Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Sep 2023) - Ukrainian special services were "likely" behind drone/ground operation directed against Wagner-backed militia near Sudanese capital

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

US believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, Biden tells Nato leaders | Ukraine | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Invasion could come within a few days, diplomats say after White House holds situation room meeting

 

Quote

 

Joe Biden has told other Nato and EU leaders that the US believes Vladimir Putin has decided to carry out an invasion of Ukraine, which could happen in the next few days, according to diplomatic sources.

 

Biden’s call to allies followed a situation room meeting at the White House to discuss the latest intelligence on the Russian military buildup, and on Putin’s thinking.

 

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Friday there were “very troubling signs of Russian escalation”.

 

“We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time – and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics,” Blinken said.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

[CitizenVectron]

WWII has basically passed out of living memory—it's not surprising that people who have never lived through large-scale war are going to let it happen again.

[CitizenVectron]

Also...what do we think are the chances of at least some connection of the timing of the large-scale "trucker" protests in North America/Europe with this? My bet is that Russia has been fomenting/supporting this for months and triggered it to happen now in order to create more chaos.

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Also...what do we think are the chances of at least some connection of the timing of the large-scale "trucker" protests in North America/Europe with this? My bet is that Russia has been fomenting/supporting this for months and triggered it to happen now in order to create more chaos.

 

It would certainly fit the Russian playbook to foment domestic chaos in NATO countries to try to distract us from their military adventurism.

[CitizenVectron]

Well, it goes without saying, but I hope this doesn't spiral out of control. I certainly am not prepared for nuclear war.

[CitizenVectron]

Another question: how soon after Russian conquers 1/2 (or all) of Ukraine do conservatives in the west start to say that Ukraine deserved it, or that their life might be better now under Putin?

[Jason]

11 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Well, it goes without saying, but I hope this doesn't spiral out of control. I certainly am not prepared for nuclear war.

 

It's never too late to stock up on bottlecaps. 

[mclumber1]

37 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

It's never too late to stock up on bottlecaps. 

 

I already live in Las Vegas.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

 

Depending on what happens, I expect Poland to be on the receiving end of a massive humanitarian refugee crisis, with Ukrainians fleeing across the border to escape Russian invasion. I guess it all depends on what Russia does (make it clear they are only taking the east, etc).

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Depending on what happens, I expect Poland to be on the receiving end of a massive humanitarian refugee crisis, with Ukrainians fleeing across the border to escape Russian invasion. I guess it all depends on what Russia does (make it clear they are only taking the east, etc).

 

That's the immediate expectation.

[CitizenVectron]

Hey everyone remember The End of History?!

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

Hey everyone remember The End of History?!

 

I bet Fukuyama regrets that title every waking moment of his life now.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Can’t wait for the American trucker protest which is mostly going to be Jeep’s and lifted 80k ford overcompensators

[Jwheel86]

 

[GeneticBlueprint]

1 hour ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

I would trust that mustache with my life tbh

[CitizenVectron]

Israel and US are evacuating embassy staff from Kyiv.

 

Edit - and Russian embassy as well

[CitizenVectron]

 

[mclumber1]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

I understand why the UK would do this, it's just an odd statement to hear - as if they are tucking their tail between their legs.  (Obviously not)

[Fizzzzle]

Everything I've seen is that Russia will invade Ukraine within the next 2 weeks , and if they don't by then, then it probably won't happen.

 

The thing that fucks me up is that Russia has to know that Ukraine's strategy will basically be like Finland in the winter war. "We know we can't win a protracted fight, but every inch will have to be paid for in blood."

 

The Winter War was kind of a pyrrhic victory for Russia.

[Jason]

7 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

Everything I've seen is that Russia will invade Ukraine within the next 2 weeks , and if they don't by then, then it probably won't happen.

 

The thing that fucks me up is that Russia has to know that Ukraine's strategy will basically be like Finland in the winter war. "We know we can't win a protracted fight, but every inch will have to be paid for in blood."

 

The Winter War was kind of a pyrrhic victory for Russia.

 

An alternate take on the "Finlandization" talk. 

[Fizzzzle]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

An alternate take on the "Finlandization" talk. 

What's that?

[Jason]

Just now, Fizzzzle said:

What's that?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/world/europe/finlandization-ukraine-russia-nato.html

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

It's not even going to be remotely close to the "Winter War".

 

Outside of a few thousand (if that) die-hard nationalists, the vast majority of the Ukrainian military will shrug their shoulders, simply decide that "This shit ain't worth it", and melt away.

[Fizzzzle]

Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

It's not even going to be remotely close to the "Winter War".

 

Outside of a few thousand (if that) die-hard nationalists, the vast majority of the Ukrainian military will shrug their shoulders, simply decide that "This shit ain't worth it", and melt away.

I hope that's the case.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

33 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

I hope that's the case.

 

Furthermore, the Russian military objectives are going to be largely limited to the Russian-speaking eastern oblasts.  I would be shocked if they actually had any designs on Kyiv itself.

[CitizenVectron]

Artillery in Crimea has been moved to target Ukraine, and is in firing position.

 

 

[CayceG]

No idea how we have this intel, but...

 

 

 

Note, this isn't "Putin told his commanders to attack on the 16th." It's "be prepared in case you get the order."

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

18 minutes ago, CayceG said:

No idea how we have this intel, but...

 

 

 

Note, this isn't "Putin told his commanders to attack on the 16th." It's "be prepared in case you get the order."

 

 

 

 

Putin accidentally sent to his entire distribution list and cc'd Biden. Classic email mistake!

[mclumber1]

22 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Putin accidentally sent to his entire distribution list and cc'd Biden. Classic email mistake!

 

The "undo send" function in gmail has saved me a time or two!

[chakoo]

It's going to be interesting to see how well the rest of the world keeps to their word on sanctions and ending existing deals with Russia after they invade. If they fail then I really think China will finally make their move on Taiwan in the not too distant future (HK has been a warmup).