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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (22 Mar 2024) - Poland: If America is an unreliable ally, then nations must begin building their own nuclear weapons for deterrence


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Just incredible that Soviet/Russian tanks are so weak on the top of their turrets...and that inside the turret there is no barrier between the crew and all the ammo. If you can pierce the armour on top, it sets off the ammo and begins a cookoff that eventually explodes the whole thing. However, in this case they didn't even need to do that, as they dropped a bomb through an open hatch:

 

 

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Russia, being the masters of morale that they are, are currently running army games with other countries inside Russia to show off their tech. This video is now spreading with Russian/DNR/LNR troops in Ukraine:

 

 

The big deal (as the soldiers are saying) is that they are being given really old T-62 tanks to fight a war, while more modern T-72s are being used by untrained crews for entertainment.

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3 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Just incredible that Soviet/Russian tanks are so weak on the top of their turrets...and that inside the turret there is no barrier between the crew and all the ammo. If you can pierce the armour on top, it sets off the ammo and begins a cookoff that eventually explodes the whole thing. However, in this case they didn't even need to do that, as they dropped a bomb through an open hatch:

 

 

This is a known weakness we were trained to exploit 

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7 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Ah yes, the fine historic tradition of great nations! Big talk, and then ghosting your allies quietly as your respective nation gets distracted by something else. This plus the coming winter must be weighing heavily on the Ukrainian leadership. 

 

I'm beginning to think that ADHD is the normal human condition.

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ISW analysis for 17 August 2022:

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

Russian military leadership is likely increasingly losing confidence in the security of Crimea following recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military objects in Crimea. Russian sources reported on August 17 that Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov had replaced

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian military leadership is likely increasingly losing confidence in the security of Crimea following recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military objects in Crimea. Russian sources reported on August 17 that Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov had replaced Admiral Igor Osipov as the commander of the Crimean-based Black Sea Fleet (BSF).[1] The Russian information space, however, was evidently eager to maintain a high level of secrecy regarding Sokolov’s appointment due to the claimed threat of “terrorist danger” in Sevastopol.[2] Recent Ukrainian strikes (associated with Ukrainian partisans and Ukrainian Armed Forces) on Russian military assets in Crimea, including the headquarters of the BSF in Sevastopol, have likely placed Russian forces on high alert and led to the restructuring of force composition, logistics, and leadership of the Russian grouping in Crimea in order to mitigate the impact of further strikes. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate, for example, reported that Russian forces are relocating dozens of fixed and rotary wing aircraft stationed in forward airfields in Crimea to areas deeper in the Crimean Peninsula and in mainland Russia.[3]

 

Russian leadership and the Russian nationalist information space have become increasingly invested in framing recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian military assets in Crimea as acts of terrorism in order to shift the information narrative away from Russian violations of international law and calls on the West to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. Russian sources inaccurately described the strikes on the BSF headquarters, an ammunition depot, and the Saki Airbase as acts of terrorism. The Russian-appointed head of occupied Crimea, Sergey Askenov, claimed on August 17 that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in Crimea had neutralized cells of the Hizb ut-Tahrir organization (an Islamist fundamentalist political organization that has historically been active in Central Asia and in Crimea amongst the Crimean Tatar community and is banned in Russia) in Dzhankoi and Yalta.[4] Aksenov accused the Ukrainian government of coordinating Hizb ut-Tahrir's operations in Crimea without providing any evidence. Russian officials will likely increasingly link Ukrainian partisan attacks against occupied territories with operations conducted by organizations affiliated with Islamist extremism in an attempt to alienate the Ukrainian partisan movement from the international community and undermine Ukraine’s calls to officially designate Russia as a state-sponsor of terrorism. Attacks against legitimate Russian military targets fall well within the purview of legal use of force and are not acts of terrorism, nor is there any evidence to suggest that Islamist extremists conducted these attacks.[5]

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian military leadership is falsely claiming that recent attacks on Russian military objects in Crimea are terrorist attacks to deflect calls to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism.
  • Russian forces attempted several unsuccessful assaults near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border in tactically challenging forest areas.
  • Russian forces continued to unsuccessfully attack settlements southeast of Siversk.
  • Russian forces launched several assaults northeast and south of Bakhmut, and are likely attempting to improve tactical positions near Horlivka.
  • Russian forces made limited gains northwest of Donetsk City and near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast administrative border.
  • Russian forces are likely preparing to defend their ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the Melitopol-Tokmak-Berdyansk triangle by mining settlements on the eastern Zaporizhia Oblast frontline.
  • Russian federal subjects are continuing to form new volunteer units and advertise contract service while facing recruitment challenges.
  • Russian occupation authorities are struggling to increase control measures in occupied territories amidst increased partisan activity.

 

DraftUkraineCoTAugust17,2022.png

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Ukraine is putting in MAJOR work tonight. Like...MAJOR:

 

 

Multiple strikes inside Russia in the Belgorod oblast, as well as multiple strikes in Crimea. It appears Ukraine may also be performing strikes in the Kerch Strait. It should be noted that the only land route out of Crimea into Russia is via a bridge across that strait.

 

 

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So, initially the strikes in Crimea were thought to be ATACMS (launched from the same vehicles used for HIMARS), but Ukraine then put cold water on that, saying instead that special forces were performing strikes behind enemy lines. That is maybe believable in limited ways in Crimea. But that they are doing the same across the Belgorod province in Russia? Separated by 150km from each other? Just my opinion, but I think Ukraine is using ATACMS, but the US has made them say otherwise to provide deniability.

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Belgorod is within range of Drones and Tochkas. 

 

I haven't seen anything reporting explosions on the eastern side of Crimea outside of the air defense ops. That could be from them engaging drones. 

 

 

I don't believe Ukraine has ATACAMS but I think they may have their homebrew short range missiles like what was used against the Saky air base. If that's what hit Belbek, that is within range. 

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29 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

Whatever hit that airbase was massive so that in itself narrows it down. Would ATACMS be that large of an explosion?

Aircraft most likely aircraft and bombs/missiles exploding, pictures earlier showed aircraft just lined right up to get annihilated cause Russians are stupid.

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14 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Aircraft most likely aircraft and bombs/missiles exploding, pictures earlier showed aircraft just lined right up to get annihilated cause Russians are stupid.

So you think they were secondary explosions?  Didn't look that way to me. Usually secondary explosions cook off unevenly, delayed and not all at once.

The explosions at the air base were uniform and massive.

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16 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

So you think they were secondary explosions?  Didn't look that way to me. Usually secondary explosions cook off unevenly, delayed and not all at once.

The explosions at the air base were uniform and massive.

Generally the attacking missiles explosions are small, the big ones are from hitting ammo stockpiles or fuel, like unless its something dropped from a B-52 you're just not going to get a huge explosion.

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ISW analysis for 18 August 2022:

 

 
WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022. Russian and Ukrainian sources did not claim any new territorial gains on August 18. However, Russian forces still conducted

 

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. 

 

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.[1] Russian and Ukrainian sources did not claim any new territorial gains on August 18. However, Russian forces still conducted limited and unsuccessful ground assaults across the eastern axis on August 18.

 

Russian sources reported explosions across Crimea—possibly caused by Russian air defenses, Ukrainian reconnaissance, or a Ukrainian attack—the night of August 18. Three local sources told Reuters that at least four explosions struck around Belbek Airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, near Sevastopol.[2] The Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, claimed that preliminary information indicated that Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian drone and caused no damage.[3] Video of a large explosion that circulated on social media in the immediate aftermath of the reported explosions was from a previous engagement on August 8 and is not from the vicinity of the airbase.[4] 

 

Russian sources also claimed that Russian air defenses shot down a drone near the Kerch Bridge between Crimea and Russia on the night of August 18 as social media footage showed active air defenses in the area.[5] Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak had tweeted on August 17 that the Kerch bridge was illegally constructed and ”must be dismantled.”[6] The railway side of the Kerch bridge is an important target for Ukraine to disrupt Russian logistics capabilities into occupied Ukraine. Social media videos also claimed to depict active Russian air defenses at a Russian base in Nova Kakhova in southern Kherson oblast the night of August 18, suggesting a possibly coordinated series of Ukrainian attacks, if there were attacks, or drone overflights.[7]

 

ISW cannot independently verify whether Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian UAV, or whether any UAV was present in Kerch or Belbek. A Russian social media user posted video claiming to be at Belbek on the evening of August 18, showing no apparent evidence of a strike there.[8] Ukrainian forces will likely continue their campaign to strike Russian military targets in Russian-occupied Crimea to degrade Russian logistics capabilities and degrade Russian capabilities to sustain operations on the west bank of the Dnipro River, as ISW previously assessed.[9] However, it is unclear at the time of publication whether the reported explosions are due to Ukrainian attacks or reconnaissance, poor Russian handling of military equipment, successful Russian air defenses, or nervous Russian defenders who are likely steeling themselves for additional attacks in areas that the Russian military had believed until now to be out of the range of Ukrainian forces.

 

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be setting information conditions to blame Ukrainian forces for future false flag operations at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). The chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, claimed in an August 18 briefing that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a provocation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the provocation is meant to coincide with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ visit to Ukraine.[10] Kirillov accused Ukrainian forces of preparing to stage this provocation in order to blame Russia for causing a nuclear disaster and create a 30km-wide exclusion zone around the NPP.[11] Kirillov’s briefing, which was amplified by the Russian MoD, coincides with reports that Russian authorities told Russian NPP employees to not come in to work tomorrow, August 19.[12] Leaked footage from within the plant shows five Russian trucks very close to one of the reactors at the NPP on an unspecified date, which may indicate the Russian forces are setting conditions to cause a provocation at the plant and to shift the information narrative to blame Ukraine for any kinetic events that occur on the territory of the plant.[13]

 

Key Takeaways

  • There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on August 18, 2022 for the first time since July 6, 2022.
  • Russian sources reported a series of unidentified and unconfirmed explosions across Crimea on the night of August 18.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense may be setting information conditions to blame Ukraine for a false flag attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Russian forces conducted ground assaults south of Siversk and northeast and south of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued conducting offensive operations north, west, and southwest of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful ground assault on the Zaporizhia axis.
  • Ukrainian officials confirmed additional strikes on a Russian military base and warehouse in Kherson Oblast.
  • The Kremlin is likely leveraging established Cossack organizations to support Russian force generation efforts.
  • Russian occupation officials continued preparations for the long-term integration of occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia.

 

 

DraftUkraineCoTAugust18,2022.png

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In the first month of the war, a Ukrainian soldier was asked how they were managing to resist the Russian invasion, and what factors were helping. In a quote that will likely be put in history books, he replied "We are lucky that they are so fucking stupid." You can apply that quote almost daily to what the Russians do:

 

 

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  • CitizenVectron changed the title to Россия invades Україна | "We are very lucky that they are so fucking stupid"

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