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Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president


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3 hours ago, Massdriver said:

Biden’s national 538 lead is now in the 8s. Let’s  hope the higher quality stuff brings him back. 

 

It's gone up due to a +9, +13, and +14 poll from three other firms.

 

Also, the equivalent 2016 day is 10/31. Clinton was coming down at this point and was sitting at +5.8 the day of the Comey Letter.

 

 

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For the undecideds, they disapprove of Trump by a 2:1 margin. Nath Cohn was asked about their polling in 2018 which underestimated Democrats. He says that they definitely were off in Republicans' favor in 2018 because they missed Hispanic turnout, not support, which helped people like now-Senator Sinema in Arizona, along with Beto's race being extremely close against Cruz. And Trump isn't at 50%, so this is a winnable state.

 

Also, DAMN at that gender gap with Hispanic voters:

 

 

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President: general election Texas
 
OCT 22-25, 2020
1,018 LV Biden
49%
Less Biden +1
    Trump
48%
   
    Jorgensen
1%
   
    Hawkins
0%
   
President: general election Texas
 
OCT 20-25, 2020
802 LV Biden
43%
Less Trump +4
    Trump
47%
   
    Jorgensen
3%
   
    Hawkins
0%
   
President: general election Texas
 
OCT 13-20, 2020
1,000 LV Biden
45%
Less Trump +5
    Trump
50%
   
    Jorgensen
2%
   
    Hawkins
0%
   

KEY

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

 

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2 minutes ago, Pikachu said:

I believe that the Democrats have polled about 4 points better than the polls in the last couple of election cycles in Texas. If you add 4 points to Biden, he pulls dead even with Trump in that Times poll.

 

This assumes that they haven't adjusted for these previous factors (which some have). But I do hope Biden over-performs there, obviously.

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