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GuyWhoPostsThings

BO Report: Apes goes bananas, Spider-Man slings down ~60%

43 posts in this topic

44 minutes ago, EternallDarkness said:

not as bananas as the studio wish, as I believe that is significantly down from when movie 2 hit

 

It did better than their estimates, though not as much as what BOM forecasted.

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13 minutes ago, GuyWhoPostsThings said:

It did better than their estimates, though not as much as what BOM forecasted.

 

What on Earth was the studio estimate then?

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1 hour ago, SFLUFAN said:

 

What on Earth was the studio estimate then?

 

These opening weekend estimations are dumb as hell nowadays. Every studio wants their movie bringing in Jurassic World / Marvel numbers. Totally unrealistic. 

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59 minutes ago, Hurdyb1 said:

 

These opening weekend estimations are dumb as hell nowadays. Every studio wants their movie bringing in Jurassic World / Marvel numbers. Totally unrealistic. 

 

The studios use the estimates as P.R. for themselves and against rival studios. For instance, rival studios had War for The Planet of the Apes tracking much higher than Warners did knowing that it probably wouldn't meet those numbers. War did decent business, but given how much it cost and how good the revies were, I don't think Warners is jumping up and down internally. I would have expected that they wanted it to do better than its predecessor. 

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1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

The studios use the estimates as P.R. for themselves and against rival studios. For instance, rival studios had War for The Planet of the Apes tracking much higher than Warners did knowing that it probably wouldn't meet those numbers. War did decent business, but given how much it cost and how good the revies were, I don't think Warners is jumping up and down internally. I would have expected that they wanted it to do better than its predecessor. 

 

That's pretty much what I was getting at - if this did "better" than Warner's projections, then Warner's estimates must've been really quite low.

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Warner is probably sweating Dunkirk as well.  There is little doubt in my mind that it will be critically acclaimed, but that the audience reception will be very subdued.

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10 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

 

That's pretty much what I was getting at - if this did "better" than Warner's projections, then Warner's estimates must've been really quite low.

 

Yeah I said Warner's, my bad... this is a Fox film and they apparently had realistic expectations for it so maybe they ARE happy with it especially considering its gonna have legs because of good word of mouth and it hasn't opened overseas yet.

 

http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-spiderman-homecoming-box-office-weekend-1202128838/

 

 

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The movie in its debut played akin to a non-superhero threequel, off 21% from Dawn, and is considered OK by industry standards. If there’s any kind of sigh here, it’s just that when studios build movies this big, and War carries a $150M production cost before P&A, the expectation is to swell, and 20th Century Fox pulled out all the stops in promoting this threequel 10 months in advance at New York’s Comic-Con with a six minute unfinished scene and a teaser trailer. The gorilla’s horde of cash here will come from overseas, which is where Rise (63%) and Dawn (70%) reaped the most. Heading into the weekend, rival studios had some pretty aggressive estimates out there for War, but Fox never saw the threequel in that upper box office sphere,  especially in this summer marketplace which has been severe for any title that’s not part of a superhero franchise.

 

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3 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

Warner is probably sweating Dunkirk as well.  There is little doubt in my mind that it will be critically acclaimed, but that the audience reception will be very subdued.

 

Dunkirk is a perfect example of counter programming... its opening against Valerian which will more than likely be number one. I think they figured Nolan's fanboy cred coupled with a lack of movies for "grownups" this summer could translate to decent business. Plus the movie is really tight from what I've heard, so they could have made a smart bet here.

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5 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

Yeah I said Warner's, my bad... this is a Fox film and they apparently had realistic expectations for it so maybe they ARE happy with it especially considering its gonna have legs because of good word of mouth and it hasn't opened overseas yet.

 

Whoops!  I goofed as well as I meant to say Fox regarding "Apes"!

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4 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Dunkirk is a perfect example of counter programming... its opening against Valerian which will more than likely be number one. I think they figured Nolan's fanboy cred coupled with a lack of movies for "grownups" this summer could translate to decent business. Plus the movie is really tight from what I've heard, so they could have made a smart bet here.

 

I know that I'm pretty much the target audience for Dunkirk as there is no way in hell I'm setting foot in any theater showing Valerian, not with two lead actors whose faces I want to smash through a plate glass window.

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Just now, SFLUFAN said:

 

I know that I'm pretty much the target audience for Dunkirk as there is no way in hell I'm setting foot in any theater showing Valerian.

 

Lol me neither. I'd be curious to see those VFX on the big screen, but the movie looks dumb as shit :lol:

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3 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Dunkirk is a perfect example of counter programming... its opening against Valerian which will more than likely be number one. I think they figured Nolan's fanboy cred coupled with a lack of movies for "grownups" this summer could translate to decent business. Plus the movie is really tight from what I've heard, so they could have made a smart bet here.

I don't know. I think next weekend the #1 is going to be pretty low thanks to all the competition, and I think Dunkirk will come out on top. Apes and Spider-Man will probably be a bit under $30M and $20M respectively. Even though Dunkirk is tracking low I don't see it making less than the $30M that Unbroken made. I think $35-40M seems about right.

 

I'm guessing Valerian only takes in $20-25M. Sure, it's got some great special effects, but it's going to open to worse reviews than the other films already mentioned, in 600 fewer theaters than Apes, with no real stars and no established brand. I look at Valerian as a John Carter or Tomorrowland but without Disney behind it.

 

Still, who knows. Those are all three close enough that it could easily go either way. I was able to book a weekend showing of Dunkirk in 70mm in a mostly empty theater.

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52 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

Dunkirk is a perfect example of counter programming... its opening against Valerian which will more than likely be number one. I think they figured Nolan's fanboy cred coupled with a lack of movies for "grownups" this summer could translate to decent business. Plus the movie is really tight from what I've heard, so they could have made a smart bet here.

 

No way does Valerian open bigger than Dunkirk, and I say that as someone who can't wait for Valerian.

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Dunkirk is an adult skewing rated movie opening up in the middle of summer. Valerian is a special effects driven, PG 13 teen fantasy and its getting a LOT more advertising than Dunkirk. Maybe it does open higher than Valerian... Valerian looks AWFUL, but I don't know if it opens at number one with the Apes and Spiderman still doing decent business. This weekend is up for grabs really, but I don't think Dunkirk is a sure number one movie given its subject matter and demographic. Either way, I think Dunkirk is gonna do good business though.

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Valerian looks fun and is sitting at 70% on RT, but it's not connected to anything. Dunkirk is a Christopher Nolan "war film." It'll open better than Valerian. Sadly I think both movies are going to suffer overall from a crowded box office. Too much is out at this point. I don't think either movie will impress.

 

The highest grossing film this weekend may not break $40mil.

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1 hour ago, Wild said:

 

No way does Valerian open bigger than Dunkirk, and I say that as someone who can't wait for Valerian.

No way Dunkirk comes out on top. I wish it would, but Vaalerion is going to beat it by a large margin. 

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I'm definitely going to see Dunkirk this weekend, and possibly Valerian as well if I get a chance. That would make 6 trips to the theater in 4 weeks (in addition to Baby Driver, Spiderman Homecoming, War/Apes, and The Big Sick). It helps that I have an awesome theater right around the corner from work, and I'm usually off in time to catch the earliest, almost empty matinee. 

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53 minutes ago, Wild said:

Valerian looks fun and is sitting at 70% on RT, but it's not connected to anything. Dunkirk is a Christopher Nolan "war film." It'll open better than Valerian. Sadly I think both movies are going to suffer overall from a crowded box office. Too much is out at this point. I don't think either movie will impress.

 

The highest grossing film this weekend may not break $40mil.

 

Yeah there's a LOT out this weekend so neither film will set the world on fire... Valerian is at 70%? I'm kinda surprised because it looks terrible but maybe I'm wrong lol

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2 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

Dunkirk is a perfect example of counter programming... its opening against Valerian which will more than likely be number one. I think they figured Nolan's fanboy cred coupled with a lack of movies for "grownups" this summer could translate to decent business. Plus the movie is really tight from what I've heard, so they could have made a smart bet here.

 

 

Warner is looking for a mid to upper 40s open for Dunkirk.

 

I legit would not be surprised if Valerian comes in sub-30. STX was so desperate for dates that they offer 1 week commitments to juice the screen count.

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Just now, sblfilms said:

 

 

Warner is looking for a mid to upper 40s open for Dunkirk.

 

I legit would not be surprised if Valerian comes in sub-30. STX was so desperate for dates that they offer 1 week commitments to juice the screen count.

 

What's the word of mouth on Valerian? I have no idea what to think of it... seems like a movie that SHOULD be seen on the big screen, but looks like nonsense.

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33 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

What's the word of mouth on Valerian? I have no idea what to think of it... seems like a movie that SHOULD be seen on the big screen, but looks like nonsense.

 

I've seen that some of the testing response was pretty similar to recent sci-fantasy product like Cloud Atlas (which I actually like a lot) which did not do well. I think it's going to bomb at the box office, but find a decent audience when it comes to home video. Not going to turn in a Fifth Element where it gains a major following at home though.

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I honestly don't know if there is a good source for Box office tracking numbers that are in any way reliable, but this old (July 4) article on Deadline quotes a $20M opening for Valerian and $35 for Dunkirk. This more recent post on BoxOffice.com expects a $55M weekend for Dunkirk and $18.5M for Valerian, with Dunkirk's numbers trending up and Valerian's trending down.

 

Interstellar did $47M with middling competition, so I think $55M for Dunkirk is on the high side, but $35-40M seems very reasonable and likely to win the weekend.

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What the heck happened with Spider Man? That's almost on the same level of dropoff as Batman vs Superman and Suicide Squad. I thought these Marvel movies would have a bit more staying power than that.

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13 minutes ago, NuBlood said:

What the heck happened with Spider Man? That's almost on the same level of dropoff as Batman vs Superman and Suicide Squad. I thought these Marvel movies would have a bit more staying power than that.

 

They're fine with the Spiderman dropoff. It's only the third best dropoff in a Spiderman movie behind the first Spiderman and the 3rd. I don't think Sony marvel is displeased with its performance.

 

Quote

Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: Homecoming is estimated to file $45.2M in weekend 2 which is much lower than the industry expected, but its 61% slide is on par with the second weekend declines of Amazing Spider-Man 2 (-61%) and Spider-Man 3 (-62%). Homecoming‘s second weekend dollar-wise is the third best after Spider-Man ($71.4M) and Spider-Man 3 ($58.1M) and slightly ahead of Spider-Man 2 ($45.1M). Thanks to its solid business during the week, the pic’s $208.3M running domestic cume by today will outstrip the lifetime U.S./Canada take of the previous title Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($202.9M). Through Sunday, Homecoming will be pacing 13% behind Spider-Man 3 which finaled at $336.5M domestic. On Friday, RelishMix reported continued wattage on social with the view counts for its top 25 spots on YouTube still in the 95k-200k range per day which is strong for the superhero genre. Robert Downey Jr. is still adding a consistent +24k new fans a day on Instagram and continues to plug the movie with Stan Lee. Tom Holland is also hot on Instagram with 2.6M followers and adding 74k new fans per day, all week long.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, NuBlood said:

What the heck happened with Spider Man? That's almost on the same level of dropoff as Batman vs Superman and Suicide Squad. I thought these Marvel movies would have a bit more staying power than that.

 

I think Planet of the Apes happened. The series that surprised everyone kept the momentum going to this chapter. I knew that Spider-Man would take a hit when Apes was coming. 

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