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SCOTUS will review Louisiana abortion law, setting up blockbuster election year showdown


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So what's the likely end game here? Am I being naive when I doubt that they entirely overturn Roe V Wade and decide that states can make abortion illegal? 

 

My guess is that they instead come up with some ridiculous framework under which states can impose incredibly burdensome abortion laws, allowing many states to do everything but banning it. Something like "while we recognize the courts' previous decision in allowing a woman to terminate her pregnancy, the government has no compelling interest in ensuring access to such a service, therefore any reasonable restrictions put in place for the safety of the mother or the fetus shall be allowed."

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3 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

So what's the likely end game here? Am I being naive when I doubt that they entirely overturn Roe V Wade and decide that states can make abortion illegal? 

 

My guess is that they instead come up with some ridiculous framework under which states can impose incredibly burdensome abortion laws, allowing many states to do everything but banning it. Something like "while we recognize the courts' previous decision in allowing a woman to terminate her pregnancy, the government has no compelling interest in ensuring access to such a service, therefore any reasonable restrictions put in place for the safety of the mother or the fetus shall be allowed."

 

This is what I expect. Conservatives can then claim it is the type of "compromise" that is worshiped in American politics, and the media will hail it as a reasonable decision.

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44 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

So what's the likely end game here? Am I being naive when I doubt that they entirely overturn Roe V Wade and decide that states can make abortion illegal? 

 

My guess is that they instead come up with some ridiculous framework under which states can impose incredibly burdensome abortion laws, allowing many states to do everything but banning it. Something like "while we recognize the courts' previous decision in allowing a woman to terminate her pregnancy, the government has no compelling interest in ensuring access to such a service, therefore any reasonable restrictions put in place for the safety of the mother or the fetus shall be allowed."

 

The goal is to always chip away, get some new restriction passed that wasn't there before, with an outside hope that you get a conservative court to overturn. 

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21 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

People who claim to value the lives of women should actually you know, vote maybe? It's not like conservatives have been especially secretive about wanting to overturn Roe.

They do though.

 

Just now, Jason said:

 

It quickly becomes a difference without a distinction.

MO had an emergency injunction to keep it's only abortion clinic open recently in light of the administrative restrictions placed on it. KY and MS and other southern states that have few providers who will be put through the ringer and may lock out access for millions of women.

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I don’t anticipate a full on overturning of Roe, but Casey will be replaced with the Gee standard. That gets pretty close to allowing states to ban from a practical standpoint as it will only be a matter of time before they find the exact soup of restrictions that closed up all the abortion shops in the state.

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4 hours ago, TwinIon said:

So what's the likely end game here? Am I being naive when I doubt that they entirely overturn Roe V Wade and decide that states can make abortion illegal? 

 

My guess is that they instead come up with some ridiculous framework under which states can impose incredibly burdensome abortion laws, allowing many states to do everything but banning it. Something like "while we recognize the courts' previous decision in allowing a woman to terminate her pregnancy, the government has no compelling interest in ensuring access to such a service, therefore any reasonable restrictions put in place for the safety of the mother or the fetus shall be allowed."

 

The problem with that is how it applies to guns. The court can't find there's no compelling interest in protecting access to a thing citizens have a right to obtain for abortion and have that precedent not apply to regulating the sales of guns.

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6 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

It can't in the sense that it will set a precedence for something they would ostensibly be against. The two things can't co-exist.

 

It can once SCOTUS is a fully-owned subsidiary of the GOP and precedent doesn't matter.

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8 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

 

It can't in the sense that it will set a precedence for something they would ostensibly be against. The two things can't co-exist.

Yeah, I was just joking about the fact that logical consistency doesn't matter anymore. Whatever advances the political end of the current court makeup will largely win the day.

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1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

Yeah, I was just joking about the fact that logical consistency doesn't matter anymore. Whatever advances the political end of the current court makeup will largely win the day.

 

I'm hoping that this one is too inconsistent to support though, I suppose.

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2 hours ago, Anathema- said:

 

The problem with that is how it applies to guns. The court can't find there's no compelling interest in protecting access to a thing citizens have a right to obtain for abortion and have that precedent not apply to regulating the sales of guns.

 

We can nickle and dime the right to bear arms until it is essentially no longer a right, but we can't nickle and dime abortion rights I guess.

 
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15 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

We can nickle and dime the right to bear arms until it is essentially no longer a right, but we can't nickle and dime abortion rights I guess.

 

 

Point is that I don't see how we don't nickle and dime them together. The arguments are logically inextricable. 

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