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GuyWhoPredictsThings

This is an excellent article about the ramifications for Trump related to his lawyer being raided

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https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/michael-cohen-and-the-end-stage-of-the-trump-presidency?mbid=social_twitter

 

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There is no longer one major investigation into Donald Trump, focussed solely on collusion with Russia. There are now at least two, including a thorough review of Cohen’s correspondence.

 

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However, I am unaware of anybody who has taken a serious look at Trump’s business who doesn’t believe that there is a high likelihood of rampant criminality. In Azerbaijan, he did business with a likely money launderer for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. In the Republic of Georgia, he partnered with a group that was being investigated for a possible role in the largest known bank-fraud and money-laundering case in history. In Indonesia, his development partner is “knee-deep in dirty politics”; there are criminal investigations of his deals in Brazil; the F.B.I. is reportedly looking into his daughter Ivanka’s role in the Trump hotel in Vancouver, for which she worked with a Malaysian family that has admitted to financial fraud. Back home, Donald, Jr., and Ivanka were investigated for financial crimes associated with the Trump hotel in SoHo—an investigation that was halted suspiciously. His Taj Mahal casino received what was then the largest fine in history for money-laundering violations.

 

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Listing all the financial misconduct can be overwhelming and tedious. I have limited myself to some of the deals over the past decade, thus ignoring Trump’s long history of links to New York Mafia figures and other financial irregularities. It has become commonplace to say that enough was known about Trump’s shady business before he was elected; his followers voted for him precisely because they liked that he was someone willing to do whatever it takes to succeed, and they also believe that all rich businesspeople have to do shady things from time to time. In this way of thinking, any new information about his corrupt past has no political salience. Those who hate Trump already think he’s a crook; those who love him don’t care.

 

I believe this assessment is wrong. Sure, many people have a vague sense of Trump’s shadiness, but once the full details are better known and digested, a fundamentally different narrative about Trump will become commonplace. Remember: we knew a lot about problems in Iraq in May, 2003. Americans saw TV footage of looting and heard reports of U.S. forces struggling to gain control of the entire country. We had plenty of reporting, throughout 2007, about various minor financial problems. Somehow, though, these specific details failed to impress upon most Americans the over-all picture. It took a long time for the nation to accept that these were not minor aberrations but, rather, signs of fundamental crisis. 

 

The thesis is more direct: that this is the end stage of the presidency, whenever that end is. It's hard to say (anyone who rejects everything is illogical, but I can't see myself 100% of the endgame), but the biggest point -- that there's a lot in Cohen's past for authorities -- coincides neatly with what many educated people were saying when the special counsel investigation began: there may be things peripheral to the Russia investigation, similar to Lewinsky and Whitewater, that Americans do not fully appreciate until much later.

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Good article other than I don't think there's anything to suggest we're heading to the endgame of Trump's presidency. We're possibly heading towards something that could signal that but we're too many steps away.

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33 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

Good article other than I don't think there's anything to suggest we're heading to the endgame of Trump's presidency. We're possibly heading towards something that could signal that but we're too many steps away.

I honestly cannot believe that an editor actually let the author get away with such ridiculous hyperbole.

 

The author says this in one paragraph:

 

In Iraq and with the financial crisis, it was helpful, as a reporter, to be able to divide the world into those who actually understand what was happening and those who said hopeful nonsense. 

 

And then immediately follows it with this:

 

I thought of those earlier experiences this week as I began to feel a familiar clarity about what will unfold next in the Trump Presidency. There are lots of details and surprises to come, but the endgame of this Presidency seems as clear now as those of Iraq and the financial crisis did months before they unfolded...This is the week we know, with increasing certainty, that we are entering the last phase of the Trump Presidency. This doesn’t feel like a prophecy; it feels like a simple statement of the apparent truth.

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6 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

I honestly cannot believe that an editor actually let the author get away with such ridiculous hyperbole.

 

You can't get the clicks without the bait.

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33 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

I'm not convinced Congress will do anything even if they have irrefutable evidence of Trump's illegal activity. 

The most that will happen is impeachment in the House (if the Democrats take it outright or cut the GOP lead to a handful of seats).  There is a near-zero probability of 2/3 of the Senate voting for conviction/removal from office.

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1 minute ago, SFLUFAN said:

The most that will happen is impeachment in the House (if the Democrats take it outright or cut the GOP lead to a handful of seats).  There is a near-zero probability of 2/3 of the Senate voting for conviction/removal from office.

Better chances if the economy tanks

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3 hours ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Is it that time of the week already?! OK, I'll play the clip!

 

Nah, man, that's why I didn't phrase the thread title the same way the article did. It does, however, make very good points about the writing on the wall; it's very hard to say that things won't worsen, nor does the 40% (still crappy) support mean it'll stay that way no matter what happens. Cohen's going to provide a lot of juicy information whether he likes it or not.

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2 hours ago, SFLUFAN said:

The most that will happen is impeachment in the House (if the Democrats take it outright or cut the GOP lead to a handful of seats).  There is a near-zero probability of 2/3 of the Senate voting for conviction/removal from office.

 

I'm not completely convinced that you couldn't get 2/3 of the current Senate to vote to convict. They're a bunch of opportunists. You're definitely never going to get the Senate GOP to actively agitate for impeachment but if they were forced to make a decision because the House passed articles of impeachment, there would be political expediency for saving their own hides by voting to convict. So it would come down to whether they thought that was more expedient than pissing off the die-hard base (and a bunch of them just got reelected in 2016, right?).

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12 hours ago, Jason said:

I'm not completely convinced that you couldn't get 2/3 of the current Senate to vote to convict. They're a bunch of opportunists. You're definitely never going to get the Senate GOP to actively agitate for impeachment but if they were forced to make a decision because the House passed articles of impeachment, there would be political expediency for saving their own hides by voting to convict. So it would come down to whether they thought that was more expedient than pissing off the die-hard base (and a bunch of them just got reelected in 2016, right?).

 

I'm not saying that this couldn't ever happen, but I don't think there's anything that currently suggests it's likely. Like Silver said in his tweets, the reaction to Trumpism isn't linear so I don't think expecting to go from warm, hot, simmering, then boiling water is a completely rational expectation.

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13 hours ago, GuyWhoPredictsThings said:

 

Nah, man, that's why I didn't phrase the thread title the same way the article did. It does, however, make very good points about the writing on the wall; it's very hard to say that things won't worsen, nor does the 40% (still crappy) support mean it'll stay that way no matter what happens. Cohen's going to provide a lot of juicy information whether he likes it or not.

I truly hope you are right, but I've watched too much of the last 20 years of politics to believe things will do anything other than slide sideways. 

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1 hour ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

I'm not saying that this couldn't ever happen, but I don't think there's anything that currently suggests it's likely. Like Silver said in his tweets, the reaction to Trumpism isn't linear so I don't think expecting to go from warm, hot, simmering, then boiling water is a completely rational expectation.

 

Indeed, but that also works both ways, which I think was the point he was making:

 

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Trump's problems have (IMO) become considerably more severe over the past 6 months. And yet, his approval rating hasn't worsened (it's actually improved by a point or two). The degree of Congressional resistance hasn't meaningfully increased.

One can take this point too far. Public and Congress reaction to Trump scandals isn’t necessarily linear. 

 

Just because there hasn't been a slow erosion among Republicans doesn't mean the bottom can't fall out, either. I appreciate his healthy skepticism, though, which comes with the job, but he's also how I came across the article as well. :P 

 

57 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

I truly hope you are right, but I've watched too much of the last 20 years of politics to believe things will do anything other than slide sideways. 

 

Remember that in a court of law, no amount of Fox News and Republicans governing like morons is going to have an effect. Unless Cohen is squeaky clean, he's holding onto juicy stuff. Impeachment level? Maybe. Drip-drip-drip that haunts Trump? Possibly. Criminal/shady dealings with international players? Perhaps. But I highly doubt Cohen is clean, and this usually doesn't happen to someone squeaky clean.

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