Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (16 Apr 2024) - Ukraine "ran out of missiles" around Kyiv, which allowed Russia to destroy major power plant

[CitizenVectron]

Australia sending new tech:

 

 

 

These are drones that can be fired out of mortars and grenade launchers (and turn into drones midair), then home in and drop on the target. South Korea is also sending 800 drones which have barrels that can drop up to 6 bombs on targets.

[CitizenVectron]

US announcing $800 million more in military gear for Ukraine today. Including:

- Increased HIMARS ammunition (rockets used to strike at Russian airbases and ammo dumps)
- Thousands of rounds of artillery shells, and additional howitzers
- MRAPs
- 60 drones used for spotting
- 1,000 javelin anti-tank missiles + 1,000 TOWs
- Addition HARM anti-radar missiles

 

 

[mclumber1]

All of these munition equipped drones must scare the shit out of regular Russian soldiers on the front lines.  Yeah, the bombs they deploy are small, but they seem to do a good job of killing and/or injuring small groups of soldiers who are out in the open (or have their tank hatches open.

[Anathema-]

Fuck man after decades of proxy wars it's so amazing that Russia even risked engaging in a hot war like this. America just feeding the army that is wrecking Russia is the wet dream of every Reaganite neocon. 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

5 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

Fuck man after decades of proxy wars it's so amazing that Russia even risked engaging in a hot war like this. America just feeding the army that is wrecking Russia is the wet dream of every Reaganite neocon. 

especially since the weapons we're sending are basically from that era

[PaladinSolo]

Man i just remember people saying we couldn't touch Syria during Obama's red line stuff, cause they had all the fancy Russian AA systems, seems we probably would have had their AA systems rolled up in an hour.

[CitizenVectron]

US thinks that Russia might be starting to run out of ammo:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Wait, WHAT?

 

 

It's an open secret that Ukrainian pilots are being trained by the US in anticipation of receiving NATO fighters next year...but I had assumed they would get Gripens, or maybe F-16s.

[CitizenVectron]

Biden might have done it, that crazy motherfucker. Not proof (it could be a dust cover), but these are also used for ATACMS:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Also, read a really good explanation of what Ukraine is doing in Crimea the last week, with all the Russian active air defense. Basically, Ukraine is flying drones all over Crimea, probing what air defense the Russians have. This is likely in preparation for actual air strikes this fall when Ukraine likely makes whatever push they have planned in the south.

[CayceG]

20 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Wait, WHAT?

 

 

It's an open secret that Ukrainian pilots are being trained by the US in anticipation of receiving NATO fighters next year...but I had assumed they would get Gripens, or maybe F-16s.

 

 

I'm pushing back on this. 

 

This isn't sanctioned by either the US or Ukrainian governments. This was organized by some low level Ukrainian soldier who got pilled on A-10 propaganda. He reached out to a rich businessman friend of his and they set up a "training center" that is literally just PCs with VR goggles. And they're probably using the flight simulator DCS World for this "training."

 

This is a bullshit sideshow. 

 

Speaking of...

 

19 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Biden might have done it, that crazy motherfucker. Not proof (it could be a dust cover), but these are also used for ATACMS:

 

 

 

 

There's no proof that big plate in the back of the HIMARS launcher means that it contains an ATACAMS missile. 

[PaladinSolo]

We totally shot down that suicide drone, it just landed on our HQ!

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Apparently these constant strikes far behind enemy lines are having a strong effect on Russian morale.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 19 August 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 19 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

---

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas. Reports from August 18 about Ukrainian strikes are affecting the

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transportation infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas. Reports from August 18 about Ukrainian strikes are affecting the Russian information space despite the fact that these reports were likely overblown. Available open-source evidence indicates that Ukrainian forces did not conduct a successful kinetic attack against either the Stary Oskol Air Base in Belgorod or Belbek Air Base in Crimea on August 18. Geolocated footage shows that a fire started at a field just south of the Stary Oskol Airfield (rather than at the airfield itself), and satellite imagery shows Russian forces transporting ammunition and military equipment to a forest close to the field.[1] An unspecified Russian Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official reiterated that Russian air defenses near the Kerch Strait Bridge activated against a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) rather than an incoming strike.[2] There is no visual evidence of damage to either air base of as August 19. Geolocated footage shows no explosions or evidence of kinetic activity near the Belbek Air Base overnight on August 18-19, lending credence to claims that footage reportedly showing the explosion is recycled footage misattributed to the Belbek Air Base.[3] As ISW reported on August 18, Russian sources largely reported on and disseminated these false or exaggerated reports, indicating broader Russian panic.[4]

 

Russian authorities are visibly increasing security measures in Crimea, indicating growing worry among Russian authorities and civilians about the threat of Ukrainian strikes on rear areas previously believed to be secure. Russian authorities installed checkpoints to search Ukrainian cars and identify saboteurs in Sevastopol.[5] Certain Russian milbloggers made dramatic, pessimistic assessments that Ukrainian forces used strikes on the Kerch Strait Bridge and Belbek Air Base to conduct reconnaissance on Russian air and missile defense readiness and make assessments for new attacks, particularly the feasibility of a large strike.[6] Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications (UA StratCom) reported on August 19 that Russian forces are not in control of the situation in Crimea as evidenced by the blocking of the Kerch Strait Bridge and activation of air alarms in Sevastopol for the first time since the start of the invasion.[7] UA StratCom warned that Ukrainian forces have not yet struck the Kerch Strait Bridge with full capabilities and that prior Ukrainian strikes on the bridge demonstrate that the bridge is not as safe as the Russians previously believed.[8]

 

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remained largely unchanged on August 19, despite the Russian Ministry of Defense’s August 18 claims that Ukrainian forces would stage a provocation at the ZNPP on August 19. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the ZNPP at night on August 18-19 but did not claim that Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale attack on the facility, contrary to Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) statements on August 18.[9] Zaporizhia Oblast Head Oleksandr Starukh emphasized on August 19 that the situation at the ZNPP remains tense but under control.[10]

 

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian authorities are likely preparing to hold show trials for Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol around August 24, notably coinciding with Ukraine’s Independence Day.[11] The GUR warned that Russian authorities intend to hold a show trial of captured fighters from the Azovstal Steel Plant in the Mariupol Philharmonic Theatre and may use the theatre to stage a false-flag attack on August 24.[12] Mariupol Mayor Advisor Petro Andryushchenko confirmed that the Mariupol occupation administration canceled rehearsal schedules at the theatre in order to accommodate the show trials, which ISW previously reported on August 11.[13] As ISW previously reported, these show trials will likely be orchestrated in order to create the impression for Russian domestic audiences that Russian occupation authorities are taking necessary steps to secure occupied areas as well as attempt to demoralize Ukrainian troops.[14] Russian authorities are likely orienting the trials around Ukraine’s Independence Day in order to set further information conditions to exert law enforcement control of occupied areas.

 

Key Takeaways

• Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and transport infrastructure in Crimea and Kherson Oblast are likely reducing Russian confidence in the security of Russian rear areas.
• The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remained relatively unchanged on August 19 despite Russian claims that Ukrainian forces would stage a provocation at the plant.
• Russian authorities are likely preparing show trials of Ukrainian defenders of Azovstal on Ukraine’s Independence Day in order to further consolidate occupational control of occupied areas of Ukraine and set conditions to demoralize Ukrainian troops.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, southwest and southeast of Izyum, east of Siversk, and south and east of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements on the Southern Axis.
• Russia continues to generate regional volunteer units and will likely deploy many of them to Kherson and Ukraine’s south as part of the 3rd Army Corps. 
• Russian occupation authorities are strengthening their control of educational infrastructure in occupied areas in preparation for the approaching school year and may be sending Ukrainian children to Russia as part of a broader repopulation campaign.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

Ukraine's doing (an attempt to kill Dugin)? Or internal Russian assassination attempt?

[CayceG]

 

 

 

Video of the aftermath. 

 

And yes, that guy at the beginning is Dugin. 

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

Ukraine's doing (an attempt to kill Dugin)? Or internal Russian assassination attempt?

My guess is its internal. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

It's unquestionably internal.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 20 August 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 20 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

---

Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August 20. Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that Russian forces were unable to shoot down

 

 

 

Quote

 

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August 20. Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that Russian forces were unable to shoot down a drone, resulting in the drone hitting the roof of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters.[1] Razvozhaev then retracted his initial statement and claimed that a fleet air defense post shot down the drone, which landed on the roof and caught fire.[2] Social media footage showed a loud explosion and a cloud of smoke around the headquarters, and the drone likely detonated rather than being shot down.  Some OSINT accounts have identified the drone as a commercially-available “Skyeye 5000mm Pro UAV.”[3] Ukrainian officials did not claim responsibility for the attack as of the time of this publication. ISW has previously reported that Crimean occupation officials have obliquely accused Ukraine of orchestrating a drone attack on the headquarters on July 31 during Russia’s Navy Day.[4]

 

Russian occupation officials in Crimea are likely considering strengthening security on the peninsula following the attacks on Russian military infrastructure, and such measures may draw Russian security forces away from the front lines. Razvozhaev stated that all security services in Sevastopol are operating in “high alert” mode and controlling all entrances to the city.[5] Razvozhaev claimed that Sevastopol residents are asking the occupation administration to increase patrols in the city and establish new checkpoints, returning the peninsula to a security posture such as it had after Russia initially seized it in 2014. ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces have been using all types of security forces, including Rosgvardia, as combat forces and will likely need to divert some of these forces from the front lines and from occupation security duties elsewhere to defend occupied Crimea.[6] Russia’s continued failures to stop attacks against occupied Crimea may also spark public discontent within Russian society. One Russian milblogger criticized Russian forces for not using more electronic warfare (EW) equipment following the first drone attack on July 31.[7] Social media footage already shows many Russians waiting in traffic jams to leave Crimea and go to Russia, which may indicate growing public concern for the effectiveness of Russian security measures.[8]

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol and are likely considering strengthening security on the peninsula.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful assaults across the Eastern Axis.
• Russian forces attempted limited, failed assaults north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces failed to advance after several assaults northwest of Kherson City and east of Mykolaiv City.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots and positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
• Russian and proxy forces are continuing mobilization efforts, including forced mobilization in occupied territories and advertising campaigns.
• Russian occupation authorities continued coercive measures to force civilian cooperation with the occupation administrations.
• Conditions in occupied territories continued to deteriorate, indicating ineffective governance.

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The "National Republican Army" has claimed responsibility for the car bombing:

 

 

[Brian]

Oh boy. Things about to pop off

[PaladinSolo]

I mean the Russian military is getting its ass handed to them in Ukraine so yeah, might as well start your revolution now.

[Air_Delivery]

There are a lot of angry powerful people rn in Russia. It will be interesting if Putin still has the power to squash it. 

[CayceG]

Here's my prediction:

 

Putin won't even acknowledge this attack. If anyone in the national government does, it'll be a security official--maybe Medvedev. And if they do it'll be dismissive because it's a fringe group that has no political capital. 

 

And then the security services will look for them, maybe make a few arrests, and that will do it. 

 

I don't believe this group is very widespread because I would have suspected that they should have been seen doing some kind of activity prior to this. Then again, the resistance in Belarus, this in Ukraine, and Kazakhstan as well, may have inspired some rich and powerful people who think that this is the time to move. 

[Air_Delivery]

IMO the whole claim is bullshit.

I think its people in the FSB that had the capablity and knowledge of where she was at.  Possibly in colusion with pissed off oligarchs.

[CayceG]

The NRA (lol) have allegedly released a statement that I have seen circulating on Telegram and among Ukrainian journalists and war-watchers. Here it is. 

 

 

 

 

I have no clue if this is legit. I'm 50/50 on this being a Ukrainian psyop vs. it being authentic. 

[Air_Delivery]

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

NYT doing their thing.

[CitizenVectron]

 

Previously, Ukraine has said their KIA to WIA ratio is around 1:5 (whereas Russia is likely around 1:3, as fewer of their wounded soldiers have survived). This puts total Ukrainian casualties north of 50,000, likely.

[CitizenVectron]