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Россия invades Україна


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Russian troops have been massing on the eastern (Russia) and southern (Crimean) border of Ukraine for a few weeks. My guess is they will invade when the "rebels" in eastern Ukraine ask for independence to be recognized, and Ukraine refuses. The real reason is that Russia only gives a shit about Crimea, and Ukraine blocked off the main water supply, so Russia will invade to secure access to the river/dam that supplies it.

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I don't think they're about to invade. I think it's more putting Ukraine in a position to where they absolutely cannot act, lest they be totally destroyed like Georgia was in 2008. 

 

 

Now, that doesn't mean that this will cool the situation down. This actually INCREASES the likelihood of some exchange of fire resulting in major combat erupting... like Georgia in 2008. 

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7 minutes ago, CayceG said:

I don't think they're about to invade. I think it's more putting Ukraine in a position to where they absolutely cannot act, lest they be totally destroyed like Georgia was in 2008. 

 

 

Now, that doesn't mean that this will cool the situation down. This actually INCREASES the likelihood of some exchange of fire resulting in major combat erupting... like Georgia in 2008. 

 

Georgia was a pushover in comparison to Ukraine though right? 

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37 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

Georgia was a pushover in comparison to Ukraine though right? 

 

Maybe. Ukraine doesn't have much more in the way of quality when it comes to their fighting force. The scale of any potential fighting would have more impact. 

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  • 7 months later...

The scale of the new Russian military buildup on both its own border with Ukraine and the Belarus border with Ukraine is pretty impressive.

 

211124111137-01-putin-sochi-meeting-1124
WWW.CNN.COM

Russian forces have capabilities in place along the Ukraine border to carry out a swift and immediate invasion, including erecting supply lines such as medical units and fuel that could sustain a drawn-out conflict, should Moscow choose to invade, two sources familiar with the latest intelligence assessments told CNN.

 

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Just now, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

they shoudn't be in nato tho

 

No argument from me there!  In fact, NONE of the former Soviet states should be part of NATO (sorry about that, Baltics)

 

NATO should really have disbanded after December 25, 1991 and collective European security passed to the OSCE:

 

 

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1 minute ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

In fact, NONE of the former Warsaw Pact states should be in NATO: not Poland, not Hungary, not Czechia, not Slovakia, not Romania, not Bulgaria.

 

Yes, I'm well aware that's my anti-Slav/Magyar/Romanian bias talking, but I don't give a shit :p

 

should kick out east germany while we're at it, somehow

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Just now, CitizenVectron said:

If Russia invades then I don't expect a total invasion. I would think they will try to create a land bridge between Russia and Crimea, and to secure the watershed that feeds into Crimea (which Ukraine has blocked, creating a water shortage).

 

The "invasion" will be restricted the eastern oblasts of Ukraine with no attempt to occupy western Ukraine or Kyiv.

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I've been seeing and hearing so many stories in the western (US, UK, German) press about how Russia is absolutely ready to invade and could at any moment. 

 

I mean, look at this:

 

 

 

The former prime minister of Sweden and part of the current international NatSec Blob is retweeting what might well be a fucking war plan from German tabloid Bild.

 

I have always been wary of Russia involving itself in its neighbors. From Georgia in 2008 to Crimea/Donbas in 2014, to now... I understand where the fear comes from. But at this point, it seems as if the western press is inflating this so much so beyond the actual threat. It seems like most of these stories of warning are coming out of WW3 fantasies rather than interpretations of Russian motives and past actions. 

 

My leftist swing in the last several years has indeed made me more critical of the western liberal order, so I'm finally looking at these stories with a skeptical eye. I don't want to forgive Russia for anything they've done because of that. But this whole war scare seems manufactured. And I don't know what for. Keeping a near-peer (lol) threat in the sights of the nation? 

 

It's all so exhausting. 

 

I don't think Russia is going to sweep across the Ukrainian steppe and encircle Kyiv. I think all they want to do is prevent more NATO moves in Ukraine and they really have only one way to do that--massing troops. 

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6 hours ago, CayceG said:

The former prime minister of Sweden and part of the current international NatSec Blob is retweeting what might well be a fucking war plan from German tabloid Bild.

 

The NatSec/foreign policy blob invariably fails to mention that it was THEIR policies which were pushed on Russia in the immediate aftermath of the demise of the Soviet Union that caused such horrific economic hardship and suffering (including outright starvation) which resulted in the opportunity for a revanchist like Putin to come to power.

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54 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

The NatSec/foreign policy blob invariably fails to mention that it was THEIR policies which were pushed on Russia in the immediate aftermath of the demise of the Soviet Union that caused such horrific economic hardship and suffering (including outright starvation) which resulted in the opportunity for a revanchist like Putin to come to power.

and didnt they tell ukraine to give russia their nukes in exchange for security guarantees? lmao how'd that work out

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WJ6VDMCUPQI6ZCJHYOLPVBQ2OE.jpg&w=1440
WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

Satellite imagery shows a buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine’s borders, as well as newly arrived tanks and artillery.

 

Quote

As tensions mount between Washington and Moscow over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops, according to U.S. officials and an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post.

 

Quote

“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders,” said an administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”

 

 

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Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

They sure did!

 

To be fair, I think there was a path in the 90s to disarm and create a better future for eastern Europe/Russia...but most of what was needed never happened. Imagine if the west had 100% gone in on investing in Russia and rebuilding it after decades of neglect. Instead, it was basically just gloating and attempted economic exploitation...and now the same enemy has reappeared. Almost like the west learned nothing from WWI!

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37 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

“The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”

 

Maybe I'm off but those 2 numbers don't remotely line up, at all. 

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2 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:


Any chance that the guy who spilled the beans about this intelligence is named Michael Steele?

 

I don't believe it. 

 

I don't believe that the Kremlin has the intention of invading. What I do believe is that they have a contingency plan in place if they decide they need to launch an invasion. That does not mean they will do it, want to do it, or intend on doing it. 

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5 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Imagine if the west had 100% gone in on investing in Russia and rebuilding it after decades of neglect. Instead, it was basically just gloating and attempted economic exploitation...and now the same enemy has reappeared. Almost like the west learned nothing from WWI!

 

I agree with this wholeheartedly!

 

The expansion of NATO -- not only in former Warsaw Pact states in Central/Eastern Europe, but also to former Soviet states -- right up to Russia's western flank couldn't help BUT ensure that Russia would take any and all means to aggressively counter the threat, whether perceived or real.  Russia has faced existential threats from that direction four times in its history: from Charles XII of Sweden, from Napoleon Bonaparte, and from Germany twice in the 20th century -- how could they NOT feel vulnerable upon seeing NATO military forces right on their border?!?

 

When it comes to both Russia and its treatment of "defeated" adversaries, the West reminds me of what Talleyrand said about the Bourbon family: "They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing."

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Also, I don't like to use the term "stab in the back" when talking about international geopolitics because it's yet one more thing the Nazis ruined... 

 

But the Budapest Memorandum was ABSOLUTELY a stab in the back when Russia carved out Crimea for themselves in 2014. In return for giving up the position as the nation with the 3rd largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, Ukraine essentially got 1/5th of their land and something like 1/4 of their industrial capacity (and population) hacked off by Russia. 

 

 

Being real, we were never going to be held to that anyway. But fewer nukes out there was an objectively good thing. Ukraine paid with its borders being shifted yet again. 

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