his vote contingent on getting the F-35s we've previously denied them.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

36 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

There's gonna be a bunch of haggling with Erdogan to find out what will be the price to get him to "yes", probably involving F-35s and a crackdown on Kurdish separatist organizations based in Sweden and Finland.

I’d imagine it’s more to do with the latter

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

From The Guardian:

 

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Russia says a ceasefire has been reached with the last-stand Ukrainian troops at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, in order to evacuate the wounded, although there has been no confirmation of this from Ukrainian officials, Agence France-Presse reports.

 

Russia’s defence ministry said moments ago that an agreement has been reached to evacuate injured soldiers from plant.

 

"An agreement was reached with representatives of the Ukrainian military blocked at Azovstal in Mariupol to evacuate the wounded," the ministry said.

 

It added that a “regime of silence” was introduced for the duration of the evacuation and that the Ukrainian soldiers would be taken to a hospital in the nearby town of Novoazovsk.

There was no immediate confirmation from Ukrainian officials.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

It genuinely appears that the Siege of the Azovstal Steelworks plant in Mariupol has ended.

 

 

 

From The Guardian:

 

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The Ukrainian unit holed up beneath the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol said on Monday its garrison was fulfilling orders to save the lives of troops, an apparent indication that the long siege there was coming to an end, Reuters reports.

 

"In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison is implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people," the Azov Regiment said in a social media post.

 

Here’s a little more from the accompanying video that one of the unit’s senior commanders, Denys Prokopenko, posted.

 

"The main thing is to realise all the risks, is there a plan B, are you fully committed to that plan which must allow for fulfilling the assigned tasks and preserve the lives and health of personnel?  This is the highest level of overseeing troops. All the more so when your decision is endorsed by the highest military command."

 

 

 

[Jason]

25 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

 

 

those are some strong neanderthal genes

[CitizenVectron]

At this point the marines and Azov soldiers still inside Azov (or recently evacuated, perhaps) have no real reason to stay if they can get out alive. Their surrender/evacuation is not going to free up a significant number of Russian troops, and they aren't holding important land—it's really a courageous last stand for honour, now. That's not to diminish the sort of thing they are doing on national consciousness (and they will certainly be remembered as heroes in Ukraine, either way), but better to save the lives of the troops still there (especially the actual Ukrainian marines).