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Россия invades Україна


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ISW analysis for 12 May 2022:

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Russian forces likely control almost all of Rubizhne as of

 

 

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Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.  Russian forces likely control almost all of Rubizhne as of May 12 and have likely seized the town of Voevodivka, north of Severdonetsk.[1]  They will likely launch a ground offensive on or around Severodonetsk in the coming days.  The relative success of Russian operations in this area combined with their failure to advance from Izyum and the notable decline in the energy of that attempted advance suggest that they may be giving up on the Izyum axis.  Reports that Russian forces in Popasna are advancing north, toward Severodonetsk-Lysychansk, rather than east toward the Slovyansk-Debaltseve highway, support this hypothesis.

 

It is unclear if Russian forces can encircle, let alone capture, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk even if they focus their efforts on that much-reduced objective.  Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war, and these areas are unlikely to be different. Continued and expanding reports of demoralization and refusals to fight among Russian units suggest that the effective combat power of Russian troops in the east continues to be low and may drop further.  If the Russians abandon efforts to advance from Izyum, moreover, Ukrainian forces would be able to concentrate their efforts on defending Severodonetsk-Lysychansk or, in the worst case, breaking a Russian encirclement before those settlements fall.

 

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv is also forcing the Russian command to make hard choices, as it was likely intended to do.  The UK Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces pulled back from Kharkiv have been sent toward Rubizhne and Severodonetsk but at the cost of ceding ground in Kharkiv from which the Russians had been shelling the city.[2]  The counteroffensive is also forcing Russian units still near the city to focus their bombardment on the attacking Ukrainian troops rather than continuing their attacks on the city itself.  The Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv is starting to look very similar to the counteroffensive that ultimately drove Russian troops away from Kyiv and out of western Ukraine entirely, although it is too soon to tell if the Russians will make a similar decision here.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces made marginal gains to the north of Severodonetsk and have likely captured Rubizhne and Voevodivka.
  • Russian forces fired intensively on Ukrainian positions in northern Kharkiv to stop the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv City. The artillery focus on Ukrainian positions has likely diverted the Russian artillery that remains in range of Kharkiv to the more urgent task of stopping the Ukrainian advance.
  • Russian forces are strengthening their position on Snake Island in an effort to block Ukrainian maritime communications and capabilities in the northwestern Black Sea on the approaches to Odesa.

 

 

 

DraftUkraineCoTMay12,2022.png

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    I have an idea:  admit Sweden and Finland to NATO and throw out Turkey. PROBLEM SOLVED!

     

    107021407-1645883917268-107021407-164588
    WWW.CNBC.COM

    NATO ascension for a new member state requires consensus approval from all existing members.

     

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    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has thrown Sweden and Finland’s potential NATO membership into doubt, just as both countries are on the cusp of applying to join the alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

     

    “We are following the developments regarding Sweden and Finland, but we don’t hold positive views,” Erdogan told press in Istanbul on Friday.

     

    NATO ascension for a new member state requires consensus approval from all existing members. Turkey joined NATO in 1952, and has the second-largest military in the 30-member alliance after the United States. Erdogan referenced the Nordic countries’ hosting of members of the Kurdish Workers’ Party, or PKK, which Turkey considers a terrorist group.

     

    The countries are “home to many terrorist organizations,” Erdogan claimed. He also referenced NATO’s acceptance of Greece as a member in 1952 as a mistake. Turkey and Greece are longtime rivals and have fought in conflicts against one another even as NATO members.

     

     

    • True 2
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    From everything I have seen, the population of Ukraine (and therefore politicians) have acquired the maximalist position of no concessions to Russia. On Feb 24 it would have been conceivable for Ukraine to allow Russia to keep DNR/LNR/Crimea, but I don't think it is now, they are going to keep fighting and try to take back their 1991 borders. Maybe leave Crimea.

     

     

    • Ukraine 3
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    Gamer nerds are winning the war for Ukraine:

     

     

    tl;dw:

     

    Younger, non-military people (working with the military) go in with small civilian drones and scout out locations for a week or so from the bush. They make a map (using MS Paint, effectively) and provide it to the larger military drone teams. The military drones are launched and loiter while providing targeting info for artillery a dozen KM away, who then destroy the Russian positions.

     

    The drones are so vital to Ukraine's efforts that each platoon now has a dedicated drone team. I expect this to be the future of all modern militaries. Interestingly, Ukraine is mostly using Chinese drones that the Russians are actually able to track, so the teams are getting wiser in how they deploy them so as not to be instantly targeted. 

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    Regarding the failed Siversky Donets river crossing attempt by the Russians:

     

    Russians tried to cross river three times - Luhansk governor

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    Russian troops have made three unsuccessful attempts to build bridges across the Siversky Donets river in eastern Ukraine, says the governor of the Luhansk region.

     

    Ukrainian defenders beat back the Russians each time they tried to put down pontoon bridges - destroying around 70 units of heavy weaponry and equipment over three days, said Serhiy Haidai.

     

    He said his side had also thwarted Russian efforts to disguise their operations.

     

    “We have eliminated Russian speedboats and helicopters which they used to cover their attempts [to build bridges],” he told the BBC.

     

    With their efforts, Russian troops were attempting to encircle the towns of Lysychansk, Severodonetsk and Hirske, and cut off Ukrainian forces, said Haidai.

     

    The governor described the situation in the wider Luhansk region as “very complicated”, especially when it came to evacuating civilians.

     

    “There is shelling and bombing in all cities and villages."

     

    Russia has not commented on the failed river crossings. UK defence intelligence says a Russian battalion lost almost all its armoured vehicles in the failed attempts to cross the river.

     

     

     

    Russian losses during bungled crossing overstated - security expert

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    We're continuing to look into that story of a bungled crossing of the Siversky Donets river by Russian troops - who came under fire from Ukrainian defenders.

     

    Security expert and former UK serviceman Justin Crump says the Russian bridging effort “failed spectacularly”. But he says Ukraine’s claim to have wiped out more than 1,000 men is probably overstated.

     

    Speaking to the BBC, the CEO of security consultancy Sibylline Ltd estimates that more like 140-180 Russians were killed.

     

    He explains that 70 or 80 vehicles reportedly destroyed in the Ukrainian attack were unlikely to have been filled with infantrymen – but were instead being used to scope out the area and lay down pontoon bridges.

     

    This particular operation is evidence of Moscow’s tactic of “reconnaissance by fire”, he explains – which means “driving forwards till someone shoots at you”.

     

    The Kremlin’s troops appear to have been attempting to cut off the Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk - but Crump acknowledges there is a lot of uncertainty around the facts.

     

    He suggests the Russian battalion was picked off over a period of days during the last week - with the Ukrainians using precision artillery. However, the Russians may have destroyed some of their own vehicles to deny their enemy any equipment.

     

    The Siversky Donets river is of huge strategic value to both sides, Crump explains. Russia controls bridging points at Izyum and further downstream – while Ukraine holds a middle stretch.

     

    But heavy losses here do not necessarily mean that Russians have not managed crossings nearby, Crump says - citing evidence of fighting on the Ukrainian-held south/west side of the river.

     

    What’s more, he says, the Russians remain “determined” to use such tactics in order to encircle the likes of Severodonetsk and steadily gain ground in the east.

     

    “To some extent, they’re throwing corpses into the river until they can walk across on corpses,” he says.

     

    Russia has not yet commented on the alleged losses.

     

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    4 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

    Regarding the failed Siversky Donets river crossing attempt by the Russians:

     

    Russians tried to cross river three times - Luhansk governor

     

     

    Russian losses during bungled crossing overstated - security expert

     

    Yeah the claims of 1,500+ dead in those crossings is clearly propaganda. However, 70+ vehicles destroyed likely means hundreds. Despite this, the Russians have been making progress in that area in general, albeit at a great cost. The question is, can Ukraine keep them to a slow pace long enough for the main Ukrainian thrust to the north to pull behind the Russians?

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    1000.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
    WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

    Vadim Shysimarin accused of killing civilian on 28 February while fighting in Sumy region in north-east Ukraine

     

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    A Russian soldier has appeared in court accused of murdering an unarmed man on a bicycle, at the start of the first war crime trial in Ukraine since Vladimir Putin invaded the country.

     

    Vadim Shysimarin, a commander of the Kantemirovskaya tank division, arrived at Kyiv’s small district court No 3 in a grey and blue tracksuit and handcuffs for a preliminary hearing.

     

    The 21-year-old is charged with premeditated murder of a 62-year-old man who was not named in court. Shysimarin is being held in Ukrainian custody. The case is scheduled to resume on Wednesday.

     

    Shysimarin’s lawyer said his client had confessed to killing the victim but had not yet discussed whether to plead guilty.

     

    The defendant, who was helped by a Russian interpreter to follow the hearing, spoke briefly to confirm his name and that he understood the charges against him. “Yes, I understand,” he said.

     

    It is alleged that Shysimarin had been fighting in the Sumy region in north-east Ukraine when he killed a civilian on 28 February in the village of Chupakhivka.

     

     

     

    _124725870_mediaitem124726946.jpg
    WWW.BBC.COM

    In the first such trial of the war, the defendant, 21, is accused of killing an unarmed civilian.

     

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    Ukraine has started its first war crimes trial since the beginning of Russia's invasion, with a 21-year-old soldier appearing in the dock accused of killing an unarmed civilian.

     

    Vadim Shishimarin appeared at a preliminary hearing on Friday. He faces life in prison if convicted.

     

    Ukraine says it has identified thousands of potential war crimes committed by Russia.

     

    Russia has denied targeting civilians and made no comment on the trial.

     

    Prosecutors say Mr Shishimarin was driving in a stolen vehicle with other soldiers in the north-eastern Sumy region when they encountered a 62-year-old cyclist using a phone.

     

    He was ordered to shoot the civilian to stop them from telling Ukrainian defenders about their location, according to the prosecutors.

     

     

    • Ukraine 1
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    Ukrainian refugees have started to arrive in Canada in earnest, mostly through Poland. I think three jets this week, spreading them across the country. In my city about 30 families have arrived, and the local community has been fantastic, providing them places to stay, getting them jobs, etc. So far I haven't been contacted to host anyone, so that hopefully means there are enough Ukrainian-speaking households available as the primary hosts.

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    Ukraine predicts victory:

     

    skynews-russian-tank-destroyed_5768658.j
    NEWS.SKY.COM

    Major General Kyrylo Budanov spoke exclusively to Sky News and predicted the war will reach a turning point in August. He correctly predicted when Russia would invade earlier this year.

     

     

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    Ukraine's head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, that it will reach a turning point by mid-August and be over by the end of the year.

    It is the most precise and optimistic prediction by a senior Ukrainian official so far.

     

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    "The breaking point will be in the second part of August.

    "Most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year.

    "As a result, we will renew Ukrainian power in all our territories that we have lost including Donbas and the Crimea."

     

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    "We know everything about our enemy. We know about their plans almost as they're being made." 

    "We have been fighting Russia for eight years and we can say that this highly publicised Russian power is a myth. It is not as powerful as this. It is a horde of people with weapons."

     

    He goes on to say that he is aware of a coup being formed in the background of Russia, and that Putin has cancer. Both could be/are likely psyops. 

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    6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

    Ukraine predicts victory:

     

    skynews-russian-tank-destroyed_5768658.j
    NEWS.SKY.COM

    Major General Kyrylo Budanov spoke exclusively to Sky News and predicted the war will reach a turning point in August. He correctly predicted when Russia would invade earlier this year.

     

    That would be great, but how many put hopes on the Great War ending by Christmas 1914? 

    • Halal 1
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    ISW analysis for 13 May 2022:

     

    WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

    The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the limited availability of reinforcements. Russian units have generally not attempted to hold ground against

     

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    The Russian military has likely decided to withdraw fully from its positions around Kharkiv City in the face of Ukrainian counteroffensives and the limited availability of reinforcements. Russian units have generally not attempted to hold ground against counterattacking Ukrainian forces over the past several days, with a few exceptions. Reports from Western officials and a video from an officer of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) indicate that Moscow is focused on conducting an orderly withdrawal and prioritizing getting Russians back home before allowing proxy forces to enter Russia rather than trying to hold its positions near the city.

     

    Ukraine thus appears to have won the Battle of Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces prevented Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces attempting to seize Kyiv. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt at least the westernmost of the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) between Belgorod and Russian forces concentrated around Izyum, although Russia is using several GLOCs, including some further away from current Ukrainian positions than any Ukrainian counteroffensive is likely to reach soon. The terrain east of current Ukrainian positions may also favor the Russians attempting to defend their GLOCs, as large water features canalize movement and create chokepoints that the Ukrainians would have to breakthrough.

     

    Russian troops continued efforts to advance all along the periphery of the Izyum-Donetsk city salient but made little progress. Russian forces attempted a ground offensive from Izyum that made no progress. We had previously hypothesized that Russia might give up on attempts to advance from Izyum, but the Russians have either not made such a decision or have not fully committed to it yet.[1] Small-scale and unsuccessful attacks on the southern end of the salient near Donetsk City continued but made no real progress.

     

    The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north and from the south. Russian troops attacking from Popasna to the north made no significant progress in the last 24 hours. Russian forces coming north-to-south have failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and taken devastating losses in their attempts. The Russians may not have enough additional fresh combat power to offset those losses and continue the offensive on a large enough scale to complete the encirclement, although they will likely continue to try to do so.

     

    The Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol continue to fight despite the odds, although Russian attackers appear to have penetrated into the Azovstal facility.

     

    Key Takeaways

    • Ukraine has likely won the Battle of Kharkiv. Russian forces continued to withdraw from the northern settlements around Kharkiv City. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum.
    • Ukrainian forces have likely disrupted the Russian attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in force, undermining Russian efforts to mass troops in northern Donbas and complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
    • Russian forces have likely secured the highway near the western entrance to the Azovstal Steel Plant but fighting for the facility continues.
    • Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are likely attempting to reach artillery range outside Zaporizhia City.
    • Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to regain control of Snake Island off the Romanian coast or at least disrupt Russia’s ability to use it.

     

       

      DraftUkraineCoTMay13,2022_0.png

       

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      2 hours ago, CayceG said:

       

       

       

      That missile is actually called "Yars." Not Satan.

       

      FAKE NEWS!


      I know you’re joking, but 

      09899713.jpg?quality=75&width=1200&auto=
      WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

      The Putin ally said it is ‘absolutely legitimate’ for Russia to question the existence of Finland

      This is what they’re blessing, right?

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      1 hour ago, Spork3245 said:


      I know you’re joking, but 

      09899713.jpg?quality=75&width=1200&auto=
      WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

      The Putin ally said it is ‘absolutely legitimate’ for Russia to question the existence of Finland

      This is what they’re blessing, right?

       

       

      No, I'm not joking. The "Satan-II" isn't road mobile. The missile they're blessing in the photo is the Yars, which is not the Satan-II. 

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