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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (22 Mar 2024) - Poland: If America is an unreliable ally, then nations must begin building their own nuclear weapons for deterrence


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ISW analysis for 08 May 2022:

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

Russian forces did not make any significant advances on any axis of advance on May 8. The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv City has likely forced Russian troops to redeploy to Kharkiv instead of reinforcing stalled Russian offensive

 

 

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Russian forces did not make any significant advances on any axis of advance on May 8. The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv City has likely forced Russian troops to redeploy to Kharkiv instead of reinforcing stalled Russian offensive operations elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are continuing their attempt to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts but have not made substantial territorial gains since securing Popasna on May 7.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces are likely amassing in Belgorod to reinforce Russian efforts in northern Kharkiv to prevent the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive from pushing closer to the Ukraine-Russia border.
  • Russian forces near Izyum focused on regrouping, replenishing, and reconnoitering Ukrainian positions in order to continue advances to the southwest and southeast of Izyum.
  • Russian forces continued their ground attacks to drive to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts but did not make any territorial gains
  • Russian troops continued to assault the Azovstal Steel Plant and advanced efforts to economically integrate occupied Mariupol into the wider Russian economy.
  • Russian troops may be preparing for a renewed offensive on the Southern Axis but are unlikely to be successful in this endeavor.  

 

 

 

DraftUkraineCoTMay08,2022.png

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ISW analysis for "Victory Day 2022":

 

 
WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization” and that members of the private military company Wagner

 

 

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Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization” and that members of the private military company Wagner Group “urgently” requested hundreds of thousands of additional troops to reinforce Russian efforts in Donbas.[1] The official noted that Russia currently has 97 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, but that BTGs have been moving in and out of Ukraine to refit and resupply, suggesting that Russian troops continue to sustain substantial damage in combat.[2] ISW has previously assessed that most Russian BTGs are heavily degraded and counting BTGs is not a useful metric of Russian combat power.[3] The Main Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed that under-trained, ill-equipped Russian conscripts are still being sent into active combat despite the Kremlin denying this practice.[4] A prisoner of war from the BARS-7 detachment of the Wagner Group claimed that a ”covert mobilization” is underway in Russian to send conscripts to clean damage caused by combat in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.[5]

 

Russian troops in Ukraine continue to display low morale and poor discipline as fighting in many areas has stalled out against Ukrainian resistance. A senior US defense official claimed that Russian troops in Donbas are failing to obey orders from top generals.[6] Russian forces deployed to the Zaporizhzhia area reportedly are experiencing very low morale and psychological conditions, complain about the ineffectiveness of operations in the area, frequently abuse alcohol, and shoot at their own vehicles in order to avoid going to the frontline.[7] This is consistent with reports made by the Ukrainian General Staff that the extent of Russian losses is having widespread impacts on the willingness of Russian troops to engage in offensive operations.[8]

 

Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy “People’s Republics.” The Kherson occupation Deputy Chairman of Military Civil Administration Kirill Stremousov stated on May 9 that the Kherson region intends to become part of Russia and that Kherson authorities do not intend to hold a referendum to create an independent republic.[9] Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian occupation authorities are intensifying reconnaissance measures and increasing checkpoints and patrols in occupied areas in order to prepare to integrate these regions directly into Russia.[10] Motuzyanyk noted that Russian and Crimean groups have been arriving to occupied regions to intensify propaganda measures to prepare for integration. ISW will publish our assessment of the Kremlin’s most likely course of actions towards their occupied territories in Ukraine in the coming days.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances to the southeast or southwest of Izyum on May 9 but are likely attempting to concentrate the forces necessary to resume offensive operations in the coming days.
  • Russian forces made marginal gains around Severodonetsk in the past 24 hours.
  • Russian forces are likely continuing to amass troops in Belgorod Oblast to stop Ukrainian counterattacks around Kharkiv City from reaching the Ukrainian-Russian border.
  • Russian units in Zaporizhia Oblast are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol.
  • The Kremlin continues to face severe force mobilization challenges, and ongoing “covert mobilization” efforts are unlikely to generate substantial combat power.
  • Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to integrate occupied Ukrainian territories directly into Russia, as opposed to creating proxy “People’s Republics.”

     

    DraftUkraineCoTMay9,2022_0.png

     

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    2 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:
    627a2295a6a8800018281b3c?width=1200&form
    WWW.BUSINESSINSIDER.COM

    As the invasion of Ukraine drags on, evidence is emerging that much of Russia's military equipment is outdated and often ineffective.

     

     

    This was something that came out around the beginning of the war. A photo of a cockpit of a Russian plane just had a straight-up Garmin unit sitting there.

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    12 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

    There's no way that those things could update fast enough for the speeds fighter planes fly at right?

     

    No, they can. Garmin makes commercial GPS to put in personal planes. That's what these are. They were seen in Syria prior to this as well.

    • Shocked 1
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    27 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

    Well I'll be.

     

    22 minutes ago, Jason said:

    The real question is, is GLONASS in as much disarray as the rest of their military if they're using GPS instead of GLONASS?

     

     

    So these things go hand in hand. 

     

    They did it in Syria because I assume that GLONASS just didn't have coverage in the Middle East (since GLONASS is Russian). It made sense. Use the global GPS system you have available for the area you're operating in. 

     

    I just assumed that GLONASS would have covered Ukraine. Maybe it doesn't. Or it could be that the Garmins are used as a backup to GLONASS as a redundant system.

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    1 minute ago, CayceG said:

     

     

     

    So these things go hand in hand. 

     

    They did it in Syria because I assume that GLONASS just didn't have coverage in the Middle East (since GLONASS is Russian). It made sense. Use the global GPS system you have available for the area you're operating in. 

     

    I just assumed that GLONASS would have covered Ukraine. Maybe it doesn't. Or it could be that the Garmins are used as a backup to GLONASS as a redundant system.

    Quote

    By 2010, GLONASS had achieved full coverage of Russia's territory and in October 2011 the full orbital constellation of 24 satellites was restored, enabling full global coverage.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLONASS

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    7 minutes ago, CayceG said:

    Then it's likely for redundancy. 

     

    It's just surprising to see them depending on something American at all. Like, I can't imagine the US military even using Galileo as a backup, and the EU is an ally. 

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