CayceG

What is a SAM if not an anti-air one-way attack drone?

Rumor has it, Ukraine has reactivated its S-200 missiles in some way and are able to use them for long range air defense. It's what is suspected in the shoot down of those AWACS a while back too.

No, that's the single thing I support someone--anyone!--striking inside Iran.

Could we take this to mean only support diplomatically? Like voicing support? Or does this mean actual material support like tanker, AWACS, etc logistical support?

Part of me thinks Iran will aim at some well-protected military installations with missiles that are all but intended to be intercepted. Iran seems to be really light-footed when it comes to the escalation ladder (especially in regards to our kinetic exchanges with them) so that's why I think this will be underwhelming. Now, how badly Tel Aviv overreacts... that's on them!

pointing at the sign In all seriousness, I do believe that regardless of whatever intel we have, the Iranian response will be less than we anticipate.

Pictured: Not a Tu-95

I'm very into this.

You're right. Christo Grozev is not a hack. But this report (which I watched earlier) still leaves most of the questions open. The real takeaways are something Grozev points out clearly: 1. The Russian GRU has an extensive network of spies and operatives actively doing shit all across Europe, Asia, and inside the US. 2. The Russians are definitely working on some "headache gun" research, as proven by the paperwork. These two don't have to be combined. They likely aren't. The report and investigation doesn't address the questions surrounding the health effects and the fact that multiple studies have not identified differences on MRIs between Havana-brain and non-Havana-brains or actual health effects to motor control, balance, and other things reported by Havana Syndrome people. It is just as likely that the stress of working jobs in national security involving Russia while knowing that you are being surveilled by GRU agents is hitting some people. PTSD, depression, things of that nature, can manifest in bad symptoms sometimes. And if people are primed to believe it, it can turn into real symptoms. But whether Havana Syndrome is real, whether the Russians are behind it, whether there really is a headache gun... all that is effective is meaningless. The idea that the Russians might have this working capability and is attacking our people is powerful enough on its own. This IDEA has affected dozens of people and taken them out of this important work. And that's bad enough.

Yes. The bridge ultimately stopped it, after all.

But not where it needed to be to prevent the accident. And also, that one doesn't look massive enough to have prevented or mitigated this.

You really only need these little circles in front of the piers: I say "only"... they're huge and would need to be lots and lots of mass and would be expensive. But in the case of the reconstructed bridge, I bet they'll be there, along with beefy rock "islands" that the main bridge columns are built on.

No. If it were, this would be like... the fifth time.

This is just all terrible.

I just don't know what to say anymore.