Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (16 Apr 2024) - Ukraine "ran out of missiles" around Kyiv, which allowed Russia to destroy major power plant

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

One day after Russia signs a deal with the UN to allow grain safely out of Odessa...they launch missile strikes at Odessa.

 

Ukraine war: Explosions rock Ukrainian port hours after grain deal

WWW.BBC.COM

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Six blasts hit Odesa on Saturday morning, with local officials blaming a Russian missile attack.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 22 July 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keeping track of Western weapons on July 22.[1] The US package includes an additional four high mobility artillery rocket

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

The United States announced a new $270 million security package for Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials detailed their procedures for keeping track of Western weapons on July 22.[1] The US package includes an additional four high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), 36,000 artillery ammunition rounds, anti-armor systems, and 580 Phoenix Ghost drones.[2] Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov reiterated that the Ukrainian government is employing multiple monitoring mechanisms to keep track of weapons deliveries to Ukraine.[3] Ukraine’s Modern Information and Analytical System of the Main Situational Center (COTA) reportedly allows Ukrainian officials to monitor the status of arms deliveries to Ukrainian frontlines and works in tandem with NATO’s LOGFAS logistics and accounting control system.[4] Danilov’s statement is likely a response to an ongoing Russian information operation that seeks to discount Ukraine as a trustworthy recipient of Western military aid.[5]

 

Key Takeaways

• The United States announced an additional $270 million security package for Ukraine.
• Ukrainian officials reiterated that they are employing monitoring mechanisms to track and account for the delivery of Western weapons to Ukrainian frontlines.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks east of Siversk and to the east and south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance northwest of Donetsk City.
• Ukrainian forces conducted limited positional battles north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces conducted localized ground attacks near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
• Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov announced that the newly-formed Chechen “West-Akhmat” battalion will not be immediately deployed into Ukraine and will stay in Chechnya.
• Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin signed a cooperation agreement with the occupation head of Kharkiv Oblast, indicating that the Kremlin intends to integrate Kharkiv Oblast into the Russian Federation.

 

 

 

 

[Jason]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

One day after Russia signs a deal with the UN to allow grain safely out of Odessa...they launch missile strikes at Odessa.

 

Ukraine war: Explosions rock Ukrainian port hours after grain deal

WWW.BBC.COM

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Six blasts hit Odesa on Saturday morning, with local officials blaming a Russian missile attack.

 

 

Call me crazy but I'm starting to think this Vlad fellow is a dishonorable bloke. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini of the West's "intelligence briefing" for Days 124-148, focusing on operations in and around the Black Sea:

 

 

[SuperSpreader]

We're in the Afghanistan phase 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

14 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Culminating in another escalation that advances Russian retrenchment?

 

The whole ‘Russia helps stoke perpetual civil conflict in a neighboring region->after awhile, Russia escalates to full blown war->Russia gets a little land back’ would seem to be a horribly wasteful strategy for slowly rebuilding the Tsarist empire, but these are the folks who beat Napoleon by setting fire to huge swathes of their own territory. (and it’s worked so far, unfortunately)

 

The Russians first used that strategy during the invasion of Russia by Sweden's Charles XII.

[CitizenVectron]

Another day, another strike that destroys tens of thousands of Russian shells, many missiles, tanks, vehicles, etc.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Thermite falling on the centre of Donetsk (Russian-held). I do not believe for a second that Ukraine is firing this, so most likely a Russian munitions failure.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

The UA counteroffensive in the south appears to have begun, with the first goal of liberating Kherson. It's expected that open source networks will stop reporting on specific movements in the area in order to help Ukraine, so we might not have immediate news of victories/defeats.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Multiple sources (from Ukraine and Russia) also seem to be corroborating that the casualty ratio has inverted, with Russia now taking up to 10x the daily losses of Ukraine.

 

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 23 July 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 23 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visibility on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will likely be limited and lag behind events. Ukrainian

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visibility on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will likely be limited and lag behind events. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have seized unspecified settlements in Kherson Oblast but called on Ukrainian civilians to remain silent on the progress of the counteroffensive until Ukrainian authorities release official statements.[1] Foreign Policy National Security Reporter Jack Detsch reported on July 22 that an unspecified senior US defense official stated that Ukrainian forces have recaptured unspecified “portions of Russian-occupied villages” in Kherson over the past week of July 15-22, indicating that Ukrainian forces have made some unspecified territorial advances along frontlines.[2] The area between the front line and Kherson City is rural and primarily composed of small settlements that are less likely to report on force movements and engagements, allowing control-of-terrain in this area to change without evidence appearing in open-source reporting. Russian authorities additionally have no incentive to report on Ukrainian territorial gains. The informational dynamics that allow ISW to report on Russian offensive operations with relatively little lag are thus inverted in this situation.  ISW will report on the progress of any Ukrainian counteroffensives to the best of its ability within these constraints.

 

Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov seemingly confirmed that Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev has replaced Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov as acting commander of Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD).[3] Kadyrov stated that Kuzovlev, to whom he explicitly referred as acting commander of the SMD, visited Chechnya on July 23 in order to inspect Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” battalions.[4] Kuzovlev had previously served as chief of staff of the SMD and commanded the Russian grouping in Syria from November 2020 to February 2021.[5] Kuzovlev’s visit and inspection of Kadyrov’s forces, which comes two days after Kadyrov announced that these battalions will not be immediately deploying into Ukraine, may support other hints that Kadyrov is facing mounting domestic pressure.[6] The anti-Kadyrov Sheikh Mansour battalion reportedly announced an insurgency against Kadyrov’s regime on July 21, and Kadyrov may want to hold the newly formed Akhmat battalions in Chechnya to handle any local unrest.[7]

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch, or have already launched, a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.
• Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov indicated that Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev is the acting commander of the Southern Military District.
• Russian forces conducted limited reconnaissance operations east of Bakhmut and continued limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south of Bakhmut.
• The Kremlin continued to form regional volunteer battalions and likely intends to have 16 such battalions formed by the end of July.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing to prepare for referenda on the annexation of occupied areas into the Russian Federation and are taking measures to isolate occupied areas from the non-Russian information space.

 

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini of the West's "intelligence briefing" for Days 124-148, focusing on Russian air operations:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Conflict overview for June 2022 from Kings & Generals:

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

That accuracy to only hit one lane of a bridge and just about equal distances.

[CitizenVectron]

2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

 

That accuracy to only hit one lane of a bridge and just about equal distances.

 

Very much a psychological strike—we only hit the income lane, so please use the retreat lane. Also, we can be this accurate anytime we want.

[PaladinSolo]

Ukraine smoked an entire S300 battery and its targeting vehicle.  The 3rd and 4th were likely damaged one the first 2 went off. 

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

There is a small but real chance that the Russian troops near Kherson dissolve into a messy retreat. Maybe not a route, but something close.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Air_Delivery]

7 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

 

That accuracy to only hit one lane of a bridge and just about equal distances.

Do those bridge strikes even do anything? Seems they can just drive around them. 

[PaladinSolo]

10 hours ago, Air_Delivery said:

Do those bridge strikes even do anything? Seems they can just drive around them. 

Well other than letting them know you can hit anything anytime, i'm also fairly certain you don't want to drive anything heavier than a truck over that bridge now.

[CitizenVectron]

 

411,000 rounds of 155mm ammo, wow. At 7,000 rounds per day, however that is really only enough for two months of fighting. Crazy how much artillery is being used.

[CitizenVectron]

Russians using incendiary MLRS on a Ukrainian positions:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 24 July 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 24 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast. Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are undertaking unspecified counteroffensive actions in

 

 

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast. Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are undertaking unspecified counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast.[1] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 23 that Ukrainian forces are advancing “step by step” in Kherson Oblast.[2] His statement does not make clear whether he is referring to small, ongoing Ukrainian advances in Kherson Oblast or a broader counteroffensive.[3] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are firing on Russian transport facilities in Kherson Oblast to impede maneuverability and logistics support. This activity is consistent with support to an active counteroffensive or conditions-setting for an upcoming counteroffensive.[4] Khlan also said that Ukrainian strikes on Russian-controlled bridges around Kherson City only aim to prevent Russian forces from moving equipment into the city without stopping food and other essential supplies from entering the city.[5]

 

Alarm in the Russian nationalist information space continues to grow as the pace of Russian operations slows in the face of successful Ukrainian high-mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) strikes on key Russian logistics and command-and-control nodes. Moscow Calling, a medium-sized Russian Telegram channel with 31,000 subscribers, posted an appraisal of the entirety of Russian operations in Ukraine since February 24.[6] Moscow Calling defined three distinct phases of the war—the first spanning from initial invasion to the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv Oblasts and the second spanning between that point and the introduction of Western-provided HIMARS.[7] Moscow Calling notably defined the arrival of HIMARS as a distinct turning point in the war and stated that previously provided Western weapons systems (such as NLAWs, Javelins, Stingers, and Bayraktars) did very little against Russian artillery bombardment (they are not designed or intended to counter artillery attack), but that HIMARS changed everything for Russian capabilities in Ukraine.[8] Moscow Calling strongly insinuated that recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian warehouses, communication hubs, and rear bases are having a devastating and potentially irreversible impact on the development of future Russian offensives.[9]

 

This post is consistent with previous reports from Western defense officials that Russian troops are being forced to engage in various HIMARS mitigation tactics on the battlefield, including camouflage measures and constantly changing the location of equipment groupings.[10] These mitigation tactics are impeding Russian forces from conducting the massive artillery barrages that they have widely employed over the course of the war, as evidenced by NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data that shows consistently fewer observed heat anomalies over the frontline in Donbas since the introduction of HIMARS to Ukraine.

 

 

 

The Kremlin is likely facing mounting (if still very limited) domestic dissent from within ethnic minority enclaves, which are disproportionately bearing the brunt of the Kremlin’s force generation efforts. Vasily Matenov, founder of the “Asians of Russia” organization, stated in early July that he had officially registered the organization in order to advocate for “endangered and small-numbered peoples who are discriminated against by the Russian state.”[11] Matenov emphasized that the preliminary goal of “Asians of Russia” is to stop the war in Ukraine due to devastating statistics on the combat deaths of soldiers from minority groups.[12] Similarly, Advisor to Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko cited Ukrainian sources that claim Russian authorities pay triple amounts to families of deceased soldiers from Moscow compared to families of soldiers from the minority-dominant region of Buryatia.[13] As ISW has previously reported, protest groups in ethnic minority enclaves have already formed in Tuva and Buryatia, and these communities will likely continue to protest the Kremlin’s reliance on drawing combat power from peripheral groups of Russian society.[14]

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin is facing mounting (if still very limited) domestic dissent from ethnic minorities who are disproportionately bearing the burden of the Russian war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south of Bakhmut on July 24.
• Ukrainian strikes have damaged all three Russian-controlled bridges leading into Kherson City within the past week.
• Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin continued constituting regional volunteer battalions and is leveraging private military companies’ recruitment drives to generate combat power.
• Russian occupation authorities continued setting conditions for annexation referenda in occupied territories and are recruiting Russian civilians for reconstruction efforts.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 25 July 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitations that previously prevented them from rapidly gaining substantial ground during offensive operations in Luhansk

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitations that previously prevented them from rapidly gaining substantial ground during offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast. Geolocated social media footage from July 25 shows that troops of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) have advanced into Novoluhanske and Russian and Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces are taking control of the territory of the Vuhledar Power Plant on the northern edge of Novoluhanske, likely as a result of a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from the area.[1]

 

Russian Telegram channels began reporting on Russian attempts to advance on Novoluhanske as early as May 25, which means that Russian troops have been unsuccessfully attacking this single location for two months.[2] Novoluhanske is neither a large settlement nor is it characterized by particularly challenging terrain, yet Russian forces have impaled themselves on it for weeks.

 

The capture of Novoluhanske and the Vuhledar Power Plant will not generate an advantageous salient along which Russian troops will be able to advance northwards towards Bakhmut. The Russian campaign to seize the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area benefitted from the fact that they had already created a salient with those two cities near its apex. They were able continually to press on the flanks of Ukrainian defensive positions until they had secured Severodonetsk.  They struggled after that to take advantage of the fact that Lysychansk remained at the apex of a salient until they managed to break out from Popasna to the south and drive northward.  Siversk is currently the town closest to the apex of the remaining salient, and Russian forces have struggled to advance against it. The Russian seizure of Novoluhanske and the Vuhledar Power Plant, on the other hand, flattens the Ukrainian defensive line rather than perpetuating a salient, thereby limiting the advantage the occupation of those areas gives to the Russian forces.

 

The operations around Novoluhanske indicate that Russian forces are suffering the same limitations in terms of their ability to effectively use battlefield geometry (such as the creation of effective salients) to their advantage, which is exacerbated by the extreme difficulty Russian forces regularly have capturing small and relatively insignificant bits of terrain over weeks or months of fighting. These limitations will grow as Russian units continually degrade themselves during assaults on small villages. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to effectively leverage the capture of Novoluhanske to take Bakhmut, and the continual tactical and operational limitations they are facing on the battlefield will likely contribute to the culmination of the offensive in Donbas before capturing Bakhmut, Slovyansk, or any other major city in Donetsk Oblast.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces made marginal gains south of Bakhmut but are unlikely to be able to effectively leverage these advances to take full control of Bakhmut itself.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, east of Siversk, and east of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces are continuing to fortify and strengthen positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian strongholds along the Southern Axis.
• Russian forces continued to withdraw military equipment from storage in Omsk and face challenges with repairing damaged combat vehicles.
• Russian occupation officials are continuing to set conditions for the annexation of occupied territories to the Russian Federation and to extend administrative control of occupied areas of Ukraine.

 

[CitizenVectron]

More explosions in Kherson, apparently from one of the main bridges. Ukraine is advancing towards the city, now, and is clearly blowing the bridges the Russians could use to reinforce. Apparently, Ukraine also has the supply roads from Crimea to Kherson targeted and is attempting to stop further reinforcements out of Crimea.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 26 July 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ongoing preparations for referenda on the annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation. Donetsk People’s R

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ongoing preparations for referenda on the annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Deputy Minister of Information Daniil Bezsonov stated on July 25 that the DNR expects to capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the end of August.[1] Various Russian and Western sources have previously reported that Russia intends to hold referenda in occupied areas by the first half of September, likely sometime around September 11, which is the unified voting day in the Russian Federation.[2] Proxy leadership and Russian-backed occupation authorities are likely pushing for deadlines for military objectives to support condition setting for expedited annexation objectives, although Russian forces remain unlikely to occupy significant additional territory in Ukraine before the early autumn annexation timeline.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian proxy and occupation leadership is enunciating expedited deadlines for the capture of Ukrainian territory to align with the Kremlin’s efforts to prepare for the annexation of occupied territories into the Russian Federation.
• Russian forces gained marginal ground northeast of Bakhmut and are continuing to fight east and south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted a limited attack northwest of Izyum, likely to secure Russian rear areas on the Izyum-Slovyansk line.
• Russian forces conducted limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City near the Zaporizhia Oblast border.
• Russian forces focused on defending occupied lines and conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian logistics nodes in Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin is continuing to constitute regional volunteer battalions for deployment into Ukraine.
• Ukrainian intelligence leaks continue to reveal the Kremlin’s annexation agendas for occupied Ukraine by way of falsified referenda.

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Ukraine is placing an order for 100 PzH2000 mobile artillery systems from the German manufacturer. They've been a favourite of Ukrainian soldiers, it seems, combining the usual strengths of NATO 155mm artillery with a mobile, tank-like base. These will be new systems, and won't arrive for months, and are obviously intended for future use in the Ukrainian army.

 

It should be noted that Germany itself only has 150 of these in service, so this is a large order. It is very likely that if Ukraine survives this invasion in one form or another, that in a few years it will have the largest and most capable military in Europe.

 

(S+) Ukraine-Krieg: Berlin genehmigt Verkauf von 100 Panzerhaubitzen

WWW.SPIEGEL.DE

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Wegen der zögerlichen Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine steht die Ampelkoalition unter Druck. Nach SPIEGEL-Informationen hat die Regierung nun hinter den Kulissen den Milliardenkauf von 100 Panzerhaubitzen abgesegnet.

 

[CitizenVectron]

Some evidence that Russia has/is retreated from areas in Kharkiv Oblast (withdrawn pontoon bridges, camps, etc). Also evidence they've withdrawn from the Lyman area in Donetsk. It seems that many of the troops station in the east are being sent to reinforce the south as Ukraine begins is counteroffensive. Hopefully the eastern/northern Ukrainian forces can capitalize on this and retake some of the land Russia took in the last month.

 

But here's the thing—many of Ukraine's armoured units (and forces reconstituted from the north after the defense of Kyiv) haven't been moved to the south, they've been moved to the east. It's hard to say, but it is entirely possible that Kherson is somewhat of a feint meant to draw the Russians out of the Donbas, and that Ukraine's real main offensive will be in the east, where the Izyum salient seems ripe for encirclement and recapture. I do think Ukraine intends to retake the city of Kherson, however.

[CitizenVectron]

 

Remarkable.

[CitizenVectron]