CitizenVectron Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 hours ago, CayceG said: No idea how we have this intel, but... Note, this isn't "Putin told his commanders to attack on the 16th." It's "be prepared in case you get the order." In other words, it's a "Warning Order" which is preparatory order issued to indicate that an "Operations Order" may be forthcoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Time to take bets? Redeploy Russian ground forces away from the Ukrainian border but continue to aid pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine, conduct offensive cyber operations, and engage in other irregular activity in Ukraine and the region. Send Russian troops into the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Seize Ukraine as far west as the Dnepr River. Seize Ukraine up to the Dnepr River and an additional belt of land to connect Russia with Transdniestria along the Black Sea. Seize just a belt of land between Russia and Transdniestria along the Black Sea. Seize all of Ukraine. I'm going with 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Put me down for 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 Somewhere between 2 and 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 7. Russia invades the Baltics and Poland - setting off WW3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I think Putin wants a regime change. I think he is going after Kyiv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 None of the above. I think they launch an entire operation to go into Kyiv and oust Ze. This will involve armored and air assault attacks supported by missile and rocket artillery in the north along the paths from Belarus to Kyiv, in the east in the occupied territories, and towards Kharkiv. The goal will be to remove Ze from power and to eliminate Ukraine's ability to fight a defensive war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 Allegedly Russian state tv today was showing pictures of dead bodies in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv was on the verge of gassing Donbas, and that Russia must not allow this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Allegedly Russian state tv today was showing pictures of dead bodies in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv was on the verge of gassing Donbas, and that Russia must not allow this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I'm definitely leaning towards these posts from ResetERA: Quote So I would think if Russia is not going to call up reserves then their goal is most definitely not the whole of Ukraine, at most East of Dnieper, most plausible would be limited incursions, securing Kharkiv, and a land bridge to Crimea. Quote That would align with the 1st guard tank division currently getting in place at belgograd. I reckon they’d want to cut off and encircle the ukranian forces in the east quite fast so they’d probably push through kharkiv towards crimea and vice versa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 About that whole "we'll promise to not join NATO" thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I really have to wonder if Lavrov is getting a tad bit annoyed with this long table shit: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 So will the Ukraine present any opposition when Russia invades? Or is it more of a 'Whelp, we're Russia now' when the troops cross the border? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, Derek said: So will the Ukraine present any opposition when Russia invades? Or is it more of a 'Whelp, we're Russia now' when the troops cross the border? I expect that some units will resist fiercely, but the vast majority will probably simply consider discretion to be the better part of valor and simply melt away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: I expect that some units will resist fiercely, but the vast majority will probably simply consider discretion to be the better part of valor and simply melt away. I think it also depends on what Russia does. If they make it clear that they are cutting off the eastern regions then units are far more likely to just surrender. If Russia is advancing on Kyiv or Lviv or something, then perhaps there would be greater resistance. Also depends on morale if there is a 2-3 day period of bombardment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said: I think it also depends on what Russia does. If they make it clear that they are cutting off the eastern regions then units are far more likely to just surrender. If Russia is advancing on Kyiv or Lviv or something, then perhaps there would be greater resistance. Also depends on morale if there is a 2-3 day period of bombardment. Exactly. As I do believe that any Russian incursion will be limited to the eastern regions, I fully expect that the Russians will seek to encircle rather than outright destroy the Ukrainian forces in those areas and will open corridors for them to withdraw (minus any heavy weapons) to the western part of the country beyond the Dneiper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 The next three days: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Shocked, but not shocked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 What's fascinating about all of this is that the same thing happened in 2008 with Georgia. But the open source satellite pics and tiktok videos didn't exist. Twitter barely existed. It's incredibly interesting to see a war get started over the course of weeks right before our eyes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, CayceG said: What's fascinating about all of this is that the same thing happened in 2008 with Georgia. But the open source satellite pics and tiktok videos didn't exist. Twitter barely existed. It's incredibly interesting to see a war get started over the course of weeks right before our eyes. Today we are all Ukrainians. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Jason said: Today we are all Ukrainians. Yes, but Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 That declaration would be important because... So maybe Putin declares those regions as sovereign republics, but, oh what a coincidence, Ukraine is occupying some of the territory those republics claim to own! Well, Russia will be a good neighbour and help free those poor people... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 And here we go. Maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 I bet it was those pesky western Ukrainians, with their embroidery and dancing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: I get it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, mclumber1 said: I get it I didn't at first, but lemme see if I connected the dots right in my head.... The Japanese one is referring to a fault that caused or made Fukashima worse. Which caused Germany to over extend on clean energy due to an overreaction on nuclear power. And due to pandemic influenced supply shortages it caused Germany to fall back on dirty power sources like gas and oil. Which is supplied largely by Russia, making Germany much more pliable at the negotiating table. Did I get that right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chairslinger said: I didn't at first, but lemme see if I connected the dots right in my head.... The Japanese one is referring to a fault that caused or made Fukashima worse. Which caused Germany to over extend on clean energy due to an overreaction on nuclear power. And due to pandemic influenced supply shortages it caused Germany to fall back on dirty power sources like gas and oil. Which is supplied largely by Russia, making Germany much more pliable at the negotiating table. Did I get that right? Yes. Though it is a meme and it takes Russia's agency completely out of the equation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chairslinger said: I didn't at first, but lemme see if I connected the dots right in my head.... The Japanese one is referring to a fault that caused or made Fukashima worse. Which caused Germany to over extend on clean energy due to an overreaction on nuclear power. And due to pandemic influenced supply shortages it caused Germany to fall back on dirty power sources like gas and oil. Which is supplied largely by Russia, making Germany much more pliable at the negotiating table. Did I get that right? Yes. It's very meme-y, but has some truth to it. However, even if Germany completely went away from fossil fuel usage for power generation, they still heat their homes with natural gas. Converting an entire nation from natural gas heating to electric heating would take a huge amount of time, money and effort that they just weren't prepared to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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