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A look forward to 2022 elections


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There are 34 Senate seats up for election in 2022. 20 are held by Republicans, 14 by Democrats.

 

The following are Senate seats that likely aren't going anywhere:

Richard Shelby (R, Alabama) - he might retire, but that seat still won't flip

Lisa Murkowski (R, Alaska)

John Boozman (R, Arkansas)

Alex Padilla (D, California) - he might get primaried, but it will remain Democrat

Richard Blumenthal (D, Connecticut)

Brian Schatz (D, Hawaii)

Mike Crapo (R, Idaho)

Tammy Duckworth (D, Illinois)

Todd Young (R, Indiana)

Jerry Moran (R, Kansas)

Rand Paul (R, Kentucky)

John Kennedy (R, Louisiana)

Chris Van Hollen (D, Maryland) - he might get primaried

Chuck Schumer (D, New York) - will AOC come for him?

John Hoeven (R, North Dakota)

James Lankford (R, Oklahoma)

Ron Wyden (D, Oregon)

Tim Scott (R, South Carolina)

John Thune (R, South Dakota)

Mike Lee (R, Utah)

Patrick Leahy (D, Vermont) - he's old as shit so he may retire

Patty Murray (D, Washington)

 

The following will be contentious:

Mark Kelly (D, Arizona)

Michael Bennett (D, Colorado) - likely won't flip, but Colorado did elect a Republican Senator as recently as 2014.

Marco Rubio (R, Florida) - this will be a fun one

Raphael Warnock (D, Georgia) - aww shit, here we go again

Chuck Grassley (R, Iowa) - maybe I'm being optimistic here, but if there is some kind of dissolution of the Trump cult, Iowa could be a toss-up. Grassley will be almost 90 years old, if he's still alive in 2022.

Roy Blunt (R, Missouri) - you wouldn't think it, but Blunt did not win by that much in 2016. Keep an eye on this one.

Pat Toomey (R, Pennsylvania) - he's retiring. Open election.

Catherine Cortez Masto (D, Nevada)

Rob Portman (R, Ohio) - Ohio went blue as recently as 2012

Richard Burr (R, North Carolina) - he's retiring. This will be a close one.

Maggie Hassan (D, New Hampshire)

Ron Johnson (R, Wisconsin)

 

 

So, by my count, there are 12 seats in real contention. 5 Democrat and 7 Republican. If we go strictly off of the 2020 presidential race as an indicator (which may not be accurate, as the fallout from the cult of Trump is as yet unknown), Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would flip to the Democrats, while the rest would remain the same. I'm wondering if we'll see a red shift in states like Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania after 2020.

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If you’re using their win margin in their last election to determine if it will be contentious or not, that’s not always trustworthy.

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Just now, Joe said:

If you’re using their win margin in their last election to determine if it will be contentious or not, that’s not always trustworthy.

True, but Senate elections are generally far enough apart that it's hard to really base it on much until the campaign starts.

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No idea what things are going to look like in 2 years, the GOP seems destined to be in an all out war with itself soon, and they've already started to peace out of elections based on the GA runoffs, and i really don't see Biden pulling the factions together for them like Obama did.  Dems on the other hand could see their engagement drop like with Obama, but then again SCOTUS could do some really stupid shit, and who knows if the memory of what GOP control of either chamber was like, stays fresh, lol.

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I see a lot of leftists on Twitter basically already accepting it as fate that this is going to be an exact repeat of 2008-2010, and that a GOP resurgence is inevitable. And when you look at how much gerrymandering and population distribution favors Republicans, and how tenuous the congressional majorities are, it's easy to feel that way. But the fact that Biden was up at the podium yesterday saying, correctly, that because interest rates on debt are so low that they can continue to deficit spend to address the crisis is seemingly a signal that at there are at least some voices around Biden who are determined not to repeat Obama's first term.

 

I think the single biggest thing is just finding a way to get the vaccine rollout stepped up. If people's social lives start feeling more normal again, I think that's a huge psychological effect that could overcome what might still be weak economic numbers that would usually be bad for incumbents.

 

There's another part of me, though, that looks at the stock market every once in a while and sees that seemingly every day Tesla stock is up like 5% again for seemingly no reason whatsoever, and thinks that a 2008-ish bubble bursting is absolutely inevitable, and that Biden's gonna get 100% blamed for it.

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  • 3 weeks later...

If Dems can't look at that +56% number and decide to go as big as possible as soon as possible on legislation and not give a shit about what kind of procedure they use to get there, then you might as well just shut the party down

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8 minutes ago, Ricofoley said:

If Dems can't look at that +56% number and decide to go as big as possible as soon as possible on legislation and not give a shit about what kind of procedure they use to get there, then you might as well just shut the party down

And if they're not sending out letters to accompany the checks with "Smiling Joe Biden Bucks" with his picture in 72 pt font it's political malpractice of another degree

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6 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

And if they're not sending out letters to accompany the checks with "Smiling Joe Biden Bucks" with his picture in 72 pt font it's political malpractice of another degree

 

Yep, they have to take full credit for it.  No "thank the Republicans that let us do it!" nonsense.

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  • 1 month later...
10 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

he's gonna raise $20MM of out of state money and lose by 50 points

 

 

Dems need to stop with the tough talkin’ veteran thing

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35 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Dems need to stop with the tough talkin’ veteran thing

 

Honestly if Democrats just nominated progressive women (and progressive, black women in the south) they would win more seats than their current strategy of "I've shot and killed people and have balls of steel because I'm an ex-marine-strategy" of nominating people.

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5 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Honestly if Democrats just nominated progressive women (and progressive, black women in the south) they would win more seats than their current strategy of "I've shot and killed people and have balls of steel because I'm an ex-marine-strategy" of nominating people.


Its just weird to me because while there certainly is a type of GOP voter very attracted to that, I think you potentially alienate more of the Dem base with that style than you’ll ever win over from the GOP. Just seems like a really poorly thought out angle. Play to your strengths and mix in some populism that can also be attractive to conservatives and you’ll probably be more successful than trying to peel off GOP voters by out patrioting them

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6 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


Its just weird to me because while there certainly is a type of GOP voter very attracted to that, I think you potentially alienate more of the Dem base with that style than you’ll ever win over from the GOP. Just seems like a really poorly thought out angle. Play to your strengths and mix in some populism that can also be attractive to conservatives and you’ll probably be more successful than trying to peel of GOP voters by out patrioting them

It's crazy to me that Bernie did better than Hillary in battleground states, which she then lost to Trump, and their takeaway was "we need more centrists."

 

Kind of almost makes you think they don't actually want to change anything...

 

:hmm:

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16 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

It's crazy to me that Bernie did better than Hillary in battleground states, which she then lost to Trump, and their takeaway was "we need more centrists."

 

Kind of almost makes you think they don't actually want to change anything...

 

:hmm:

 

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11 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Allah willing, he dies before 2024

 

All of the McDonald's preservatives in his system have probably made him immortal by now.

 

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