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In Theory: Will there be more than one next-gen Xbox? And if so, what form could the new console family take?


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In Theory: Will there be more than one next-gen Xbox? And if so, what form could the new console family take?

It was the E3 where we half-expected Sony to break cover with its plans for the next generation of PlayStation hardware, but come the hour, it was actually Microsoft that confirmed that its hardware engineers are hard at work architecting what Phil Spencer called "the next Xbox consoles". Implying that more than one new Xbox is in development right now is an interesting - and dare we suggest, deliberate - choice of words.

This was swiftly followed up by a report from Microsoft/Windows-focused website thurrott.com, reporting on internal MS roadmaps describing a 'family of devices' currently in development under the 'Scarlett' codename, set to arrive in 2020. Thurrott's insider stories along these lines are typically well-sourced and the timelines tie-in with the arrival of the technological building blocks that will enable next-gen hardware. But with Spencer talking about new hardware in the plural and the Scarlett project reported as more than just a single console release, we have to wonder what form the next generation is going to take, and what separates each of these machines from a technological perspective. After all, in the here and now, Microsoft often refers to its Xbox One 'family' - similar devices in many ways, but with radically different levels of rendering power.

There are further strands to weave into the discussion here, with Spencer revealing more in his annual E3 interview with Giant Bomb. It's well worth a watch, with the Xbox boss seeing next-gen as an opportunity to focus on higher frame-rates and to leverage the firm's existing work with variable refresh rate and 120Hz display technology. Spencer also sees the arrival of new hardware as the means by which CPU and GPU power can be rebalanced more in line with what we see on today's PCs, as opposed to the situation we have now where even Xbox One X - the most powerful home console - is pairing a six teraflop GPU with low-power x86 CPU cores originally designed for tablets.

At the same time, Microsoft also announced that Xbox would be moving into the cloud with the arrival of a streaming service, presumably the 'Netflix for games' model that crashed and burned so spectacularly with OnLive, reinvigorated with better tech and faster infrastructure. Again, in the Giant Bomb interview, Spencer talks about making Xbox games available to people who simply won't buy a console and who may not even own a TV. Microsoft isn't alone in this - EA announced an Origin streaming service for its titles during E3, and we're aware of at least two more industry giants who have yet to announce, but will be looking to move into this space before next-gen consoles arrive. Spencer's talk of an emphasis on high frame-rates is fortuitous here - despite retaining a healthy scepticism, we've actually had some good streaming gameplay experiences, but running the game server-side at 60fps or better is the only way to get anything like a low enough latency response to pass for a local experience.

So, with all of this information in mind, let's consider what could possibly constitute a prospective family of next-gen Xbox devices. There is some 'out there' blue skies thinking here, but we've never had a mid-generation console refresh as profound as PS4 Pro and Xbox One X, and actually delivering a worthwhile leap in graphics power at a console-friendly price-point is going be challenging to say the least - and that certainly informs some of the speculation here.

Option #1: A next-gen console and streaming box

Based on the information revealed so far, a very simple explanation for what Microsoft is up to could simply come down to a full-blown next-gen console, accompanied by a secondary family member that compromises of a cheap streaming receiver box with an Xbox controller.

To deliver a truly appreciable upgrade over Xbox One X (certainly in GPU terms), any next-gen machine will be rather expensive - we're talking about a cutting-edge 7nm processor, a lot of memory and a fast storage solution. If you can play the same games with a small latency and image quality hit and save a massive amount of cash via inexpensive streaming hardware, that could be a compelling alternative for a mainstream audience.

In terms of disadvantages, creating a streaming box does seem at odds with the intended market indicated by Phil Spencer, and the concept of a mainstream piece of streaming hardware may still be too early when the infrastructure required for a good experience remains patchy in many countries.

Option #2: A next-gen console with Xbox One X as the new base machine

The emphasis on higher frame-rates talked about by Phil Spencer opens up a potentially interesting situation, bearing in mind how capable the existing Xbox One X's GPU is. Perhaps Xbox One X could replace the S as the new base console via a hardware redesign - with a 7nm shrink of the X's Scorpio Engine and a possible move to a more efficient 256-bit GDDR6 memory arrangement. We would still have the issue of the under-performing AMD Jaguar CPU cores, but they would only need to run next-gen games at half the frame-rate. GPU-wise, doubling per-frame render time and perhaps running at reduced resolutions should allow the graphics side to keep up. Another key advantage would be that existing owners of the Xbox One X would see the lifespan of their console extended and their library would still transition seamlessly to the full next-gen box as and when they upgrade.

Disadvantages? First of all, AMD's Ryzen CPU technology is far, far faster than a mere 2x performance boost over the Jaguar cores in the current-gen machines. It's a true generational leap, and my concern would be that next-gen's most profound improvement in terms of core spec would not be fully tapped into if support for last-gen consoles persists for much longer than the transitional 'cross-gen' year we usually see. Secondly, for this strategy to gain momentum from developers, I suspect it would require Sony following the same principle, with the PS4 Pro becoming the new base machine. It's questionable whether the raw horsepower is there to make this happen, while Sony - in the form of Mark Cerny himself - has told us about the firm's commitment to the traditional console life cycle, suggesting that PS5 will offer a clean break with the past.

There's also the question of whether what is effectively a 'Slim' version of an existing Xbox One console would fit into the existing definition of a console 'family'. Xbox One S and Xbox One X definitely are of the same family - they run the same games, the same OS, and operate in the same ecosystem. I suspect that this would not be the case between a next-gen Xbox and the X, with the new machine offering a lot of new features current-gen hardware can't deliver. Despite the negative points, don't rule this one out though. Remember, Phil Spencer has only talked about "the next Xbox consoles" and a revised Xbox One X would fit the description in the same way that the Xbox One S would have back in the day.

Option #3: Two - or more - next-gen machines

Bear with me on this one. When Xbox One X launched at $499/£450, there was a lot of controversy about the console simply costing too much. My response? Prepare yourself for a next-gen console equally as expensive - if not more so. Moving from a 16nm to a 7nm process will make a more powerful machine possible, but the cost per processor rises - especially so in the short term. A faster GPU also requires more bandwidth and more memory, at a time when RAM prices are skyrocketing. On top of that, the existing storage standard - the 2.5-inch laptop hard drive - will likely be too slow to meaningfully feed a console with 16GB or 24GB of memory. Solid state solutions would do the job, but the cost is high there as well.

However, as Phil Spencer (and indeed AMD's product line-up) has indicated, the biggest increase to power delivered by the next-gen consoles will be via a much more powerful CPU - and the good news is that this component is not at all expensive. In terms of silicon area, we'd estimate that an eight-core, 16-thread Ryzen set-up at 7nm occupies a similar amount of space as the existing AMD Jaguar clusters at 16nm in Xbox One X. This opens the door to a very interesting scenario: two next-gen Xboxes of the same family, separated only by their GPU power, which would inevitably translate into varying in-game resolutions per box, and perhaps other graphical differences along the lines seen between Xbox One S and Xbox One X.

A cheaper Xbox that retains a fully enabled Ryzen set-up would run the same games as the full-power box, and in theory could do so for the entire duration of the next console generation - a role that Xbox One X could not deliver. This cheaper box could have a smaller amount of memory (meaning lower texture quality in-game), and could conceivably still use the standard 2.5-inch mechanical hard drive for storage.

The processor for the less powerful console could either be a unique, smaller design to cut costs or else it could be based on salvage parts from the full-fat machine - partly defective chips from the production line with GPU compute units disabled in order to make them viable (this process is used in virtually all graphics cards). Disadvantages? Any variances between the models in memory allocation could potentially restrict developers and hold back the fully enabled box from being everything it could be.

Option #4: The Xbox One X dev kit model

As we've already explained, not every processor that rolls off the production line is perfect. To increase the yield of useable chips, Xbox One X has 40 active GPU compute units when in actual fact, there are 44 in total on the silicon. Indeed, every current-gen console has either two or four compute units disabled, whether you own a Sony or Microsoft machine. In the case of Xbox One X's Scorpio Engine, the fully enabled design is actually put to use in development hardware, which also features 24GB of RAM up against the standard console's 12GB. It also has a 1TB SSD, which obviously offers a speed bump compared to a mechanical laptop-style drive.

This set-up potentially opens the door to a new Xbox 'Elite' console, with a performance boost and much faster loading times - either through caching to the extra RAM, or else through the inclusion of a higher specification storage system. If pursuing high frame-rates and accommodating high refresh monitors is an objective of the new Xbox, it stands to reason that there'd be a minority of users who'd be looking to get as fast a box as possible - and would be willing to pay a premium for the privilege. Toss in a second-gen Elite controller and I suspect that it would find a sizeable audience to make the enterprise worthwhile.

The disadvantages are self-evident, however. Hardware that qualifies as a genuine generational leap over the machines of today may well command a price premium anyway, and any kind of Elite console would be even pricier and performance increases may be limited - or non-existent - depending on the title.

Option #5: New boxes with staggered release intervals

Up until this point, we've been assuming that the Thurrott report is entirely on the money and that more than one 'Nextbox' will appear in the mooted 2020 window, but intervals between releases is obviously an option for Microsoft. When I met up with Microsoft corporate vice-president of the Xbox and Windows platform, Mike Ybarra, he outlined a vision of an evolving family of devices based on the way that people upgrade their smartphones. Microsoft believes that users want the best hardware as soon as possible, and this doesn't fit the existing notion of a console generation lasting six or seven years.

In terms of how this could apply to the next generation of Xbox devices, it's pretty straightforward: AMD's big leap in CPU power has now been achieved, and future Ryzen processors - for the next few years at least - are likely to be more iterative advances; the Intel model, in effect. However, graphics will continue to evolve and scale and a substantial leap in GPU power will be achievable with every new process shrink. It's 7nm technology that makes next-gen machines possible in 2019/2020 but the next process node beyond that should offer something in the order of a 2x increase to GPU performance. Crucially, this would still keep the 2019/2020 box in contention - it would just operate with a reduced visual feature set.

New console boxes with each process shrink are likely to happen anyway, but is this what Phil Spencer really meant during his E3 2018 media briefing? In this scenario, there'd be no real need to specifically float the idea of another Xbox model due in 2022/2023 when the one due in 2019/2020 is the only one really worth talking about.

Next-gen: the challenges and the opportunities

We need not worry about the CPU side of the next-gen machines. AMD's Ryzen offers phenomenal performance for the amount of silicon area it uses, it's power efficient and it's broadly competitive with the best on the market - Intel's Core architecture. As we've discussed in the past, the potential here for deeper, richer, more complex games - or indeed more titles running at 60fps - is mouth-watering.

The issue is that while AMD can offer a generational leap over the graphics performance of the base PlayStation 4 (effectively the main target current-gen target platform), delivering the same increase in performance over PS4 Pro and especially Xbox One X is far more challenging. Doubling X's GPU power is achievable, but if the aim is also to double frame-rate, the ability to deliver richer graphics is therefore more limited. If the objective is to lock to native 4K and deliver hugely improved visuals, again, 2x Xbox One X performance isn't enough.

We knew that Forza Horizon 4 would be coming to E3 2018, of course. After all, a new Forza game arrives without fail eve…

My best guess? The so-called 'FauxK' upscaling techniques seen today will be back, refined and improved for next-gen - be it through developers' ingenuity or via dedicated hardware. A 6x to 8x leap in GPU performance over the base PlayStation 4 can be delivered, but servicing a 4x leap in resolution doesn't leave a huge amount of remaining overhead for radically improved visuals. The jump from OG Xbox to Xbox 360 required a bleeding-edge GPU to deliver a 3x increase in pixel density with enough headroom for much improved graphics. Meanwhile, the leap from PS3 to PS4 saw only a 2.25x increase in pixel-count. In this respect, expecting native 4K across the board from next-gen doesn't seem likely.

More probable is innovative use of custom hardware. There are already rumours of Sony collaborating directly with AMD on its Navi architecture, and PS4 Pro offered some fascinating technology in allowing a console GPU to punch well above its weight in supporting 4K screens, even though third-party developer buy-in was relatively limited. Next-gen is a crossroads for game technology and this time around, we may well see alternative visions from Sony and Microsoft etched directly into the silicon, with each taking strategic bets on the future of graphics via the integration of custom hardware. If the make-up of the current-gen machines was defined by two vendors using very similar AMD technology, next-gen - by necessity - may be a little more interesting, and dare we say it, a little more exotic? And the idea of a new, more tightly focused series of consoles could add further spice.

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Nice Post  here are my thoughts about next gen.  MS will probably release 3 sku's  next gen.  The lowest model would be a Streaming Machine to take advantage of the cloud power and come in at around 150-200 bucks.  The Mid Skew  could easily just be a revamp  of the xbox 1x  and simply replace the jag cores with Ryzen cores  and just keep the same gpu that the x currently has.  That would be a MASSIVE upgrade over the current x and it would also help them keep costs down cause the 1xparts will have been out for years plus they will shrink down to 7nm so all the parts would be even more efficient.  This sku should come in at the 300 dollar price mark.     The Final Sku would basically be   a Ryzen core cpu  paired with a new gpu  that would be a 4k60 EVERYTHING machine  and the price of the premium system should be 400.

 

If MS takes this strategy next gen I think they could make alot of noise.  With the addition of the 5 new studios  they should have some pretty impressive shit ready by the time next gen comes around

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8 minutes ago, TomCat said:

The Mid Skew  could easily just be a revamp  of the xbox 1x  and simply replace the jag cores with Ryzen cores  and just keep the same gpu that the x currently has.  That would be a MASSIVE upgrade over the current x and it would also help them keep costs down cause the 1xparts will have been out for years plus they will shrink down to 7nm so all the parts would be even more efficient.

 

There's no way they stick with the X1X's gpu with any new console that isn't a revision.  In 5 years, it'd feel more antiquated/bottlenecked than OG Xbox One's are now.  Gotta account for the next-gen's visual leap.

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Nothing wrong with the 1x's gpu  its perfect for entry level 4k games.  Look what the gpu is doing with weak ass support from the jag cores. put some ryzen cores in there that can keep up with the gpu  and games would be twice as good as on the current X

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3 hours ago, TomCat said:

Nothing wrong with the 1x's gpu  its perfect for entry level 4k games.  Look what the gpu is doing with weak ass support from the jag cores. put some ryzen cores in there that can keep up with the gpu  and games would be twice as good as on the current X

 

The 4k games of today are not the 4k games of next-gen.  Simply focusing on the CPU would only go so far as the demands of modern games go higher.

The machine you're describing would be the equivalent of a PS4/Xbox One 'Minus' in its generation.  You really wouldn't want that shit.

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  • 9 months later...
On 6/21/2018 at 1:54 PM, crispy4000 said:

 

The 4k games of today are not the 4k games of next-gen.  Simply focusing on the CPU would only go so far as the demands of modern games go higher.

The machine you're describing would be the equivalent of a PS4/Xbox One 'Minus' in its generation.  You really wouldn't want that shit.

Hmmmmmmm sure seems like MS is following the ole TomCat model. But Yall still insist that ole TomCat dont know what he's talking about.  current rumour for lockhart is that the gpu in it will be around the 5 terraflop mark.  Lower then the gpu in the 1x.  Should I start patting myself on the back now or when the system actually comes out

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What I think MS will do is a pay per the flop option. So you buy a base machine at a kiosk in 7-11 and it has 1 flop. Probably about $50. Then you can buy additional flops for $50 each that transmit via poe to stimulate the electrons on the silicon. Or, you can buy a subscription sort of like gamepass that gives you an extra 1/2 flop every month with an extra 1/2 flop on your birthday. 

 

If you look at MS’s current strategy this is obviously where they are going, the idea is this way they can pretty much hit all markets at the same time.

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15 minutes ago, stepee said:

I mean, you are usually wrong about things then just deny that you were wrong about them, so I’d just start patting yourself on the back now.

usually wrong my ass. Yall just dont understand the TomCat logic  i'm Right way more then i'm wrong

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It'll be a console that is more powerful than the X and then different versions of it (IE: no disc drive vs disc drive). They may offer a fancier version akin to the X for more $. I t'll be a generational leap (whatever that is now) in power - meaning devs will make games for it that will not run on the One. 

 

Generations will still exist for MS and Sony. They'll make accommodations for streaming (Sony already does this), but they're not going to do that all in until it's actually a viable option. 

 

We did this whole song and dance last time.

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12 hours ago, TomCat said:

Hmmmmmmm sure seems like MS is following the ole TomCat model. But Yall still insist that ole TomCat dont know what he's talking about.  current rumour for lockhart is that the gpu in it will be around the 5 terraflop mark.  Lower then the gpu in the 1x.  Should I start patting myself on the back now or when the system actually comes out

 

For the streaming’s box?  Because that’s the only way I could see that working.

 

You thought there would be 3 SKUs. And that a mid range one, not a streaming one, could get away with the X’s GPU compute power.  As if the CPU was the only thing holding it back from being a next gen platform.  That’s as wrong now as it ever was.

 

We know from Kotaku that the high end sku will be targeting over 10.7 teraflops.  Because next gen games will demand more when run natively.  Duh.

 

The appetite for devs to do more with newer hardware will inevitably outweigh their crossgen support for legacy platforms, Pro/X included. That is, outside of Microsoft (or Sony) patching those machines to be streaming boxes themselves.
 

Its why the mid gen refresh consoles have always been a bad value proposition.  You spend as much for a new console at launch, but get half the typical game release lifespan.

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2 hours ago, mikechorney said:

When you're wrong, you still claim you're right.

not true at all I'm not afraid to admit that i'm wrong. I wasnt wrong in our bet. I said 4k60 the game hit 4k60 at many points. does it go below that yes but I was told 4k60 wasnt even possible

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44 minutes ago, mikechorney said:

You just proved my point. 

nah how bout this we were both wrong.  You said it would never hit 4k60 I said it would.

 

https://www.windowscentral.com/star-wars-battlefront-ii-achieves-native-4k-resolution-xbox-one-x

 

 

runs native 4k down to 1800p  way better then you said it would. i think you said it would never hit 60

 

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Let's not get distracted from the reason he bumped the thread.
 

On 6/21/2018 at 9:50 AM, TomCat said:

MS will probably release 3 sku's  next gen.  The lowest model would be a Streaming Machine to take advantage of the cloud power and come in at around 150-200 bucks.  The Mid Skew  could easily just be a revamp  of the xbox 1x  and simply replace the jag cores with Ryzen cores  and just keep the same gpu that the x currently has.

 

12 hours ago, TomCat said:

current rumour for lockhart is that the gpu in it will be around the 5 terraflop mark.  Lower then the gpu in the 1x.  Should I start patting myself on the back now or when the system actually comes out


I guess he's proud that his "Mid Skew" idea is looking more like the low end "Streaming Machine" with recent rumors?

Pretty far off the mark, but predictably so.  The X isn't beefy enough to be a next-gen console in earnest, and a CPU boost alone wouldn't fix that.

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9 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

Let's not get distracted from the reason he bumped the thread.
 

 


I guess he's proud that his "Mid Skew" idea is looking more like the low end "Streaming Machine" with recent rumors?

Pretty far off the mark, but predictably so.  The X isn't beefy enough to be a next-gen console in earnest, and a CPU boost alone wouldn't fix that.

Don't worry, if these new rumours are true, TomCat will claim he is right.  Even though these rumours point to a 4TFLOP NAVI-based GPU, rather than the XB1X's 6TFLOP Polaris-based GPU.

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11 hours ago, TomCat said:

nah how bout this we were both wrong.  You said it would never hit 4k60 I said it would.

 

https://www.windowscentral.com/star-wars-battlefront-ii-achieves-native-4k-resolution-xbox-one-x

 

 

runs native 4k down to 1800p  way better then you said it would. i think you said it would never hit 60

 

I said XB1X wouldn't be able to run modern games at 4k60 with PC Ultra settings.  I wasn't wrong.

 

Are you referring to your bet with Ominous (or was it Lucian)?  Where you bet Battlefield would be 4k60 (when it wasn't)?

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7 minutes ago, mikechorney said:

Don't worry, if these new rumours are true, TomCat will claim he is right.  Even though these rumours point to a 4TFLOP NAVI-based GPU, rather than the XB1X's 6TFLOP Polaris-based GPU.

i will be right cause I was flat out told that the 1x gpu was not good enough for a next gen machine. turns out they might be using a gpu thats even less powerful then the 1x for next gen go figure.

 

TomCat's logic was that if the 1xgpu  could do 4k60 in games but is being severely limited by jaguar cores. replace the cores and you have a beast machine.  4-5 terraflops should be good enough to do 1440p with no issues. who know maybe if will be enough to do 4k30 with optimazions and 7nm construction in a closed system

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2 minutes ago, mikechorney said:

I said XB1X wouldn't be able to run modern games at 4k60 with PC Ultra settings.  I wasn't wrong.

 

Are you referring to your bet with Ominous (or was it Lucian)?  Where you bet Battlefield would be 4k60 (when it wasn't)?

i never said ULTRA settings  i woulda agreed with you on that one

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4 hours ago, TomCat said:

i will be right cause I was flat out told that the 1x gpu was not good enough for a next gen machine. turns out they might be using a gpu thats even less powerful then the 1x for next gen go figure.

 

It’s the streaming box, that’s why.  Not the mid-range sku you strangely predicted with a would-be last gen GPU. 

 

It’s just not good enough for a next-gen machine, at least as traditionally defined (hence, streaming box).  In specs, it has more in common with what the Wii was to its console generation.

 

4 hours ago, TomCat said:

TomCat's logic was that if the 1xgpu  could do 4k60 in games but is being severely limited by jaguar cores. replace the cores and you have a beast machine.  4-5 terraflops should be good enough to do 1440p with no issues. who know maybe if will be enough to do 4k30 with optimazions and 7nm construction in a closed system

 

4-6 teraflops will not be good enough when next gen games are designed for 10-12+ teraflops as the lead sku’s specs.

 

Like any generational transition, we’ll see legacy platforms cut off once developers stop targeting them.  That’s a good thing.  You wouldn’t want next gen games to be held back by needing to run on the X, or natively on the streaming-box hardware.

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22 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

It’s the streaming box, that’s why.  Not the mid-range sku you strangely predicted with a would-be last gen GPU. 

 

It’s just not good enough for a next-gen machine, at least as traditionally defined (hence, streaming box).  In specs, it has more in common with what the Wii was to its console generation.

 

 

4-6 teraflops will not be good enough when next gen games are designed for 10-12+ teraflops as the lead sku’s specs.

 

Like any generational transition, we’ll see legacy platforms cut off once developers stop targeting them.  That’s a good thing.  You wouldn’t want next gen games to be held back by needing to run on the X, or natively on the streaming-box hardware.

yall making this shit way to complicated.  dev wont have to not target the x1x when dev. next gen games.   the xbox ecco system is becoming more and more like pc.  in the pc realm dev have a limitless amount of pc configurations that thier games must work with.   You think Having 4 skus to dev for is gonna be a problem? I just dont see it.   xbox next will still be using the X86 processor   so it will be no problem for dev. to scale thier games down to work with the older systems.  will the old systems have all the bells and whistles of course not but that doesnt mean the games will be unplayable on them.  

 

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26 minutes ago, TomCat said:

yall making this shit way to complicated.  dev wont have to not target the x1x when dev. next gen games.   the xbox ecco system is becoming more and more like pc.  in the pc realm dev have a limitless amount of pc configurations that thier games must work with.   You think Having 4 skus to dev for is gonna be a problem? I just dont see it.   xbox next will still be using the X86 processor   so it will be no problem for dev. to scale thier games down to work with the older systems.  will the old systems have all the bells and whistles of course not but that doesnt mean the games will be unplayable on them.  

 

 

If you built a PC midway through last gen and played the current gen games of today on it, you’re going to have a bad time.  The same would go for the X in the future.

 

Just because it’s technically possible doesn’t mean developers would want to release a sku with their games playing/looking that way by default.  I suppose we do have Panic Button’s Switch ports as counter-examples. But the Switch is still very much an alive platform due to Nintendo’s positioning and handheld approach.

 

The rest of the industry will inevitably leave old hardware behind a year or two after the next gen begins.  Development cycles, for better or worse, are largely generation driven for big studios.

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